Decentralized trade, random utility and the evolution of social welfare

We study decentralized trade processes in general exchange economies and house allocation problems with and without money. The processes are affected by persistent random shocks stemming from agents’ maximization of random utility. By imposing structure on the utility noise term—logit distribution—one is able to calculate exactly the stationary distribution of the perturbed Markov process for any level of noise. We show that the stationary distribution places the largest probability on the maximizers of weighted sums of the agents’ (intrinsic) utilities, and this probability tends to 1 as noise vanishes.     

Product differentiation and dynamic price behavior in fish markets

The objective of this paper is to estimate the dynamics of aquaculture and fish prices as a response to price shocks. The vector autoregression approach will be used to explain the dynamics of the sea bream market in both cultured and wild fishing. The main result is that changes in public regulation or in production conditions could stimulate production responses which may take time to settle. Usually, the change is a matter of adjusting between equilibria over a period of time, with the pattern and speed of the adjustment, depending on the nature and degree of disequilibrium in the fishing system. Comments from reviewers have been incorporated into the paper and are gratefully acknowledged. Financial support was provided by Direcció General de Recerca, Departament d'Universitats, Recerca i Societat de la Informació project N^o SGR2001-160.     

Tensions in local government employment relationships

Abstract

A wide variety of initiatives characterized under the umbrella term of new public management have been introduced over the past two decades to improve efficiency and cost-effectiveness in the public sector. The implications of these initiatives for public sector employment relationships have been the subject of on-going debate. This article contributes to this debate through examining how employees within local authorities are managed in a time of personal crisis with a particular focus on long-term sickness absence in the context of increased management drives for efficiency under the NPM agenda. The findings reveal that for managers in two local authorities that form the focus of this study there is a tension in struggling to achieve a workable balance between the needs of employees and wider operational requirements, resulting in role ambiguity for line managers and detrimental effects for vulnerable public service workers.     

The new public management and the UK Police Service

This article explores the impact of the introduction of the New Public Management (NPM) within the UK Police Service since the mid-1990s. A specific focus upon individual performance management (one of the central features of NPM) is examined from the perspective of the police sergeant who has primary responsibility for managing performance and ultimately the delivery of policing services within one of the UK's ‘essential’ public services. After a discussion of the literature on individual performance management within the context of the NPM, the article identifies four major research questions relating to: the job role demands of performance management; access to valid and reliable performance management information; the capacity to provide follow-up development and support; and the wider integration of performance management with organization strategy and service objectives. After reporting on interview data collected from role sets in which the sergeant is a focal member, the article concludes with a discussion of the constraints upon effective performance management within the NPM.     

对美国信息企业成功经营经验的探索

本文通过剖析美国若干信息企业的发展历程来探讨它们在激烈竞争的环境中获得巨大成就的经验。它们善于捕捉历史机遇，并且制定充分利用机遇的独特经营战略。历史机遇为企业提供新的市场空间，而高超的经营战略则有利于发挥自己的优势，提高竞争力     

Speculative hyperinflations and currency substitution

We propose a rational expectations framework for understanding speculative hyperinflations that end in response to ‘orthodox’ stabilization programs. Motivated by a strong degree of hysteresis in the stock of real balances after the end of hyperinflations, we provide a cash-and-credit model in which the money demand exhibits persistence because individuals can establish long-lasting credit relationships. We use the model to show that if hysteresis in real balances is possible then a fiscal–monetary reform that successfully stops a speculative hyperinflation may fail to prevent it. We argue that speculative hyperinflationary equilibria are consistent with some key stylized facts observed in extreme hyperinflations.     

Analytical derivation and behavioral interpretation of a model combining trip generation and distribution

The disjointedness of the planning sequence of trip generation and trip distribution is the main subject of this paper. We approach this disjointedness problem by analyzing the central properties of the independently discovered balancing methods of trip-distribution models in relation to two critical issues. First, in the current planning sequence, it is usual to start by forecasting how many trips will begin (production) and end (attraction) in each zone. This forecasting is done by estimating the production of trips independently from the attraction of trips and vice versa, and then forcing some mechanical balance of total trips being generated in the urban system. Second, in the same planning sequence, the output of this trip-generation process is the input to the next one (trip-distribution process): forecasting the matrix that describes the number of trips between each pair of zones. This forecasting is done in general by updating an equivalent obsolete matrix that was obtained from an origin-and-destination survey. The updating is generally accomplished by adjusting the outdated matrix with the so-called balancing factors. It is the purpose of this paper to support the balancing-factors approach in forecasting trip-distribution matrices with a methodological interpretation and to explain behaviorally the balancing factors; and in the process, to show the spatial interaction between trip production and attraction and the emerging need for simultaneous specification and estimation of the whole trip-generation process.