Does implied volatility provide any information beyond that captured in model-based volatility forecasts?

This paper contributes to our understanding of the informational content of implied volatility. Here we examine whether the S&P 500 implied volatility index (VIX) contains any information relevant to future volatility beyond that available from model based volatility forecasts. It is argued that this approach differs from the traditional forecast encompassing approach used in earlier studies. The findings indicate that the VIX index does not contain any such additional information relevant for forecasting volatility.     

Evolutionary Stability in the Ultimatum Game

Biologically motivated concepts of evolutionary stability, like the ESS, consider robustness against tiny invasions of mutants. This paper considers larger invasions and proposes an extended stability calculus. The new concept is applied to the ultimatum game and gives an evolutionary explanation for the emergence of egalitarian, "fair" behaviour.     

A general test for time dependence in parameters

A new test for time‐dependent parameters is proposed. The Trig‐test is based on a trigonometric expansion to approximate the unknown functional form of the variation in the parameters concerned. It is shown to have the correct empirical size and excellent power to detect structural breaks and stochastic parameter variation. The appropriate use of the Trig‐test is demonstrated by testing for structural breaks in the US inflation rate. The test detects a statistically significant increase in the US inflation rate beginning in the early 1970s and lasting through to the early 1980s. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Relationship of Persuasion Knowledge,Identification of Commercial Intent and Persuasion Outcomes in Advergames—the Role of Media Context and Presence

Across two studies, the authors investigate the extent to which children’s persuasion knowledge of an advertising tactic (advergame and TV commercial) and their level of engagement with the medium (presence) influence their identification of commercial content and persuasion outcomes. In line with theoretical predictions of the persuasion knowledge model, results showed that those children who had more knowledge about advertisers’ tactics were more likely to identify brands and commercial content in the advergame and less likely to be influenced. However, a high level of presence in the medium moderated the effect of persuasion knowledge on persuasion outcomes.     

Forecasting Euro‐Area Macroeconomic Variables Using a Factor Model Approach for Backdating

We suggest to use a factor model based backdating procedure to construct historical Euro‐area macroeconomic time series data for the pre‐Euro period. We argue that this is a useful alternative to standard contemporaneous aggregation methods. The article investigates for a number of Euro‐area variables whether forecasts based on the factor‐backdated data are more precise than those obtained with standard area‐wide data. A recursive pseudo‐out‐of‐sample forecasting experiment using quarterly data is conducted. Our results suggest that some key variables (e.g. real GDP, inflation and long‐term interest rate) can indeed be forecasted more precisely with the factor‐backdated data.     

The importance of threat,strategy, and resource appraisals for long-term proactive risk management among forest owners in Sweden

In natural hazards management, it is important to understand what motivates people to act when they or their property are threatened by natural hazards. Despite the importance of both threat and coping appraisals for responses to threats, less is known about the relations between threat and coping appraisals when risk management is long term. The present study examined appraisals of threat (cognitive and emotional), personal resources (cost and self-efficacy), and strategies (response-efficacy) as predictors of proactive management responses (past behavior and future intention) among forest owners in Sweden by means of a questionnaire (n = 1482). A path analysis revealed that threat appraisals and response-efficacy were direct predictors of past risk management behavior and the intention to respond in the future. Appraisals of resources, including cost and self-efficacy, were indirectly – via forest susceptibility and threat appraisals – related to threat responses. Although the model displayed reasonable fit for both owners more and those less involved in forestry, the cognitive appraisals variable was not a significant predictor of responses among owners less involved in forestry. In the full sample, the examined model explained approximately 50% of the variance in threat appraisals, and 28 and 17% in future intention and past behavior, respectively. Theoretical implications for how threat and coping appraisals are related during long-term risk management, and practical implications for forest risk management, are discussed.