On Bonus and Bonus Prognoses in Life Insurance

The surplus on a life insurance policy is defined, at any time during the term of the contract, as the difference between the second order retrospective reserve and the first order prospective reserve. General principles for redistribution of the systematic part of the surplus as bonus are formulated, and various special bonus schemes are discussed. Techniques for forecasting future bonuses are worked out in an extended model with stochastic experience basis. Numerical illustrations are provided.     

Plant Exit, Vintage Capital and the Business Cycle

Despite the large literature on plant exit behavior, little attention has been paid to the vintage capital theory as an alternative hypothesis to learning. Learning models predict that exit rates decrease with plant age and the vintage capital theory predicts that exit rates increase with the age of capital. We use a panel of Norwegian manufacturing plants and construct an index of capital age to distinguish between the effects on exit rates. The empirical results imply that there is both a learning effect and a vintage capital effect. We also find that exit rates depend on the business cycle, and increase in severe downturns.     

Optimal Feedback Controls: Comparative Evaluation of the Cod Fisheries in Denmark, Iceland, and Norway

The economic efficiencies of the Danish, Icelandic, and Norwegian cod fisheries are examined. For this purpose, nonlinear aggregate models of these fisheries are constructed. Comparing the calculated optimal harvest and biomass quantities with the actual fisheries provides a measure of the degree of efficiency in these fisheries. The comparisons confirm that the cod harvesting policies of these countries have been hugely inefficient in the past. It appears that inefficiency has been increasing over the last three to four decades, even after TAC regulations replaced open access, indicating that the management policies adopted by all three countries have failed to cure overfishing.     

Transparency of medicines data and safety issues–a European/US study of doctors’ opinions: what does the evidence show?

Over the past 10 years, European pharmaceutical regulators (especially the European Medicines Agency [EMA]) have enacted a wave of transparency policies. Since 2010, the overwhelming majority have focused on releasing more scientific medicines information online and providing open access to regulatory data. Amongst other benefits, EMA expects its policies to build public trust and provide outsiders with a better understanding of regulatory decision-making. Yet, few studies have empirically examined the EMA’s transparency policies, especially on the end users of ‘transparent’ information (e.g. medical doctors or patients). This paper presents standout findings from a November 2014 survey conducted in Spain, Germany, France and the United Kingdom with a sample of 1005 general practitioners and medical specialists treating either multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, osteoporosis, idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis or HIV/AIDS. The study found that 76% of respondents think it is a bad idea to release information into the public domain before possible safety issues have been investigated by the regulators and (relevant) pharmaceutical company. The results also suggested that medical doctors in Europe have a poor understanding of pharmaceutical regulatory activities. In particular, the majority were largely unaware of the current activities of the EMA, did not have good knowledge of how the regulators assess the safety of medicines (e.g. only 17% said they had good knowledge of how EMA assess the safety of medicines) and were unfamiliar with regulatory documents frequently used by regulators and industry to discuss the safety of medicines (e.g. in approving a medicine).     

A dynamic profit function with adjustment costs for outputs

It is well known that there are adjustment costs associated with many input factors, which delays firms response to changes in relative prices. Although adjustment costs are implicitly acknowledged when a cost rather than profit function is used, little attention has been given to adjustment costs for outputs. However, in many cases there will also be adjustment costs associated with changes in the product mix for multioutput firms. In this paper we formulate a firm’s optimization problem in a profit maximizing set up that allows adjustment costs for all netputs from which it follows that adjustment cost for some factors affect the adjustment of both inputs and outputs. We also show that one can test whether a factor is quasi-fixed or fully fixed.      

Looking back and going forward: what should the new European Commission do in order to promote evidence-based policy-making?

In this paper, we first give an overview of what has happened in Europe within the area of regulation over the past 5 years or so. We then examine where the new European Commission and the Parliament are with regard to evidence-based and risk-informed policy-making taking a specific look at the importance of transparency among European regulatory agencies, the calls for better regulation that were initiated by First Vice President Timmermans, and the continued mis-use of the precautionary principle. In the final section, we provide a number of recommendations on what the Commission and the Parliament should do going forward including moving away from fish bowl to science-based transparency, making the member states more receptive to science-based policy-making and strengthening the capacity of the European Commission to further promote evidence-based and risk-informed policy-making.     

Cattle sharing and rental contracts in an Agrarian economy: evidence from Ethiopia

Empirical evidence on the role of cattle sharing and rental contracts in agrarian economies is limited. This article is an investigation of different types of cattle sharing and rental contracts producers in rural Ethiopia adopt. It also investigates why households in rural Ethiopia rely on these contracts that are vulnerable and therefore subject to potential moral hazard problems described in earlier literature. We apply random effect probit and control function econometric methods to household panel data collected in 2005 and 2007 from two agro‐ecological zones in Ethiopia. Controlling for the endogeneity of access to livestock credit, we find that contracts are spatially fragmented and better developed where population density is high and credit and insurance markets are poorly developed. We also find that contracts help cash poor and credit constrained households to improve their herd dynamics, to get access to nonlivestock resources (land, labor and cash) and share risks that could have been difficult without the contract. We show that contracts are rational responses of residents in rural communities characterized by imperfect credit and insurance services, since households with better access to credit are less likely to rely on contracts.     

Cost Structure and Vertical Integration between Farming and Processing

In several food‐producing sectors, we observe vertical integration between the farming and processing stages. The salmon industry, which has motivated this paper, has seen a rise in large vertically integrated companies over the last decade, with direct ownership of production activities including hatcheries, fish processing and exporting. Both the farming and processing stages have become more capital intensive, which has led to a steeper U‐shaped average cost (AC) curve. In this paper we present a theoretical link between this technological shift and vertical integration: in a repeated game model of relational contracting, we show that when the AC curve is sufficiently steep, then processors and farmers are more likely to vertically integrate. The reason is that steep AC curves make it costly to deviate from the optimal production scale, which in turn makes processors more vulnerable to hold‐up and opportunistic behaviours from its suppliers.