Labor Surplus in Korea: A Reassessment

The paper estimates the Korean turning point, as defined in the labor-surplus model of Lewis (1954) and Fei and Ranis (1964), using a wide variety of data. The best estimate is somewhere in the period 1964-1968. In addition, unlike previous estimation work several data series are shown to support the entire model in addition to dating the turning point. Caution is urge in the use of econometric estimations of production-function parameters as a way to time the turning point. [O5]     

A Quantitative Analysis of the Effects of Capital Controls: Spain, 1986–1990 *

This Paper offers a quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of capital controls in Spain during the period 1986-1990. The analysis is based on a portfolio-balance model Previously estimated for the Spanish economy, where the complete elimination of capital controls is simulated. Our results suggest that capital controls would have avoided a net capital outflow amounting to nearly a 4 per cent increase in the Spanish net foreign asset position, as a quarterly average, during the first five years of Spanish membership into the EU. [C32, F21, F36]     

A Trade Model of Intermediate Products With Transportation Cost

This paper presents a trade model of intermediate products where a country has the same production technology as the outside world, and the source of trade is the unbalance in the factor endowment. The decision as to how much to process the raw material before exporting depends on the capital requirements for the processing, and the change in transportation cost due to the processing. The lower the requirements of capital coupled with a more rapid fall in the transportation cost in the earlier stage of production, the more probable that the country will export the processed intermediate good instead of the raw material.     

Infant Industry Protection Revisited

In 1791, Alexander Hamilton suggested that assuring protection to domestic entrants Could pre-empt entry-degterrence by foreign firms. This paper reformulates his Argument in game-theoretic terms with asymmetric cost information, imposing the Requirement that both the foreign firm's threat and the home governments's promise of Protection should be credible. It derives a simple optimal tariff formula that depends Only on the expectation of foreign costs. It then shows that this tariff can lead to Welfare-decreasing entry, but only if thee foreign is relatively inefficient. However, If the formula is applied with dynamic consistency, and is rationally anticipated by both foreign and domestic firms, it prevents foreign entry-deterrence and improves deomestic welfare. [F13, 019]     

Endogenous Choice of Trade Instrument Under Uncertainty *

This Paper endogenizes the choice between import tariffs and quotas of two policy active countries in a duopsonistic world market. Without uncertainty, import quotas are welfare superior to import tariffs in equilibrium. If two importers can precommit to a type of instrument before deciding the level of the instrument to use in a future period, an import quota equilibrium emerges. We introduce asymmetric risk in the import demand schedule of the two importers. There exists a range of parameters in which a mixed equilibrium emerges, i.e. one country uses a tariff while the other restricts trade with an import quota. The likelihood that both importers choose a different trade instrument in equilibrium is increasing with the correlation coefficient of the two random shocks. [F13]     

Causality Between Exports,Imports and Income In Trinidad and Tobago

This study examines the relationship between exports, imports and income in the economy of Trinidad and Tobago, using the methodology of Granger causality and error correction modeling. Our results show that there is unidirectional Granger causation from exports to income (GDP), and bidirectional causation between exports and imports and imports and income. The Economy of Trinidad and Tobago is a petroleum exporting economy where oil-export booms raise income levels, but this is usually followed by a slump. The bivariate models should be interpreted with caution because of the possibility of omitted variable bias. [F14, C22]     

Assessing economic activities – an example from central business districts

The Central Business District (CBD) is a dynamic part of the city that changes drastically over time, and responds to forces and demands for activities from within and from other countries. However, it is extremely difficult to quantify the various propositions put forward for measuring economic activities in the CBD due to the paucity of statistical data. Planning intervention thus becomes extremely difficult as other forces beyond the control or knowledge of the planner play crucial roles in determining what activities will locate in the CBD and where they will locate. This study, attempts to explore a view of how to measure and assess central business district economic activities for planning purposes. It follows a critical discussion of the nature of the CBD by pointing to empirical studies, including examples from the New York metropolitan region and the city of London. Moreover, it discusses indicators could be used to measure and assess economic activities in the CBD by highlighting planning purposes covering the entire issue.     

Von neumann facets and the dynamic stability of perfect foresight equilibrium paths in neo-classical trade models

I am grateful to two anonymous referees for useful comments on an earlier version of this paper.     

Canadian wage controls in an eclectic model of wage determination

Using a model of wage determination that allows for wage inertia, price expectational and price catch-up influences and quarterly data on annual wage change in new major Canadian settlements for 1967–1987, this paper shows that the Anti-Inflation Board (AIB) wage control programme has a much larger wage restraining influence than is estimated in previous studies. In contrast, the Six and Five wage control programme exerts only a modest restraining influence. Both results are of special interest because the wage determination model used here allows for not only the direct effect of wage controls, but also the indirect wage restraining effect of controls operating through lagged wage changes. We would like to thank two anonymous referees and the editor of this Journal for helpful comments on the work reported in this paper. We also want to acknowledge with thanks the very able research assistance provided by James Chu, Ann Holmes, and Graham Voss and the financial assistance provided by Career Access and Challenge grants from Employment and Immigration Canada and University of Victoria Faculty Research Grants.