Estimating Contagion on the Internet: Evidence from the Diffusion of Digital/Information Products

Even as the Internet continues to grow as a global platform for communication and commerce, the success of new value offerings on the Internet hinges on acquisition of new customers and retention of existing customers. Central to the flow of customers in and out of trial and repeat behavior in this burgeoning and dynamic environment, characterized by diversity among both producers and consumers of value offerings, is the process of social contagion—active word of mouth that flows among customers or passive observation of others. To estimate contagion on the Internet, the authors develop a trial-repeat purchase diffusion model for successive innovations in value offerings on the Internet. The model extends the state-of-the-art diffusion modeling by incorporating (i) dynamic market potential, (ii) heterogeneity among first-time triers, (iii) heterogeneity in word of mouth due to repeat buyers and non-repeaters (i.e., positive and negative word of mouth), and (iv) dynamic repeat purchase rate. The model also incorporates the influence of product characteristics, specifically source of innovation (i.e., whether the innovation is driven by environmental needs or competitive pressures) and product bundling, and competition. The authors test the model with weekly adoption data for 11 computer software products available on the shareware system, involving over 100 new versions in the period 1991–1994, and in a market whose size grows by a factor of fifty from early 1991 to late 1994. The findings clarify the role of word of mouth effects, competition, and product characteristics in fostering the diffusion process for digital information goods.     

Understanding the antecedents of collateral learning in new product alliances

Recognizing that strategic alliances represent an important means for developing knowledge in critical arenas such as new product development, the authors advance the notion of collateral learning that assesses knowledge acquisition internal to a firm in the alliance. To examine its antecedents, the authors build on the behavioral theory of the firm and propose strategic importance and performance vulnerability as the motivational components and organizational similarity and alliance experience as the awareness components advocated in the theory. Results from 133 alliance firms suggest that both the motivational and awareness components are important in influencing collateral learning in new product alliances. Specifically, to develop collateral learning, firms should have extensive alliance experience and an acknowledged stake in their alliance partners. The results also support the theorized U-shaped relationship between organizational similarity of the alliance partners and collateral learning. Thus, collateral learning is facilitated when organizations are either similar or dissimilar, while medium levels of organizational similarity facilitate collateral learning to a relatively lower extent. Although performance vulnerability is found to be associated negatively with collateral learning, extensive alliance experience can attenuate this negative effect.     

Foreign entry and bank competition

Foreign entry and bank competition are modeled as the interaction between asymmetrically informed principals: The entrant uses collateral as a screening device to contest the incumbent's informational advantage. Both better information ex ante and stronger legal protection ex post are shown to facilitate the entry of low-cost outside competitors into credit markets. The entrant's success in gaining borrowers of higher quality by offering cheaper loans increases with its efficiency (cost) advantage. This paper accounts for evidence suggesting that foreign banks tend to lend more to large firms thereby neglecting small and medium enterprises. The results also explain why this observed bias is stronger in emerging markets.     

The generality of spurious predictability

Previous empirical work has documented significant predictability (non-zero cross autocorrelations) in short-term security returns. Extant theoretical papers have shown that these cross autocorrelations can arise due to partial impounding of information in securities whose returns are driven by a common factor. In this paper, we show that non-zero cross autocorrelation in security returns can arise under weaker conditions than is generally known. We demonstrate that the existence of cross autocorrelations crucially depends on the information structure of informed traders. Thus, a common factor in security returns is neither sufficient nor necessary. Any one of the following conditions on the information structure can generate non-zero cross autocorrelations:

(1) existence of an informed trader with information relevant to two securities;

(2) correlation in the signal of informed traders with information relevant to different securities; or

(3) correlation in uninformed trading.

These cross autocorrelations are then shown to be spurious. That is, traders without any private information cannot make positive trading profit by exploiting cross autocorrelations.     

Sale-Backs in Bankruptcy

When bankrupt firms are sold, they are often repurchased bytheir former owner or manager. These insiders are by defaultbetter informed than outsiders about the true value of the firmor its assets, so other potential buyers must worry about overpayingif they win. The presence of insiders may thus have a chillingeffect on the bidding. We ask how insiders should be treatedin bankruptcy sales: Should they be allowed to submit bids?If so, under what conditions? We derive properties of an optimalsale procedure and show that it must be biased against insiders.Specifically, it should be harder for insiders to win with lowbids than for outsiders. We show that the "market tests" thatare routinely required in bankruptcy sales are suboptimal sincethey treat all potential buyers alike and forgo the benefitsof biasing the procedure against insiders.     

Does advertising strategy matter in influencing mutual fund purchase?

This study explores the role of advertising strategies (informational versus transformational) in consumers’ purchase intentions related to mutual funds. Moreover, this study investigates the possible moderating role of gender and financial literacy in advertising strategy. Findings of the experimental approach applied in this study suggest that advertisement strategy does influence investment intention related to the mutual funds. We also found that females are less likely to purchase mutual funds when exposed to transformational advertisements. Moreover, investors with higher financial literacy prefer informational advertisements. The results also indicate that the informational advertisements are more useful and increase awareness levels among investors.     

Environments, unobserved heterogeneity, and the effect of market orientation on outcomes for high-tech firms

The interaction between market orientation and facets of the environment is theoretically compelling and is hence the primary interaction studied in market orientation literature. Yet empirical literature offers mixed findings regarding these interaction effects. We suggest that these mixed findings may result from the failure of extant research to control for unobserved heterogeneity that may mask the true relationships among market orientation, facets of the environment, and firm outcomes. Such unobserved heterogeneity might arise due to presence of higher order (e.g., three-way, four-way) moderators (e.g., firm size and innovativeness). To illustrate our assertions on unobserved heterogeneity and the role of firm size and innovativeness, we present two studies that use firm performance or new product performance as the outcome variable; the studies (1) include market orientation, two facets of the environment (technological turbulence and market dynamism), and the interactions between market orientation and facets of the environment as explanatory variables, (2) employ finite mixture regression models to estimate the relationships of interest while explicitly accounting for unobserved heterogeneity in the form of latent regimes (segments), and (3) use firm size and innovativeness as concomitant profiling variables in the finite mixture model specification. The results indicate that disaggregate models (i.e., multi-regime solutions) offer the best fit in both studies. The effects across the latent regimes differ, demonstrating the possibility of an aggregation bias in empirical literature and suggesting the need for using disaggregated analyses to study important marketing phenomena. In theoretical terms, these results also suggest the possibility of developing theories that incorporate unobserved heterogeneity and perhaps higher order (e.g., three-way) interaction effects.     

Who competes with whom? A demand‐based perspective for identifying and representing asymmetric competition

A host of strategic management and marketing issues, including competitive analysis and strategic decision making, hinges on accurately identifying and representing competitive market structures. It is readily acknowledged that competitive market structures are typically asymmetric; namely, one firm may actively compete with another in a given market but not vice versa. However, empirical efforts to assess these competitive asymmetries have been lacking in the strategy literature. We propose a new spatial methodology to identify and represent asymmetric competitive market structures. Specifically, we devise a new stochastic multidimensional scaling procedure that is calibrated from actual consumer consideration/choice sets to estimate and uncover competitive asymmetries. The proposed methodology can be effectively employed in the analysis of appropriate data from either demand‐ or supply‐side approaches to assess competitive market structure. We illustrate our proposed methodology with survey data collected from two different commercial applications: one from the U.S. luxury automobile market and the other from the U.S. portable telephone market. We contrast the findings of the proposed methodology against traditional symmetric approaches for identifying and representing competitive market structures, and discuss the respective strategic insights. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The economics of club bidding and value creation

Many acquisitions are conducted by clubs, i.e., coalitions of acquirers that submit a single bid. We present a novel analysis of club bidding where the club creates value by aggregating, at least partially, bidders' values. We show that club formation can lead to higher acquisition prices when the number of bidders is exogenously fixed and large. However, when entry costs require bidders to optimize their participation decisions, club formation acts as an endogenous limit on competition and reduces the target's premium. In contrast, social efficiency with club bidding is always higher. Our findings can reconcile the contradictory evidence on club bidding.     

Putting market-facing technology to work: Organizational drivers of CRM performance

A large proportion of firms that adopt customer relationship management (CRM) technology find it challenging to integrate CRM technology into their core marketing processes and utilize CRM strategically to appreciably improve their performance. The authors conceptualize a model to understand the drivers of superior CRM performance after CRM technology has been adopted by a firm and examine strategic utilization of CRM technology as driven by user acceptance and proficiency in the form of employee buy-in and expertise. Top management championship practices, employee information technology (IT) skills, and CRM knowledge are identified and examined as key building blocks toward strategic utilization. The empirical test of the conceptual model is based on a mail survey of North American firms that have adopted information technology-based CRM systems. The results, based on random effects model, show that strategic utilization of CRM technology leads to higher performance when there is an emphasis on using it to manage business-to-business rather than business-to-consumer relationships, user expertise (but not buy-in) impacts CRM performance through strategic utilization, and top management championship practices, CRM knowledge, and employee IT skills impact strategic utilization through buy-in and expertise.