Money and Inflation: International Evidence Based on Cointegration Theory

This study investigates the relationship between money and inflation using cointegration tests. For a broad sample of countries, the paper finds that most time series data underlying a typical monetarist model are nonstationary, indicating that it is necessary to appropriately transform the data in order to render the confidence tests reliable. Our principal finding is that money and inflation are related only in countries with high inflation [E 31]     

The welfare economics of dominant-firm acquisitions

Conclusion The main results of this paper provide some analytic underpinning for a strict horizontal merger policy relating to dominant firms. However, even under standard assumptions, examples have been demonstrated where dominant/fringe firm mergers increase welfare. Most of these examples imply shutting down acquired facilities, a practice regarded as unfavorable evidence by the court in theStandard Oil case; consequently, they do not by themselves seem to offer much hope for raising economies as an antitrust defense. Finally, it should be noted that this paper has considered only single-product economies; economies of scope arising in multi-product (and multi-market) contexts could be large enough to justify dominant/fringe firm mergers⁹.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Economic Policy Office seminar, Antitrust Division, U. S. Department of Justice. The author is grateful to Marius Schwartz, other seminar participants and an anonymous referee of this journal for helpful comments. M. Daniel Westbrook and Brian Flynn kindly arranged for the calculations reported in Appendix C.     

Asymmetric Effects of Money on Inflation: Evidence from Korean Data

New Keynesian macroeconomic models predict that monetary shocks have asymmetric effects on inflation, i.e., inflation responds more to positive monetary shocks than to negative shocks (Asymmetry Hypothesis A), and that the asymmetry is positively associated with movements in average inflation (Asymmetry Hypothesis B). Korean data are shown to provide little support for Asymmetry Hypothesis A and strong support for Asymmetry Hypothesis B. [O53, E12]     

A comparison of statistical tests for the adequacy of a neural network regression model

An integral part of econometric practice is to test the adequacy of model specifications. If a model is adequately specified, it should not leave interesting features of the data-generating process in the errors. Despite the common tradition, the importance of diagnostic checking as a safeguard against mis-specification has only recently been recognized by neural network (NN) practitioners, possibly because this type of semi-parametric methodology was not originally designed for economic and financial applications. The purpose of this paper is to compare a number of analytical statistical testing procedures suitable to diagnostic checking on a neural network regression model. We present the standard Lagrange multiplier (LM) testing framework designed under the assumption of identically distributed disturbances and also examine two modifications that are robust to heteroskedasticity in errors. One modification also gives the researcher an opportunity to incorporate information concerning the volatility structure of the data-generating process in the testing procedure. By means of a Monte Carlo simulation, we investigate the performance of these tests under GARCH-type heteroskedasticity in errors and various distributional assumptions. The results show that although the primary concern of the researcher may be to design a regression model that accurately captures relations in the mean of the conditional distribution, developing a good approximation of the underlying volatility structure generally increases the efficiency of tests in detecting non-adequacy of a NN model.     

跨境资本自由流动的政治经济学分析

20世纪70年代以来,理论界和国际社会基本秉承资本自由流动能够改善资源全球配置的理念,宣称资本流出国与流入国都将从中受益。然而2010年开始,全球范围内掀起一轮资本管制的浪潮,新兴市场国家和部分发达国家主张采取征收资本利得税或者金融交易税的方式,抑制跨境资本的大范围流动,维持本国经济政策的独立性和有效性。作者结合新自由主义和国家干预主义的理论思想,比较分析跨境资本自由流动的利弊,提出新兴市场国家在特定条件下针对短期资本流动应该加以管制。同时,发达市场政府对资本自由流动态度的变化是国内利益集团矛盾冲突与调和的结果,不同利益集团党派偏好和选举周期最终影响资本流动的政策选择,欧美国家本国经济低迷迫使其实行国内保护的资本流动政策来缓解矛盾。全球化下的国际金融市场需要一种全新的国际管理机制解决市场失灵问题,应对资本流动产生的跨国溢出效应需要有效的国际协调,构建反映新的实力分配的全球治理框架,从而寻找到集体利益和本国利益的平衡点。     

论当代国际贸易理论的国际政治经济学意义

从1979年新贸易理论诞生以来,国际贸易理论历经了新经济地理、贸易与新增长理论、内生贸易政策理论(也称为贸易政策的政治经济学)、新新贸易理论等数次理论创新过程,对经济全球化的性质和发展趋势产生了许多新的认识。这些理论对国际政治经济学的研究也提供了新的理论视角。在讨论了当代国际贸易理论历次创新的国际政治经济学意义之后,作者提出应该从多重角度辩证地理解这些理论创新。国际政治经济学研究的开放经济政治分析范式把对个体和利益集团的利益分析奠定在经济学理论分析(特别是国际贸易理论分析)的基础上,并强调国内和国际政治经济多层次的互动研究,这有利于对国际政治经济学研究提供明确的演绎逻辑。与此同时,问题导向的国际政治经济学仍应保持其在方法论上的灵活性和开放性。     

Broadband business by utilities infrastructure exploitation: A multistage competition model

A promising broadband business opportunity is the exploitation of the physical resources owned by municipalities and utility-based firms. In this study, the new broadband business opportunities owned by these authorities are analyzed through the development of a decision analysis model. The proposed model analyzes the broadband business into stages, integrates real options and game theory and provides business equilibrium in terms of the time of entry in the market, quantity offer and price definition. Finally, a real world case study is discussed showing how the model can be applied.     

地区政治与国际关系研究

传统的国际关系研究增进了人们对国际关系一般性和整体性的领悟能力,但在国际关系的复杂多样性方面却缺乏深入的分析。作为解决这个问题的一种努力,我们主张关注地区政治,到地区体系和地区内的互动关系之中去考察和研究国际关系中的重要问题。作者将地区政治界定为一个有着独特性的国际关系研究领域,在强调其反映国际关系深刻性的基础上,从体系结构、进程和秩序三个方面分析了它的基本特征,并讨论了进行地区政治研究需要思考的某些理论问题。地区政治研究将有助于我们较为确切地回答在什么样的条件下国际合作或者国际冲突最为可能的问题,因此需要赋予国际关系研究以更鲜明的地区空间色彩。