Measurement of English farming technological change, 1523–1900

I have argued that for the period from 1661 to 1850, patent data in England were consistent in that no official changes in methods and standards of issuance occurred. Book data on titles published on farming production methods were similarly consistent from 1523 to the mid-19th century because the market for books developed gradually and the technology of printing was not substantially changed until the mid-19th century.My main point is that data on output of titles of books on farming productive techniques in England are useful measures of technological change. Books did have information on good production methods and could express productive ideas where a patent may not be issued. Further, the literacy rate of farmers was high so that books were likely an important source of ideas on farming production methods. Finally, the fluctuations in the book data were highly related to the fluctuations in the patent data, suggesting that a common set of factors caused those fluctuations. The high correlations between the detrended book and patent data indicate that if we accept patenting as a useful measure of technology we may also accept book title output of a technical nature as a good measure of technical change.I used the data for a simple analysis of the trend growth rate of agricultural technology in England from 1551 to 1850. While there is limited evidence to show that the subperiod 1651–1750 saw a slowing in the trend of development of farming technology, I argue that a division of the entire period into subperiods is too simplistic. A more fruitful approach would be an analysis of the underlying forces that determined the trend of development of the technology of English agriculture.The next step is an analysis of the forces that influenced technological development of English farming. From an economic point of view, market forces play an important role in influencing technology. Because such an analysis deserves careful consideration, I leave that to another paper (see Sullivan and Simon, 1983).     

A new approach to household fertility behavior

A 1st step is taken in this discussion towards the explicit theoretical recognition that fertility decisions are made by pairs of individuals who conceivably have different preferences or are in different circumstances. The focus is on disagreements between spouses over desired family size. The discussion begins by identifying the costs and benefits of child services to each spouse, which involves consideration of the type of interdependency of the utility functions as well as the nature of the externality problem in the production of child service. Specific examples are included of situations in which disagreement is likely to occur. Using the National Fertility Survey of 1965, it is possible to test whether disagreements are more likely to occur in these identified cases. 2 types of fertility conflict are predicted: the wife desires fewer children than the husband and the reverse. The National Fertility Survey (NFS) data set contains 5617 interview records. A sample of 1559 women who were married once, husband present, nonmenopausal, aged 25-39 with valid answers to all questions were selected. Husband's schooling in excess of wife's increased the probability that conflict of the husband demanding fewer children type will arise and the probability was increased at higher levels of income. The demand for quality rose with income and placed additional pressure on a husband with more education to assist (via lost leisure time) in the creation of quality. The effects were highly nonlinear. Higher levels of status of the wife's (potential) job had the predicted effect of making wife demands fewer children conflict more likely, but only through intermediate levels of status. Another variable which had a significant influence on the probability of conflict was the husband's age, with higher husband's age leading to husband demanding fewer children than wife conflict.     

Patterns of age and coverage errors in Tropical African surveys

The concept of calculating averages of African age distributions is developed in an attempt to distinguish the effect of age and coverage errors in demographic surveys in Tropical Africa from real fluctuations in the age structure. The concept is also used to discern different patterns of age errors and omissions and to indicate the extent of these errors in African age data. The method described is applied to data from 50 surveys undertaken in Tropical Africa between 1950 and 1973.     

Book Reviews

Rashid Amjad (ed.), The Development of Labour Intensive Industry in ASEAN Countries, Geneva: Asian Employment Programme, International Labour Office, 1981, pp. v + 337. US$10.00.

G. J. Viksnins, Financial Deepening in ASEAN Countries, Pacific Forum. University of Hawaii Press, 1980, pp. ix + 76.

C. Sosya, L-S. Chia, W. L. Collier (eds). Man, Land and Sea, Bangkok: Agricultural Development Council, 1982, pp. ix + 320.

Joachim K. Metzner, Agriculture and Population Pressure in Sikka, Isle of Flores, (A contribution to the study of the stability of agricultural systems in the wet and dry tropics). Development Studies Centre Monograph No. 28. Canberra: Australian National University Press, 1982, pp. xxxii + 355. $A15.00.

Dwight Y. King, Interest Groups and Political Linkages in Indonesia 1800–1965. DeKalb: Northern Illinois University, Center for Southeast Asian Studies Special Report No. 20, pp. vii + 192, index.

Improving Access to Indonesian Collections in the Netherlands, Leiden: Intercontinenta No. 2, 1981, pp. 78. Dlf. l4.75.