Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) in Construction Schedule Risk Assessment

Construction project scheduling is one of the most critical factors for project success measurement.Not only for the project planning but for construction process management,the scheduling is the basic tool for communication between the owner and the project manager.By developing the schedule before the project starts,the owner knows in advance that the expected timeline of the project.By preparing construction process scheduling,the owner and general contractor can better manage the subcontractors,sub-trades progress,materials storage and deliveries,labors schedule and equipment set up which will eventually save time,money and hassle.Basically,Critical Path Method(CPM) is commonly used in the construction industry.CPM is a deterministic method that assumes that through the network,there is at least one path that determines the project duration and that the path is the critical path.CPM does not consider the uncertainty in the activities;rather it assumes that each activity can be finished in the given situation.Program Evaluation and Review Technique(PERT) is a stochastic technique which is based on the assumption that the duration of a single activity can be described by a probability density function.PERT takes into account the uncertainty during the construction process and has been created out of the need to plan,schedule and control complex projects with many uncertainties.The PERT approach is stated in some books and papers,but there is no deep investigation on the application in the schedule risk assessment.This paper investigates the PERT work process and takes a valuable try on the construction schedule risk assessment by using case studies.The utilization in the estimate the construction liquidated damage with the uncertainties is performed,which also can be used in the insurance company to calculate the insurance premium.     

货币危机的政治经济学解释:文献评述

作者从文献的角度对货币危机的政治经济学解释做了一次比较全面的梳理,从中可以看出国际金融政治经济学的研究特点和思维方式。在理论构建上,政治经济学的学者们完全沿用了经济学模型中的不完全信息和动态博弈论,引入了预期的形成以及市场交易者和政府之间的战略互动,从而成功地把各种政治和经济变量纳入到一个模型之内。他们的贡献是,把政治变量引入到市场交易者和政府的预期形成中,强调了政治变量以及作为一种信息的政治变量在市场交易者和政府预期中的作用或者地位,并强调了政治变量在市场交易者和政府之间战略互动或动态博弈过程中的作用,从而更好地解释了货币危机的原因,提高了预测货币危机的准确性。在实证研究上,政治经济学通过预期效用函数、战略概率模型等方式,较为成功地实现了对政治因素这个分类变量的模型化,较好地实现了对政治因素的量化分析。     

Product Patent Reform and its Impact on Korea's Pharmaceutical Industry

Our analysis focuses on the effect of U.S. government pressure on Korea to adopt product patents for chemical and pharmaceutical products. American pressure began in November 1985 and ended with the Korean Legislature's passage of a new patent law in December 1986. We conduct an event study of the effect of the new patent law on the value of Korean pharmaceutical firms listed on the Korea Stock Exchange. Regression analysis shows that the new law induced excess returns of-74 percent over the 14-month analysis period. The results suggest that adoption of stronger patent laws reduced Korea's wealth. [G14, O34]     

Statistical inference using the T index to quantify the level of comparability between accounts

The extent to which the accounts of companies are comparable is considered important to users and regulators. However, prior research has been restricted by a lack of appropriate statistical methods for testing comparability indices. This has made it difficult to assess the true level of comparability from sample data and to test research hypotheses such as whether the level of comparability (a) differs by policy, (b) differs by country, and (c) changes over time. This paper fills this gap by exploring the statistical properties of the T index. The T index generalises the H, C, I and various modifications of these indices and represents a unified framework for the measurement of the extent to which the accounts of companies are comparable. Formulae for the bias and standard error for any index under this framework are provided and proved. The bias is shown to equal zero or be negligible in most practical situations. Using historical data, the standard error is used to illustrate the accuracy with which comparability is estimated and to perform formal statistical inference using confidence intervals and p‐values. Furthermore, the sampling distribution of the T index is assessed for normality. Implications for research design and sample size determination are also discussed.     

Ownership and production efficiency: Evidence from Taiwanese banks

In the early 1990s, Taiwan began her deregulation trend in order to enhance competition and economic efficiency across all industries. We derive a theoretical framework to predict possible rankings in technical efficiencies of public, mixed, and private banks. A panel data set with 43 Taiwanese banks during 1997–1999 is used for empirical analysis. We then apply a translog distance function to estimate technical efficiencies. The relationship between technical efficiency and government shareholding is also examined. Empirical results show that a public bank in Taiwan can improve its technical efficiency by mixed ownership at a diminishing rate. Moreover, banks in Taiwan on average performed worse after the 1997 Asian financial crisis.     

Shutting up shop: understanding the international exit process in retailing

Internationalisation is a much-studied phenomenon. Exit from international markets has been less analysed. Where it has been studied, most work has been on motives and causes, with relatively little on processes. This article explores the process of international exit in a retail context. It examines the run-up to, announcement of and fall-out from the decision by Marks and Spencer (one of Britain's leading retailers) to close its French stores. The article concludes that understanding the process of market exit is at least as important both for theoretical and practical reasons as understanding the decision to exit or divest. Further research needs to be undertaken on market exit and the processes involved, in order to contribute further to the theory and practice of internationalisation.     

The impact of a gasoline crisis on retail sales

The gasoline crises of the 1970s demonstrated the need for including gasoline prices and gasoline shortages in models explaining retail sales. In this article, a model is constructed that incorporates the aforementioned variables, other variables, and a lagged sales figure as independent variable. The results indicate a high degree of explanatory power in predicting retail sales for a specialty store chain with a preponderance of their stores in large regional malls that sell a product which lends itself to unplanned purchase behaviour.