Inflation and Unit Labor Cost

We study two decompositions of inflation, π, motivated by the standard New Keynesian pricing equation of Gali, Gertler, and Sbordone. The first uses four components: lagged π, expected future π, real unit labor cost (ψ), and a residual. The second uses two components: fundamental inflation (discounted expected future ψ) and a residual. We find large low‐frequency differences between actual and fundamental inflation. From 1999 to 2011 fundamental inflation fell by more than 15 percentage points, while actual inflation changed little. We discuss this discrepancy in terms of the data (a large drop in labor's share of income) and through the lens of a canonical structural model.     

教育培训——高端人才的孵化器

我很高兴能代表蒙特雷国际学院参加这次会议。蒙特雷学院是北京WTO事务中心的合作伙伴，我非常感谢北京WTO事务中心在这期间做出的杰出工作。     

ALL ECONOMIC FREEDOM IS NOT CREATED EQUAL: EVIDENCE FROM A GRAVITY MODEL

This article analyzes the differential impacts of different types of economic freedom on bilateral trade flows between the United States and 122 countries over 10 years. A gravity model of trade is employed to investigate how various freedom indices assembled by the Fraser Institute impact the volume of trade, exports, and imports. The main findings of the article are that each of the freedom indices impact heterogeneously across the measure of trade flows, with the changes in Regulation having the biggest impact on trade. All combinations of freedom are used to find the mixture of freedom which yields the largest trade gains. The largest gains from trade generally combine Business Regulation in a variety of different configurations. The smallest gains, or losses, to trade arise with augmented monetary independence. (JEL D02, F14, F55)     

Leadership and Its Consequences: Technical Change in the Longshore Industry

The leadership of the two U.S. longshore unions used different strategies when faced with technical change during the period 1959–89. One union used its market power to maintain membership and increase wages and benefits; the other concentrated on wages, benefits, and adjustment mechanisms. The first strategy was economically superior in the short run, but led to reduced wages and employment in the long run.     

Industry Returns and the Fisher Effect

We investigate the cross-sectional relation between industry-sorted stock returns and expected inflation, and we find that this relation is linked to cyclical movements in industry output. Stock returns of noncyclical industries tend to covary positively with expected inflation, while the reverse holds for cyclical industries. From a theoretical perspective, we describe a model that captures both (i) the cross-sectional variation in these relations across industries, and (ii) the negative and positive relation between stock returns and inflation at short and long horizons, respectively. The model is developed in an economic environment in which the spirit of the Fisher model is preserved.     

Finance Research Productivity and Influence

This study examines differences in finance research productivity and influence across 661 academic institutions over the five-year period from 1989 through 1993. We find that 40 institutions account for over 50 percent of all articles published by 16 leading journals over the five-year period; 66 institutions account for two-thirds of the articles. Influence is more skewed, with as few as 20 institutions accounting for 50 percent of all citations to articles in these journals. The number of publications and publication influence increase with faculty size and academic accreditation. Prestigious business schools are associated with high publication productivity and influence.     

Estimation of Implicit Bankruptcy Costs

This paper presents a new methodology, quasilinear estimation, for efficiently estimating economic variables reflected in the prices of corporate securities. For example, ex ante bankruptcy costs are not directly observable, however, if these costs are sufficiently large, then current security prices are affected and bankruptcy costs can be indirectly measured. When bankruptcy costs and other relevant parameters are known, there are many numerical solution techniques that can be used to determine security prices. One technique, the method of lines, is compatible with quasilinear estimation, which has been employed extensively in the physical sciences for the estimation of coefficients in differential equation models. We demonstrate that quasilinear estimation is a potentially reliable and efficient technique for the estimation of corporate bankruptcy costs and the asset variance from security prices.     

The HQ Production Function

A sixth-degree production function of Henderson and Quands (1958), that exhibits increasing and then decreasing returns to scale, is generalized to allow for non-homotheticity as well as homotheticity. Although the long-run function lacks the desirable short-run attribute of the original function, it has the advantage that the cross-marginal product is conventionally positive The simplicity and versatility of die HQ production function make it useful for computer simulations of long-run competitive market equilibrium with a determinate number of firms.