Return predictability and the real option value of segments

Theory suggests that firm value should include the value of real options; that is, firms have the option to expand more profitable businesses and liquidate less profitable businesses. In a diversified firm, each segment has its own real options. Applying real options theory to a diversified firm at the firm level neglects the value of segment-level options. If investors overlook segment-level options, mispricing will occur. Using data from 1981 to 2013, we find that a hedge portfolio buying diversified firms in the highest decile of the estimated real option value of segments (RVS) and selling those in the lowest RVS decile earns a significant 0.79% size-adjusted monthly return. The hedge returns are more significant for firms whose growth opportunities mainly lie in the more profitable segments. We also find that the predictive power of RVS is stronger for firms with high growth, lower analyst coverage, and stronger corporate governance. Further investigation links improved operating performance to the exercise of segment-level real options.     

冒风险的决策者：聪明乎？糊涂乎？

决策是对行为的选择——选择做什么或者不做什么,是人类的高级认知活动之一。风险决策特指决策者在对未来情况不完全确定、但是确知各种决策后果以及各种后果出现概率情况下的决策。人们如何进行风险决策,一直是经济学和心理学非常关心的未解之谜。本文尝试从有限理性的角度,分析“齐当别”抉择模型是如何理解、解释人们的风险决策过程,并讨论了“最终的决策只能在单一维度上进行”这一决策规则在现实生活中的旨趣和寓意。     

结构设计优化技术及其在房屋结构设计中的应用

建筑结构的造价在建筑工程中占有较大的比例,结构设计优化技术的应用可以产生可观的经济效益。建筑设计部门和设计人员应严格遵守"经济、适用、合理"的设计原则,精心设计,应用现代化科技手段,选择合理的建筑结构设计方案,实现降低建筑工程造价并取得最大经济效益的目的。     

政府投资决策的多目标均衡模型应用研究——基于上海世博会投入产出效益的预测分析

在政府投资决策项目中,往往存在一些公益性、社会性的约束条件,如何在多元目标条件下求解一个符合多方约束条件的均衡解,文章以上海世博会投资决策资料为样板,运用多目标均衡模型优化求解。研究结果显示:上海世博会政府投资直接收益基本平衡,间接引致收益辐射长三角地区及全国,后续循环收益形成人流、物流、能流、信息流的和谐流动,运用循环经济中的"3R原则"是优化世博会投入产出收益的最佳途径。     

A contextual theory of organizational learning from failures and successes: A study of acquisition completion in the global newspaper industry, 1981–2008

This study develops and tests theory about the context‐specificity and outcome‐dependence of experiential learning in acquisition processes. First, we investigate whether learning from experience gained in different acquisition contexts is limited to influencing subsequent outcomes of same‐context transactions. Second, we analyze whether learning patterns in response to prior successes and failures differ across acquisition contexts, depending on two properties of these contexts—the degree of structural variance and the level of stimulation of deliberate learning. Learning is assessed with respect to an underexplored organizational goal variable in acquisitions: completion of a publicly announced transaction. An analysis of 4,973 acquisition attempts in the newspaper industry in 1981–2008 largely supports our theory. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

论工伤康复服务体系的构建与完善——基于广东省国家级工伤康复基地建设的研究

工伤康复是一个十分复杂的系统,主要包括家庭康复、社区康复、心理康复、职业康复和社会康复等众多子系统。随着国家级工伤康复基地在广东省的建设与投入使用,如何以广大工伤职工的根本利益为出发点,以《工伤保险条例》为政策依据,遵循以人为本的科学发展观,构建一个更加完善的工伤康复服务体系就成了摆在我们面前的重要课题。本文以广东省建设国家级工伤康复基地为例,就这一问题进行探讨。     

Cost efficiency and value driver analysis of insurers in an emerging economy

This study investigated cost inefficiencies and its relationship with value drivers of insurers in United Arab Emirates (UAE). The study revealed that there were 21–33% cost inefficiencies in these insurers under different model specifications of stochastic frontier and DEA; value drivers such as lower leverage risk, lower capital risk significantly improved cost efficiencies consistent with Basel II norms; ROE positively influenced cost efficiencies with further trade off between increased profit margin, decreased asset utilization and/or reduced equity multiplier by the insurer managements to achieve a target‐ROE; and the trend of cost efficiency was improving during 2000–2004. The study suggests that stock insurers could overcome their cost inefficiencies through adoption of efficient measures such as risk mapping of clients, risk prioritization besides ALM techniques. The study has direct implications for individual and institutional investors in making their portfolio investment decisions in insurance sector, policymakers, and regulators to closely monitor inefficient insurers consistent with Basel II norms. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimates of the steady state growth rates for some European countries

This paper estimates the steady state growth rates for the main European countries with an extended version of the Solow (1956) growth model. Total factor productivity is assumed a function of human capital, trade openness and investment ratio. We show that these factors, with some differences, have played an important role to improve the long run growth rates of Italy, Spain, France, UK, and Ireland. A few policies to improve the long-run growth rates for these countries are suggested.     

Error-correction based panel estimates of the demand for money of selected Asian countries with the extreme bounds analysis

This paper uses the extreme bounds analysis (EBA) of Leamer (1983, 1985) to analyze the robust determinants of the demand for money in a panel of 17 Asian countries for the period 1970 to 2009. These robust determinants are found to be unit root variables. Therefore, cointegration between these variables is tested with a recent time series panel method developed by Westerlund (2007). This method uses the error-correction formulation and has more power against the null of no cointegration. The results show that there is a well-defined long-run demand for money. Using the lagged error correction term from the estimated cointegrating equation, the short-run dynamic relationships are estimated. This paper, thus, suggests some useful guidelines to estimate other relationships with panel data.     

Burden,pattern and outcomes of road traffic injuries in a rural district of India

Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are a leading public health problem and the understanding of RTIs in rural India is limited. The present report documents the burden, pattern, characteristics and outcomes of RTIs in a rural district of India using combined data sources: police and hospital. RTIs contributed for 38% of fatal and 39% of non-fatal injuries with an annual mortality rate of 18.1/100,000 population/year. Young males were affected most and two-wheeler users and pedestrians were involved in 45% and 20% of fatal crashes, respectively. Nearly half (51%) of fatal RTIs occurred on national highways of the district; 46% died immediately at the site. Among those hospitalised, 20% were under the influence of alcohol while use of helmets and seat belts was <5%. Trauma care was deficient in the district leading to greater number of referrals. Road safety should be given high importance in rural India with a focus on safe roads, safe vehicles and safe people along with trauma care.