Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) in Construction Schedule Risk Assessment

Construction project scheduling is one of the most critical factors for project success measurement.Not only for the project planning but for construction process management,the scheduling is the basic tool for communication between the owner and the project manager.By developing the schedule before the project starts,the owner knows in advance that the expected timeline of the project.By preparing construction process scheduling,the owner and general contractor can better manage the subcontractors,sub-trades progress,materials storage and deliveries,labors schedule and equipment set up which will eventually save time,money and hassle.Basically,Critical Path Method(CPM) is commonly used in the construction industry.CPM is a deterministic method that assumes that through the network,there is at least one path that determines the project duration and that the path is the critical path.CPM does not consider the uncertainty in the activities;rather it assumes that each activity can be finished in the given situation.Program Evaluation and Review Technique(PERT) is a stochastic technique which is based on the assumption that the duration of a single activity can be described by a probability density function.PERT takes into account the uncertainty during the construction process and has been created out of the need to plan,schedule and control complex projects with many uncertainties.The PERT approach is stated in some books and papers,but there is no deep investigation on the application in the schedule risk assessment.This paper investigates the PERT work process and takes a valuable try on the construction schedule risk assessment by using case studies.The utilization in the estimate the construction liquidated damage with the uncertainties is performed,which also can be used in the insurance company to calculate the insurance premium.     

货币危机的政治经济学解释:文献评述

作者从文献的角度对货币危机的政治经济学解释做了一次比较全面的梳理,从中可以看出国际金融政治经济学的研究特点和思维方式。在理论构建上,政治经济学的学者们完全沿用了经济学模型中的不完全信息和动态博弈论,引入了预期的形成以及市场交易者和政府之间的战略互动,从而成功地把各种政治和经济变量纳入到一个模型之内。他们的贡献是,把政治变量引入到市场交易者和政府的预期形成中,强调了政治变量以及作为一种信息的政治变量在市场交易者和政府预期中的作用或者地位,并强调了政治变量在市场交易者和政府之间战略互动或动态博弈过程中的作用,从而更好地解释了货币危机的原因,提高了预测货币危机的准确性。在实证研究上,政治经济学通过预期效用函数、战略概率模型等方式,较为成功地实现了对政治因素这个分类变量的模型化,较好地实现了对政治因素的量化分析。     

A Content Analysis of Compatible Fit among Message Elements in Philanthropy Ads

This research examined philanthropy ad messages in terms of four key elements: philanthropy goal, beneficiary, expected fundraising impact, and how the suggested donation is appraised. A content analysis was carried out to systematically study ad messages from nonprofit organizations on the Philanthropy 400 list. Specifically, the frequency of appearance of each type of message elements was analyzed in terms of four theoretical concepts: regulatory focus (promotion vs. prevention goal), egoism/altruism (self vs. others as beneficiary), temporal orientation (present vs. future fundraising impact), and efficacy appraisal (self- vs. response-efficacy in how a donation is appraised). Since past research further suggests that persuasion may be enhanced when message elements are well matched in terms of “compatible fits,” this study further analyzed how the four message elements were combined in usage. The findings of this research show that while most nonprofit organizations actively utilized all four types of elements in their messages, the current practice did not follow the guidelines as would be suggested by compatible fits literature. In this respect, more research is needed to understand the discrepancy and provide better guidelines for future communication strategies in the nonprofit sector.     

Religion's influence on the financial well-being of consumers: A conceptual framework and research agenda

Religion is an indelible force in society, yet research examining its influence on consumption, particularly in the context of financial well-being is lacking. Thus, this paper presents a conceptual framework of factors influencing, and outcomes associated with, the effects of religion on financial well-being. Specifically, this paper introduces a conceptual framework aimed at understanding how religion influences financial decisions and well-being, both from a consumer and a business perspective. Focus groups were conducted with consumers and financial practitioners to support the development of the conceptual framework. Most novel to this framework is the identification of potential process mechanisms explaining this relationship, including trust, affect, risk propensity, and perceived personal control. The framework concludes with potential interventions targeted at consumers and businesses to improve financial well-being. This propositions-based conceptual framework serves as a research agenda to guide and aid scholars, consumer advocacy groups, policymakers, and marketers in promoting greater financial well-being.     

Optimal money supply rules under asymmetric objective criteria

This paper examines the derivation and properties of optimal money supply rules when such rules are chosen to minimize a loss function with asymmetric properties. Optimal money supply rules derived under symmetric and asymmetric objective criteria are compared under alternative expectations scenarios. When shocks have no impact on variables in the loss function, the optimal rule under a symmetric objective criterion is then also optimal under an asymmetric objective criterion. When shocks have some impact on variables in the loss function, the optimal policy rule will be different under the alternative criteria.Earlier versions of this paper were presented to the Seventh Analytic Economics Workshop, Australian National University, to the Australasian Meetings of the Econometrics Society, University of New England, and to seminars at the University of Waikato, the University of Canterbury at Christchurch, and the University of Guelph. The author is grateful to participants in those sessions for helpful comments. Particular thanks go to Louis Christofides, John Fender, Rod Maddock, Adrian Pagan, John Pitchford, and Larry Taylor for helpful discussions. The author is also grateful to the editor and two anonymous referees of this Journal for their constructive comments and criticisms. Of course, any remaining errors are the sole responsibility of the author.     

A Keynesian general equilibrium model with competitive firms and rational expectations

A Keynesian general equilibrium model is developed from neoclassical principles. The model is based on competitive firm behavior, and optimizing agents that form expectations rationally. Firms determine their product price to maximize expected profits. Non-neutrality results follow from micro foundations that view firms as committing to a price and output level before actual demand is observed. It follows that optimal output levels are in part determined by demand conditions. In the general equilibrium framework, increases in government spending lead to welfare-improving increases in aggregate output.I thank Tom Cosimano, Strat Douglas, Douglas Gale, Norm Miller, Nick Rowe, Geoffrey Woglom, and two anonymous referees for valuable comments. The responsibility for potential errors remains entirely my own.     

Boundedness of economic variables and Olech's theorem

On the basis of Olech's theorem we derive conditions on which any solution path starting from an arbitrary initial point in a two-dimensional bounded region ultimately converges to a unique equilibrium point without escaping from the region during a transition period. Then, using the result, we render one proposition more exact from the economic point of view.I would like to thank two anonymous referees for valuable comments and advices. Remaining errors are, of course, wholly due to myself.