Fundamentals versus external shocks: Brazil's growing exposure to currency crises

While financial globalization does not lack theoretical economic merit, the more far-reaching practical consequences of this phenomenon are often not fully appreciated from the vantage point of North America or the European Union. In particular, globalization can make it more difficult for emerging economies to achieve macroeconomic stabilization. This is especially true if the countries in question have chosen the vehicle of pegged exchange rates as an important element of domestic anti-inflation policy. The chief macroeconomic difficulties for emerging economies in a world of volatile capital flows can include a loss of monetary control, a real appreciation of the domestic currency, and a worsening of economic fundamentals leading to damaging currency crises. This paper concentrates on the recent experience of Brazil as illustrative of the abject plight faced by many developing countries attempting to secure economic stabilization against the background of the present globalized international economy.This paper has benefitted from discussion with participants of the Forty-Sixth International Atlantic Economic Conference, Boston, MA, October 8–11, 1998.     

Evaluating social welfare and redistributive effects of Spanish personal income tax reform

Spain has recently concluded a process of wide-ranging reform of its personal income tax (IRPF), in force since 1992. The new IRPF is applicable from 1999 onward. The aim of this article is to analyse the implications of this tax reform for the distribution of personal income, and additionally to provide a comparative evaluation in terms of social welfare of both taxes. Empirical analysis is performed by a simulation exercise, employing the microdata contained in the Institute of Fiscal Studies’?IRPF Panel of Taxpayers. The analysis shows that the new IRPF induces a redistributive effect slightly lower than the old IRPF. The greater redistributive potential of the progressive structure of the new tax proves to be insufficient to compensate for the contrary effect caused by reduction in the level of tax liability. However, this new tax unambigously permits, in an inequality-adverse society, a higher level of social welfare than that attained by the old tax.     

Forecasting UK consumer price inflation using inflation forecasts

The inflation rate is a key economic indicator for which forecasters are constantly seeking to improve the accuracy of predictions, so as to enable better macroeconomic decision making. Presented in this paper is a novel approach which seeks to exploit auxiliary information contained within inflation forecasts for developing a new and improved forecast for inflation by modeling with Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis (MSSA). Unlike other forecast combination techniques, the key feature of the proposed approach is its use of forecasts, i.e. data into the future, within the modeling process and extracting auxiliary information for generating a new and improved forecast. We consider real data on consumer price inflation in UK, obtained via the Office for National Statistics. A variety of parametric and nonparametric models are then used to generate univariate forecasts of inflation. Thereafter, the best univariate forecast is considered as auxiliary information within the MSSA model alongside historical data for UK consumer price inflation, and a new multivariate forecast is generated. We find compelling evidence which shows the benefits of the proposed approach at generating more accurate medium to long term inflation forecasts for UK in relation to the competing models. Finally, through the discussion, we also consider Google Trends forecasts for inflation within the proposed framework.     

Patterns of care and burden of chronic idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura in Brazil

Aims: Although several therapeutic options are available for chronic immune thrombocytopenic purpura (cITP), little is known about the treatment of cITP in Brazil.

Materials and methods: A multi-center, retrospective chart review, observational study was designed to describe the treatment patterns, clinical burden, resources use, and associated costs for adult patients diagnosed with cITP and treated in public and private institutions in Brazil. Patient charts were screened in reverse chronological order based on their last visit post January 1, 2012. (All costs were calculated using 1.00 USD?=?3.9571 BRL, from February 2016.)

Results: Of 340 patient charts screened, 50 patients were eligible for inclusion in the study. Single-drug therapy (prednisone, dexamethasone, or dapsone) was the most commonly used treatment, followed by combination therapies (azathioprine?+?prednisone, azathioprine?+?prednisone?+?danazol, and prednisone?+?dapsone). Splenectomy was performed in 22% of patients after at least first-line treatment. Platelet count and number of bleeding episodes at diagnosis were 31,561.1/mm³ (SD?=?±26,396.1) and 40 episodes, respectively; in first-line, 92,631.1/mm³ (SD?=?±79,955.3) and 19 episodes, respectively; in second-line, 96,950.0/mm³ (SD?=?±76,476.4) and 17 episodes, respectively. Private system patients had a higher median cost compared to public system patients (USD 17.49/month, range?=?0–2,020.77 vs USD 9.51/month, range?=?0–192.64, respectively).

Limitations: This study does not allow conclusions for causal explanations due to the cohort study design, and treatment patterns represent only the practices of physicians who have agreed to participate in the study.

Conclusions: The data indicate that available therapeutic strategies for second- and third-line therapies appear to be limited.     

Rituals of cruise consumption and the 'new' middle class: desiring and 'devouring' maritime cruises

The consumption of maritime cruises is one of the most striking facets of the phenomenon of a new middle class emergence in Brazil. This study investigates the use of maritime cruises by emerging middle-class consumers to enact their new social status. Specifically, the research looks at ritualistic behaviour performed by consumers before, during, and after a cruise. The research uses a multi-method design characterised by a combination of ethnography and group discussions. The study contributes to enlarge McCracken’s typology of consumption rituals, showing how emerging consumers use the cruise as a rite of passage, during which they perform rituals of preparation, production, possession, and divestment. It also sheds light on specific rituals performed by consumers in order to transfer meanings from the cruise to their own selves. Finally, the findings suggest that consumption rituals in the context of social ascent may not have the transformative power of traditional rites.     

The development of new higher education courses

The main objective of this study was to present a proposal for a model explaining the construction of a new higher education course to be offered to the market. Having quite a limited theoretical basis and with few investigations dealing with innovation in educational services, a case study was made to help in construction of the model. The case study, supported by studies found and adaptation of innovation in services to the educational sector, made construction of the model possible, and this is divided in three stages: antecedents, development, and implementation of the new higher education course. The proposed model can be useful for managers of higher education institutes when they decide to put new courses on the market. As for the academic field, the study presented attempts to clarify the phenomenon, as well as showing the need for further research into the subject.     

Networks,firms, and trade

Fixed costs associated with learning about demand and setting up distribution networks are expected to be lower when there are more potential contacts in the destination market, suggesting a greater probability of market entry and larger export revenues. We match historically-determined emigration stocks with detailed firm-level data from Portugal to examine the effect of migrant networks on these export outcomes. We find that larger stocks of emigrants in a given destination increase export participation and intensity. In addition, we show that the former of these effects tends to be more pronounced among firms that are more likely to have close ties with the emigrants. These results are consistent with a multiple-destination version of the Melitz (2003) model featuring market-specific entry costs and idiosyncratic firm-destination demand shocks.