Using survey data to test market efficiency in the foreign exchange markets

The paper uses cointegration methods to test the market efficiency hypothesis (MEH) in the foreign exchange markets. Four exchange rates are considered-all relative to the US dollar: BP, DM, SF and JY. Survey data on expectations are used to see whether the violation of the MEH is due to expectational errors or risk premia. The results differ for the one-week ahead and the one-month ahead forecasts. With the weekly data we conclude that it is risk premia, and with the monthly data it is both expectational errors and risk premia that account for the violation of the MEH. Given the volatility of the exchange markets, it appears that forecasts over an extended period fail tests of rationality, but one-week ahead forecasts do not fail such tests.     

An Analysis of State-Owned Banks’Behavior in NPL Disposition

I. NPL Asset Settlement in China’s State-Owned Banks Non-performing loans(NPLs)represent the most serious problem hindering China’sbankingsystem, especially the fourstate-owned banks (SOBs).According to statisticsfrom China’sBanking Regulatory Commission (CBRC), the banking system has accumulated NPLs tothevalueof3,158 billion RMB,whilethefourSOBsaccountedfor51 percentofthattotalbytheend of 2003 (seeTable 1). While the banking sector disposeslessthan 300 billion NPLevery year…     

从国际公共产品到区域性公共产品——区域合作理论的新增长点

区域性公共产品概念是对国际公共产品概念的继承和发展。深化对区域性公共产品的理论建构是当前国际关系学研究的新热点之一。经济学中的公共产品理论与地区主义的五阶段说和功能主义的溢出说相融合,为传统的区域合作理论提供了新的理论分析框架。公共产品消费中非排他性和非竞争性的特征为选取区域合作的内容设定了较为客观的标准。公共产品的成本-收益分析则从经济学的角度较为科学地说明了驱动有关国家开展区域合作的内在动力。此外,公共产品理论中有关外部性的论述还可解决域外大国参与区域合作的难题。     

安全联盟与经济合作研究——基于四种联盟类型的分析

联盟建立的初衷是为了满足国家在安全上的需要。但在无政府状态的国际社会中,经济交往产生的安全外部性促进了结盟国家间贸易往来的增加,确保了联盟国家间经济交往的发展;在联盟建立和发展过程中,联盟框架内存在的议题联系机制为联盟国家之间进行安全合作的同时实现经济合作提供了相应的交往渠道和方式。同时,一国通过经济上的补偿性支付的方式向其盟国提供经济补偿,使其从经济上获益,从而确保了安全联盟的稳定。根据联盟成员间的相互依存度和利益相容性程度,联盟会表现为实力增强型联盟、协调型联盟、霸权型联盟和飘忽不定型联盟等四种类型,联盟经济在各种类型的联盟中都会发挥作用;但在不同类型的联盟中,由于上述两个变量的不同,经济合作与安全利益的关联程度会有不同的表现,补偿性支付也会发挥不同的作用。     

美国是东亚区域合作的推动者还是阻碍者?

冷战结束至今,东亚区域合作得到了很大发展。地区多边组织、论坛、会议、自由贸易区等区域合作形式在本地区的政治、安全和经济等诸多领域中扮演着日益重要的角色,包括中国在内的东亚国家都已经在不同程度上介入区域多边合作进程之中。东亚区域合作的进程可能对未来美国与东亚的关系产生意义深远的影响。美国主要根据其自身利益的判断来应对东亚区域合作,对于把美国排除在外的区域合作形式可能采取不欢迎的态度,对于把美国包括在内的区域合作形式则可能采取积极推动的立场。     

Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) in Construction Schedule Risk Assessment

Construction project scheduling is one of the most critical factors for project success measurement.Not only for the project planning but for construction process management,the scheduling is the basic tool for communication between the owner and the project manager.By developing the schedule before the project starts,the owner knows in advance that the expected timeline of the project.By preparing construction process scheduling,the owner and general contractor can better manage the subcontractors,sub-trades progress,materials storage and deliveries,labors schedule and equipment set up which will eventually save time,money and hassle.Basically,Critical Path Method(CPM) is commonly used in the construction industry.CPM is a deterministic method that assumes that through the network,there is at least one path that determines the project duration and that the path is the critical path.CPM does not consider the uncertainty in the activities;rather it assumes that each activity can be finished in the given situation.Program Evaluation and Review Technique(PERT) is a stochastic technique which is based on the assumption that the duration of a single activity can be described by a probability density function.PERT takes into account the uncertainty during the construction process and has been created out of the need to plan,schedule and control complex projects with many uncertainties.The PERT approach is stated in some books and papers,but there is no deep investigation on the application in the schedule risk assessment.This paper investigates the PERT work process and takes a valuable try on the construction schedule risk assessment by using case studies.The utilization in the estimate the construction liquidated damage with the uncertainties is performed,which also can be used in the insurance company to calculate the insurance premium.     

Learning,experience and the dynamics of north–south Trade and technology transfer

This paper examines the dynamics of learning and experience that underlie technology transfer using a North-South trade model with a continuum of goods. Since North is historically more experienced than South, it initially produces the most advanced goods and pays higher wages. Whenever there is a market-driven transfer of technology and production over time, there will be some wage convergence as South gradually gains experience. Nevertheless, wage inequality must persist in the steady state. Product innovation typically increases steady-state wage inequality because new goods are produced in North, and North ultimately learns than South. [F12, O19]