Private business sales environments in the United Kingdom

When an owner-manager of a business firm decides to sell the company, it is not a trivial decision. Whether it is a sale forced by circumstances outside company control, or a positive, strategic choice, it is certainly significant. Moreover, the method of “exit,” the advice taken, and the deal that is eventually struck will clearly affect the nature of the owner's eventual lifestyle. In such circumstances, there are four choices open to the owner: (1) Sale to a third party; (2) Sale to the management and/or employees; (3) Public quotation on the Stock Exchange; (4) Liquidation.This research first analyzes the magnitude of activity in the United Kingdom in each of the above categories during the five-year period 1983–1987. The results show very clearly that there is a strategic loosening taking place in the corporate marketplace—more firms are being sold, and more owner-managers are choosing to exit from ownership of their firms. Moreover, the most frequently used exit route by far is that of the private advertized sale.The second part of this paper analyzes in detail the data for the private advertized sale. By means of principal-component analysis and cluster analysis seven, ecological incubator environments were constructed at a county level. Significant differences were observed between the environments in respect to private advertized sales, private advertized sales rates, and industrial structure. These results show clearly that the nature of the supply of owner-managers wishing to realize their ownership is geographically biased and is, in part, a reflection of the existing industrial and commercial base.     

Sequential simultaneous estimation of the mean and variance: The rate of convergence

We reconsider the problem of simultaneous estimation of the mean and variance of a normal distribution along the lines of Mukhopadhyay (1981), and derive the rate of convergence of the appropriately normalized stopping time to normality. The Berry-Esseen type results for randomly stoppedU-statistics have been utilized repeatedly in this context.     

网络外交的兴起:机制与趋势

以互联网为核心的信息传播技术的发展推动了现代外交的革命性变革。虚拟外交和网络外交越来越成为一种充满生机和活力的外交样式。网络外交由于具有虚拟性、开放性、互动性、迅捷性等特点,决定了网络外交成为新外交的重要载体和实现形式。根据政府角色差异和信息网络的社会属性区分,网络外交具有虚拟外交、在线网络外交和社交网络外交三种实现形式。其中,虚拟外交是最初级的网络外交,是现代外交的网络版,它在本质上仍然属于现代外交。在线网络外交已经成为真正意义上的网络外交,委托以非政府组织身份和面貌出现的独立网站和网络公司从事的外交。社会网络外交是迄今为止最发达和最成熟的网络外交。尽管网络外交目前仍然处于发展和完善之中,但它以其强大的外交动员力和外交效率,推动着现代外交在价值原则、组织体制和运行机制等方面发生了总体性变革。因此,在网络时代背景下,网络外交越来越成为未来最具冲击力的新兴外交形式。中国在外交运行过程中应该大力推进网络化和虚拟化,这是中国外交现代化的一个重要内容。     

一代巨擘褒与贬

作为结构现实主义国际关系理论的创始人和领军人物,肯尼思·沃尔兹的学术思想影响既深且远,却不像表面上那么容易理解。他对传统国际关系理论进行了科学改造,单枪匹马地改变了国际关系学科的面貌,却又坚决反对科学实证主义。他的理论因其高度简约、针对性强以及拒绝具体预测而备受诟病,沃尔兹却不为所动,绝不放松对科学理论的严苛要求。在明智的利益和谨慎的权力等原则指引下,一位貌似崇尚实力的现实主义者却成了现实国际政治中的温和派。     

国际议程设置:一种初步分析框架

作者系统梳理了新闻传播学、政治学及国际政治学的相关议程设置理论,在此基础上提出国际议程设置的理论框架,指出国际议程设置是相关行为体通过议题选择与界定、冲突拓展与利益动员以及议程切入点的选择,最终将其关注的议题列入国际议程的过程。在这一过程中,不仅传统的国家行为体是重要的参与者,而且非国家行为体——例如媒体、专家群体、倡议团体乃至个人——都是重要的参与者。如果议题发起者能够成功吸引足够多的参与者,建立起立体式的议题联盟网络,那么其成功设置国际议程的可能性将大大增强。国际议程设置是国际权力博弈的第二张面孔,它决定了什么议题可以进入国际议程,什么议题被排除在国际议程之外。     

另一个世界是可能的——后危机时代的中国与世界发展

近几十年来,世界面临发展困境。发展中国家的发展困境削弱了世界经济的社会基础,让整个世界都面临发展困境,也使得危机的根源难以消除。世界性的发展困境主要源于美国对世界发展模式的塑造。美国通过国际组织以及理念输出等方式,用新自由主义的发展模式改造了发展中国家,阻碍了发展中国家的国家构建之进程。国家构建的缺失使得发展中国家既无力应对国际政治经济的挑战,也无力整合国内政治经济秩序。在后危机时代,美国相对衰落,而中国的迅速发展使得中国成为发展中国家的效仿对象;中国国家实力的增强也制约了美国新自由主义发展模式的推广;中国的成功还让世界有了不同的发展理念。因此,后危机时代的中国为世界提供了另外一种选择,为陷入困境的发展中国家与世界经济提供了新机会。     

The Savings Ratio and Financial Repression in Trinidad and Tobago *

This paper investigates the hypothesis financial repression in the context of the Determinates of the private savings ratio in Trinidad and Tobago, using the Multivariate, cointegration time-series methodology. Four alternative proxies are Used to represent financial repression, including the real interest rate, the real interest Rate differential between the world and domestic economy and two alternative Measures of exchange rate misalignment, We find that there is strong evidence to Support the hypothesis of financial repression in Trinidad and Tobago over the sample Period and that financial liberalization may significantly enhance the growth of real Per capita income. [E2, F4, O1]     

A Re-Examination of the Linder Hypothesis: A Random-Effects Tobit Approach

This paper examines one of the main theories of international trade, the Linder hypothesis, using data from the OECD countries. The paper makes two primary contributions. First, significant empirical evidence is found in support of Linder's hypothesis regarding demand similarity for 18 of the 19 OECD countries under investigation here. Second, the use of a censored dependent variable in this analysis corrects a major methodological shortcoming in the existing literature by including data on all potential trading partners, even when the given OECD country has a zero or negative desire to export to that potential trading partner. [F10]