FORECASTING FDI EQUITY INCOME FOR THE DANISH BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

Late and significant revisions are often observed in FDI equity income in many countries, hampering the quality of preliminary balance of payments statistics. We test a range of models on Danish data and find that forecasts for FDI equity income based on a combination of past profitability and consensus data for changes in expected private consumption growth outperform forecasts solely based on historical profitability. When the refined models are applied to the Danish balance of payments, the largest improvements are observed for outward and inward FDI separately. Revisions of net FDI equity income only decrease marginally because the significant revisions in gross terms resulting from the historical models have a tendency to (partly) cancel out each other on a net basis.     

The Impact of Retirement on Household Leisure Expenditures

Household leisure expenditures for retired and near‐retired households were examined in order to better understand the dynamics associated with the move to retirement status. Data from the 1995 Consumer Expenditure Survey indicated that retirement, total expenditures, and education had positive impacts on leisure expenditures. For retired households, greater total expenditures and education increased expenditures, while age and the presence of earned income decreased expenditures. For near‐retired households, greater total expenditures, education, and the presence of asset income significantly increased leisure expenditures.     

MALE-FEMALE SALARY DIFFERENTIALS IN BRITISH UNIVERSITIES

The average salary differential between male and female academicsin Britain in 1992 exceeded 15%. Using individual data coveringall full-time academic staff in the old universities for theyears 1975, 1985, and 1992, we find that a significant partof the differential is explained by the fact that women areunder-represented in senior ranks. However, even after controllingfor rank, age, tenure, and faculty, a gender effect in the remunerationof British academics remains. Moreover, neither the averagesalary-gap nor that part attributable to an independent gendereffect have fallen since 1975.     

Elderly consumers: a British comment

Elderly people in Britain, a substantial minority of some 18% of the total population, are not only market-place consumers but major users of social services. With reference to a recent investigation in the U.S., this paper looks at the British situation. Issues discussed include the limitations arising from relatively low incomes, advice opportunities and trends, and major problems in the supply of social services.     

Satisfaction with household production: the effect of time spent in household production by husbands and wives

The purpose of the study was to examine the relationship between the extent of household production and satisfaction with household production. Data were obtained from 400 married couples who responded to a postal questionnaire. The dependent variable was an index of satisfaction incorporating two aspects of household production, quality and quantity. Regression analysis indicated that of the three variables representing the extent of household production in the model — hours spent by each spouse in household production and an activity index to measure the number of household production activities — only husband's hours spent in household production demonstrated a significant, independent effect. Other significant variables included husband's hours of market work, household net worth, age of respondent and gender of respondent. Two significant interactions indicated that (i) the relationship between wife's hours of household production and satisfaction with household production differed according to the gender of the respondent, and (ii) the relationship of husband's hours of market work and satisfaction differed according to the age of the respondent.     

Quand les analystes ajustent‐ils leurs évaluations en fonction du biais des annonces de résultats prévisionnels ? Conséquences de la feuille de route des entreprises en ce qui a trait à la publication de résultats prévisionnels et enjeux motivant les analystes

Les études précédentes indiquent que les analystes n’ajustent pas totalement leurs évaluations en fonction du biais général à la baisse des annonces de résultats prévisionnels faites par les directions d’entreprises. Les auteurs rapportent les résultats de deux expériences visant à déterminer comment la feuille de route des entreprises en ce qui a trait à la publication de résultats prévisionnels et les enjeux motivant les analystes expliquent de concert la mesure dans laquelle ces derniers ajustent leurs évaluations en fonction du biais des annonces de résultats prévisionnels. Ces résultats d’expérience semblent indiquer que les analystes pour qui l’enjeu est celui de l’exactitude ajustent leurs évaluations selon la feuille de route de la direction en ce qui a trait à la publication de résultats prévisionnels biaisés à la baisse lorsque le biais est relativement modeste (un cent), mais que les analystes pour qui l’enjeu est celui de leur relation avec la direction s’en abstiennent. Au surplus, la différence dans l’ajustement est plus importante lorsque la feuille de route de l’entreprise en matière de biais est irrégulière que lorsqu’elle est régulière. Aussi, lorsque le biais des annonces de résultats prévisionnels est plus important que moins (deux cents par rapport à un cent), les analystes pour qui l’enjeu est celui de la relation avec la direction procèdent à un ajustement partiel, paraissant ainsi rechercher un équilibre entre exactitude et volonté de plaire à la direction. Ces constatations ont des répercussions pour les investisseurs, les autorités de réglementation et l’interprétation des études précédentes.     

Rent Control,A Costly Redistributive Device? The Case of Canberra*

This paper assesses the consequences of compulsory rent and eviction control which was imposed in Canberra in 1973. A partial equilibrium model is utilized, but the effects of rent control on related markets are also considered. Two ways of estimating market rent are scrutinized, one of which is utilized in an attempt to measure tenants' benefits from the policy. A Hicks' equivalent variation measure of ‘tenants’ surplus' is proposed which takes account of the quantity constraint associated with rent control. This is estimated assuming a Cobb-Douglas utility function. The extent of the costs associated with conferring these benefits is indicated.     

When Do Analysts Adjust for Biases in Management Guidance? Effects of Guidance Track Record and Analysts’ Incentives

Prior research indicates that analysts do not fully adjust for the general downward bias in earnings guidance issued by management. We report the results of two experiments designed to investigate how guidance track record and analysts’ incentives jointly explain the extent to which analysts adjust for guidance bias. Our results suggest that analysts with accuracy incentives adjust for management’s track record of downwardly biased guidance when the bias is relatively small (one cent), but those with relationship incentives do not. Furthermore, the difference in adjustment is larger when the bias track record is inconsistent than when it is consistent. Also, when guidance bias is larger (two cents) relative to smaller (one cent), analysts with relationship incentives partially adjust, as they appear to strike a balance between accuracy and their desire to please management. These findings hold implications for investors, regulators, and the interpretation of prior research.