Sur le calcul numérique des moments ordinaires et des moments composés d'une distribution statistique

Abstract

Considérons une distribution statistique (empirique ou théorique) x _v (v = 1, 2 ... n) désignant les valeurs que peut assumer une variable fortuite une-dimensionelle x, et P_v (v= 1,2 ... n) désignant les fréquences observées (absolues ou relatives) ou bien les probabilités des valeurs x_v .     

Interactions between Agriculture and Industry: Theoretical Analysis of the Consequences of Discriminating Agriculture in Sub–Saharan Africa

Many countries in sub–Saharan Africa discriminated against agriculture to promote industry after independence. The domestic terms of trade were turned against agriculture by the price fixing of monopoly marketing boards. This policy was assumed to reduce labor costs of industry and was combined with overvaluation of the currency, protectionism, and priority rationing of imported inputs to industry. The region got the worst of both worlds—stagnation in both agriculture and industry. What went wrong? In a dual model designed to represent characteristics of the region, discrimination of agriculture is shown to contract industry through trade linkages. Export–oriented agriculture has been held back, and import–dependent industries have suffered because of the foreign exchange constraint. In a dynamic extension assuming learning–by–doing in industry and catching–up in agriculture, it is shown that discrimination against agriculture may reduce the growth rate of the economy and the technological advantage of industry.     

Transparency and trust in the European pharmaceutical sector: outcomes from an experimental study

Many European pharmaceutical regulators have committed to a more open, inclusive, and transparent model of regulatory decision-making in recent years. Yet, based on little empirical evidence, they have overwhelmingly adopted ‘fishbowl’ transparency measures, ‘the full disclosure of information without explanatory information or contextualization’ (e.g. heightening access to raw data). This paper conveys recent findings from an open-ended questionnaire with 200 face-to-face interviews carried out in the UK and the Netherlands. The study provides evidence on how members of the public are likely to react to ‘fishbowl’ transparency policies and receiving decontextualized data. After showing respondents raw data from a periodic safety update report that regulators are proposing to proactively release, the survey found they were shocked, concerned, and more worried, while many said they would reconsider taking their medicines and seek further advice. Based on these findings, the authors argue that enhancing ‘transparency’ needs to be integrated with effective, evidence- and science-based benefit/risk communication.     

Hospitalized fall-related injury trends in Sweden between 2001 and 2010

Previous studies have indicated increasing trends of hospitalized fall-related injuries amongst elderly. Whether this is true also in Sweden is unknown though it is important to study considering the potential societal impact. Data were obtained regarding hospitalized injuries with falls as external cause among those aged 65 years and above with information on injury type, gender and age, on a yearly basis, from 2001 to 2010. Age- and sex-specific incidence rates were calculated (per 100,000 population) for all fall-related injuries, and for each injury type and trend lines were drawn. Linear regression analyses and percentage change were calculated for the types of fall-related injuries. A decreasing incidence was observed in the younger age groups (65–79 years) with greater decreases amongst women (women: ?14.6%, men 65–79 years: ?10.5%). However, increasing rates were observed in the older age group (80 years and above), with greater increases amongst men (women: 4.3%, men: 11.4%). Superficial injuries showed greater increases than fractures amongst those aged 80 years and above. This study indicates that older elderly in Sweden are increasingly being hospitalized for less serious injuries. This changing injury panorama is important to include in the future planning of both health care and fall-related prevention.     

Discussion of the paper by Aven and Myre

The paper is an interesting contribution to the development of actuarial statistics. Loss of profits insurance presents some peculiar problems that have received little attention from actuaries and—as far as I know—the model framework proposed by the authors has not formerly been applied to actuarial problems.     

MOSES: Model for studying the economy of Sweden

MOSES is an aggregate econometric model for Sweden, estimated on quarterly data, and intended for policy simulations and short-term forecasting. After a presentation of qualitative model properties, the econometric methodology is summarized. The model properties, within sample simulations, and forecast evaluations are presented. We also address methodology and practical issues relating to building and maintaining a macro model of this type. The detailed econometric equations are reported in Appendix A.“I think it should be generally agreed that a model that does not generate many properties of actual data cannot be claimed to have any ‘policy implications’…”Clive.W. J. Granger (1992, p. 4).     

Gender-specifics in start-up strategies and the role of the entrepreneurial ecosystem

Small Business Economics - This paper investigates the extent to which females and males experience the support that is provided by the entrepreneurial ecosystem for their start-up activities...     

On the epidemiology of injury in developing countries: A one-year emergency room-based surveillance experience from León,Nicaragua

Background Regularly available data has been shown to be inadequate for developing, implementing, and evaluating injury prevention and control programs in Nicaragua. A specific prevention-oriented local injury surveillance system has therefore been set up in the city of León. Objectives The aim of this paper is to describe the epidemiology of fatal and non-fatal injuries over a one-year period in a well-defined local population in Nicaragua, as emerging from the perspective of emergency room and inpatient treatments over a one-year period. Methods A hospital-based injury surveillance system was established to collect data for different levels of severity. All treated unintentional and intentional injuries were registered, including information on the external causes according to the ICD-9. Results Of all emergency room visits, 15.9% (9,970) were injuries. For every death due to injuries, there were 31 hospital admissions and 253 emergency room visits. Home and street/roads were the main arenas for the accidents. The estimated underreporting rate was about 6%, and in 20.3% of the cases, no E-code was assigned. The overall incidence and mortality rates were 56.2 per 1,000 and 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively. However, comparison with a parallel household survey showed that the reporting rate of the surveillance system is only about 9%. The overall ratio of male to female injury rates was 2.1 to 1. The main causes of non-fatal injuries were falls, whereas the main cause of death was traffic accidents. Conclusions Hospital discharge and emergency room data systems are effective and feasible means for collecting the data needed to prevent injuries. However, in a country like Nicaragua with limited access to hospital health services, it is necessary to supplement such a system with additional sources of information in order to gain a more comprehensive picture of injury occurrence.