FORECASTING FDI EQUITY INCOME FOR THE DANISH BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

Late and significant revisions are often observed in FDI equity income in many countries, hampering the quality of preliminary balance of payments statistics. We test a range of models on Danish data and find that forecasts for FDI equity income based on a combination of past profitability and consensus data for changes in expected private consumption growth outperform forecasts solely based on historical profitability. When the refined models are applied to the Danish balance of payments, the largest improvements are observed for outward and inward FDI separately. Revisions of net FDI equity income only decrease marginally because the significant revisions in gross terms resulting from the historical models have a tendency to (partly) cancel out each other on a net basis.     

MARKETS VS. MANAGEMENT: WHAT ‘DRIVES’ PROFITABILITY?

This study addresses the issue of the relative degree of variance in ROA accounted for by industry, corporate, and SBU effects while controlling for the business cycle and the interaction between the business cycle and industry. Two key articles, Schmalensee (1985) and Rumelt (1991), are discussed in detail. Research results on a recent data base (COMPUSTAT), using variance components analysis (VARCOMP) are presented that not only confirm most of the Rumelt (1991) findings, but also suggest the existence of a corporate effect, heretofore undetected.     

Quality,Choice, and the Economics of Concealment: The Marketing of Lemons

The quantity of hazardous or ineffective products on national and international markets is higher than can be explained by current theory. Research has shown that “lemons” can indeed occur and it has specified roles for (a) potential future purchases and (b) seller reputation. This paper explores incentives facing sellers of goods containing one or more negative characteristics. The economics of concealment provides the conditions under which some sellers use resources to interfere with quality signals. This allows, at the extreme, a class of product which is a “pure lemon” in that its very existence would not be justified if consumers were fully informed. The paper identifies important variables which have direct policy implications for regulation and for consumer welfare.     

The Impact of Comparative Food Price Information on Consumers and Grocery Retailers: Some Preliminary Findings of a Field Experiment

There is reason to believe that consumers face a difficult task in securing adequate and accurate information upon which to judge relative price levels of competing foodstores. The objective of the research reported here was to investigate the potential of retail food price reporting for correcting this information problem. Both consumer and grocery retailer responses to this comparative food price information were analyzed. A pretest-post-test design with four pairs of experimental-control cities (with replications at two levels of concentration) was employed to collect price data. A modified Solomon-four group design was used for surveys of food consumers in experimental and control cities. The results of analysis of variance models lend support to the hypothesis that price reporting can lower the relative level of food prices, both for items individually identified in a price report and items not identified in the report. The magnitude of this effect varied among the cities. It appears that consumers' role in this experiment was a passive one: consumer behavior and patronage patterns did not change in a manner that would consistently reinforce the competitive effects of the price reports.     

Orientations Toward Consumerism: A Test of a Two-Dimensional Theory

Some past studies concerning attitudes toward consumer public policy issues have attempted to distinguish characteristics of consumerism supporters from those of nonsupporters. Results to date have been largely inconsistent. This study incorporates a solution preference dimension into the supporter/nonsupporter analysis in order to help resolve past identification anomalies and to suggest a theoretical explanation for diverse orientations. More specifically, a two-dimensional theory of consumerism orientations is developed and tested as a special case of Rokeach's broader Two-Value Theory of Political Orientations. The survey data presented tend to general support the hypothesized theoretical structure.     

Funeral Price Disclosure in an Urban Market

During telephone interviews in which funeral directors were asked to provide the least expensive option for a fixed list of services, substantial price dispersion among providers was found. Prospective customers were quoted higher prices than were quoted to consumer researchers. The cost of cremation was one-fifth that of earth burial, and cemetery charges amounted to more than one-half of earth burial costs. A memorial society member was quoted lower prices than were available to private customers of the same firm, and lower prices in relation to other funeral providers. These surveys were supported in an examination of actual funeral bills for memorial society members.     

The Impact of Retirement on Household Leisure Expenditures

Household leisure expenditures for retired and near‐retired households were examined in order to better understand the dynamics associated with the move to retirement status. Data from the 1995 Consumer Expenditure Survey indicated that retirement, total expenditures, and education had positive impacts on leisure expenditures. For retired households, greater total expenditures and education increased expenditures, while age and the presence of earned income decreased expenditures. For near‐retired households, greater total expenditures, education, and the presence of asset income significantly increased leisure expenditures.     

When Do Analysts Adjust for Biases in Management Guidance? Effects of Guidance Track Record and Analysts’ Incentives

Prior research indicates that analysts do not fully adjust for the general downward bias in earnings guidance issued by management. We report the results of two experiments designed to investigate how guidance track record and analysts’ incentives jointly explain the extent to which analysts adjust for guidance bias. Our results suggest that analysts with accuracy incentives adjust for management’s track record of downwardly biased guidance when the bias is relatively small (one cent), but those with relationship incentives do not. Furthermore, the difference in adjustment is larger when the bias track record is inconsistent than when it is consistent. Also, when guidance bias is larger (two cents) relative to smaller (one cent), analysts with relationship incentives partially adjust, as they appear to strike a balance between accuracy and their desire to please management. These findings hold implications for investors, regulators, and the interpretation of prior research.