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This paper develops a real option model in which the interaction between debt, liquidation policy and risky investments is studied. We consider a manager who owns the firm and faces the opportunity to invest in risky projects which may boost current profits at the cost of bankruptcy if they turn out to be unsuccessful. These investments are “last resort gambles” in the sense that, if successful, they save the company from insolvency, while, if unsuccessful, they make liquidation unavoidable. It is shown that last resort gambles delay liquidation. We study how the liquidation trigger and the last resort investment decisions are affected by the firm's capital structure. 相似文献
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The classical forecasting theory of stationary time series exploits the second-order structure (variance, autocovariance, and spectral density) of an observed process in order to construct some prediction intervals. However, some economic time series show a time-varying unconditional second-order structure. This article focuses on a simple and meaningful model allowing this nonstationary behaviour. We show that this model satisfactorily explains the nonstationary behaviour of several economic data sets, among which are the U.S. stock returns and exchange rates. The question of how to forecast these processes is addressed and evaluated on the data sets. 相似文献
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Major DAC donors are widely criticized for weak targeting of aid, selfish aid motives, and insufficient coordination. The emergence of an increasing number of new donors may further complicate the coordination of international aid efforts. At the same time, it is open to question whether new donors (many of which were aid recipients until recently) are more altruistic and provide better targeted aid according to need and merit. Project-level data on aid by new donors, as collected by the AidData initiative, allow for empirical analyses comparing the allocation behavior of new versus old donors. We employ Probit and Tobit models and test for significant differences in the distribution of aid by new and old donors across recipient countries. We find that, on average, new donors care less for recipient need than old donors. New and old donors behave similarly in several respects, however. They disregard merit by not taking the level of corruption in recipient countries into account. Concerns that commercial self-interest distorts the allocation of aid seem to be overblown for both groups. 相似文献
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Using a new data set for 41 German non‐governmental organisations (NGOs), we analyse the allocation of NGO aid across recipient countries in a Tobit regression framework. By identifying for each NGO the degree of official financing, we address the largely unresolved issue of whether financial dependence on the government impairs the targeting of NGO aid. It turns out that German NGOs are more active in poorer countries, while they do not complement official aid by working under difficult local conditions. Beyond a certain threshold, rising financial dependence weakens their poverty orientation and provides an incentive to engage in ‘easier’ environments. In addition, we find that the NGOs follow the state as well as NGO peers when allocating aid. This herding behaviour is, however, hardly affected by the degree of official financing. 相似文献
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Zusammenfassung Aufgrund der derzeitigen Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise wird die Verschuldung der ?ffentlichen Haushalte in diesem und dem kommenden
Jahr so erheblich steigen, dass es selbst unter günstigen gesamt- und finanzwirtschaftlichen Rahmenbedingungen mindestens
ein Jahrzehnt dauern k?nnte, bis Deutschland wieder beide Verschuldungsgrenzen des Maastricht-Vertrages einhalten wird. Wie
rasch kann die hohe Staatsschuldenquote zurückgeführt werden? Welchen Beitrag kann die Finanzpolitik für ein angemessenes
Wirtschaftswachstum leisten? Wie sollte die Konsolidierungsstrategie ausgerichtet sein?
Heinz Gebhardt, 56, Dipl.-Volkswirt, arbeitet in den Kompetenzbereichen „?ffentliche Finanzen“ und „Wachstum und Konjunktur“
des RWI Essen; Dr. Rainer Kambeck, 47, ist Leiter des Kompetenzbereichs „?ffentliche Finanzen“.
Die Autoren danken Christoph M. Schmidt für kritische Anmerkungen und hilfreiche Kommentare. 相似文献