WOULD AUSTRALIA–NEW ZEALAND BE A VIABLE CURRENCY UNION? EVIDENCE FROM INTERSTATE RISK‐SHARING PERFORMANCES

In this article, we first measure the potential welfare gains from perfect risk sharing among Australian states and New Zealand regions under possible unification. We show that New Zealand regions reap moderate gains from perfect risk sharing when they form a union with Australia, whereas for Australian states, the gains are somewhat similar to what they have attained at the intranational level. Second, we measure the extent of interstate risk sharing and intertemporal smoothing between the two countries. We are able to observe a substantial degree of intertemporal smoothing among Australian states and New Zealand regions, either alone or jointly, thus confirming the permanent income hypothesis. Further, unique to the risk‐sharing literature, we decompose the aggregate (nondiversifiable) output shocks into positive and negative components, in order to assess the strength of risk‐sharing mechanisms across business cycles. The study finds a virtual absence of risk sharing when Australia and New Zealand face negative aggregate fluctuations, raising doubts about the feasibility of the union, particularly during economic downturns. (JEL F41, F36)     

Corporate governance performance ratings with machine learning

We use machine learning with a cross-sectional research design to predict governance controversies and to develop a measure of the governance component of the environmental, social, governance (ESG) metrics. Based on comprehensive governance data from 2,517 companies over a period of 10 years and investigating nine machine-learning algorithms, we find that governance controversies can be predicted with high predictive performance. Our proposed governance rating methodology has two unique advantages compared with traditional ESG ratings: it rates companies' compliance with governance responsibilities and it has predictive validity. Our study demonstrates a solution to what is likely the greatest challenge for the finance industry today: how to assess a company's sustainability with validity and accuracy. Prior to this study, the ESG rating industry and the literature have not provided evidence that widely adopted governance ratings are valid. This study describes the only methodology for developing governance performance ratings based on companies' compliance with governance responsibilities and for which there is evidence of predictive validity.     

Wind of change brought by COVID-19: Exploring the response and the new normal from the perspectives of Indian flexpatriates

Drawing from the positive organizational change theory, this paper aims to explore how Indian flexpatriates responded to the change brought by the pandemic of COVID-19 and what is the new normal according to them. Thematic analysis of 19 in-depth interviews with flexpatriates from the IT industry revealed four explicit phases of change process – reflection, communication, collaboration, and transformation. Further, the analysis brought out four tenets of the new normal. First, it is time to blend physical and virtual work; second, the “personal” touch of Indians in international assignments is irreplaceable; third, working from home amidst the entire household being housebound is the new normal; and last, international travel will resume soon with some changed protocols. This is the first qualitative study combining the issue of global talent management with Indian flexpatriates vis-à-vis the impact of COVID-19, the findings of which expand the positive organizational change theory and have important implications.