Foreign Management,International Capital,and Income Redistribution

This paper examines the impact of foreign management as a separate input in a competitive economy open to both international trade and international movement of productive capital. Three inputs (capital, labor, management) are used to produce two final goods in a model characterized by competition, homogeneous products, and full employment. This model provides a simple starting point for the study of multinational firm activity, building on the fundamental competitive factor proportions model of production and trade. A clear distinction arises between international movements of capital and management, and international movements of the two inputs are linked. [F 11, F 23]     

A Delphi technology forecasting approach using a semi-Markov concept

This paper suggests a technology forecasting approach based on a semi-Markov model, which appropriately describes the probabilistic nature of a sequential technology development process. This approach focuses primarily on the utilization of the information that has been skipped in conventional Delphi survey data. That is, through a simple statistic, the interrelationships among sequential technology developments can be extracted in a formal structure of a semi-Markov model from the original Delphi panel's estimates. A simulation technique is developed to forecast the development process by utilizing the information on such interrelationships. This technique provides a flexible and useful tool for R&D planners or project managers, especially in postanalysis of Delphi forecasting. To make good use of the approach, a computer-based interactive Delphi data analysis system (IDEAS) is implemented in IBM PC.