Extreme observations and diversification in Latin American emerging equity markets

In this paper, we focus on the tails of the unconditional distribution of Latin American emerging markets stock returns. We explore their implications for portfolio diversification according to the safety first principle, first proposed by Roy [Econometrica (1952) 20, 431]. We find that the Latin American emerging markets have significantly fatter tails than industrial markets, especially, the lower tail of the distribution. We consider the implication of the safety first principle for a US investor who creates a diversified portfolio using Latin American stock markets. We find that a US investor gains by adding Latin American equity markets to her purely domestic portfolio. For different parameter specifications, we find a more realistic asset allocation than the one suggested by the literature based on the traditional mean-variance framework.     

Emerging Technologies and Ethics: A Race-to-the-Bottom or the Top?

Does national success with an emerging technology require ethical sacrifices? This question is considered through the simultaneous consideration of ethics, investment, and outcomes in the nine jurisdictions that are making the largest investments in nanotechnologies—an important emerging technology. It is found that while ethical environment has no notable effect on pure and applied research, a more positive ethical environment is associated with measures associated with invention and commercialization. In summary, a race-to-the-top supports invention and commercialization of emerging technologies. A critical finding as it suggests that issues such as corruption and regulation could be critical in limiting the extraction of social and economic benefit from emerging technologies (like nanotechnologies).     

Bridging the innovation divide: The Brazilian experience

The purpose of this article is to discuss the Brazilian innovation environment. It addresses the challenges, promises, bottlenecks, and opportunities by examining the country's quest to bridge the innovation divide. In addition, it applies the main dimensions of the “innovation diamond model” to assess how the country is faring in its journey toward competitiveness. The article analyzes Brazil's main innovation policies and agencies. Its companies and policymakers have recently understood that, without a dynamic and rich innovation environment, it will not be able to design long‐term economic development strategies and engage in long‐term sustainable growth. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Hidden Unemployment in Estonia: Experience from the Early Years of Transition (1989‐1996)

The aim of this article is to develop and deepen the discussion on this topic and analyse the methods of measuring hidden unemployment. This is important for giving an adequate overview of the situation of the labour market in Estonia and the scope of hidden unemployment and its development in the transition period. The following tasks are set to achieve this aim: to estimate different components of hidden unemployment in Estonia and to analyse the factors that influence this phenomenon in Estonia and thence form policy conclusions. In the analysis data from the Estonian Labour Force Survey (ELFS 97) carried out in 1997 are examined. Three logit models were calculated (for unemployed, underemployed and discouraged persons). The most important findings were that there are no general factors which could influence open and hidden unemployment at the same time, and that the factors influencing the components of hidden unemployment differ—underemployment is probably influenced more by economic factors and discouragement more by psychological factors.     

An empirical assessment of the Feltham-Ohlson models considering the sign of abnormal earnings

This paper provides an empirical assessment of the Feltham-Ohlson models, distinguishing between firms with positive and negative abnormal earnings. Abnormal earnings persistence and conservatism parameters differ for these two groups; this implies different earnings prediction models and valuation functions for both profit-making and loss-making firms. The analysis refers to the period 1991-1999 and uses a sample of Spanish firms quoted on the Madrid S.E. The results suggest that our contextual approach is more useful than the non-contextual one to predict future abnormal earnings and explain current prices. Although the Ohlson (1995) model is accurate in forecasting future abnormal earnings and stock prices, the results improve when firms with negative abnormal earnings are valued using a temporary model and firms with positive abnormal earnings using a more permanent one. The Feltham and Ohlson (1995) model generates the lowest forecast errors in the prediction of positive abnormal earnings, but it produces the least accurate results in forecasting prices.     

Brazil and Mexico—Partners in sowing a free trade area of the Americas

The second half of 2000 brought renewed interest to the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas (FTAA). This hemispheric economic integration initiative presents numerous opportunities and challenges for each of the 34 countries involved in unifying markets across the Americas. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and Mercosur, the region's two largest trading blocs, play a vital role in any attempt to integrate Latin American markets. Integration under Mercosur has strengthened the position of member countries—especially Brazil, which is a choice location for foreign direct investment and has realized a significant growth in extra‐Mercosur trade. The newly elected Mexican president, Vicente Fox, has demonstrated a strong desire to bring Mexico to the forefront of hemispheric trade negotiations and brings a new dynamic to integration of Latin American markets and to the FTAA initiative. This article elaborates on the role of the two largest Latin American economies and the United States in the creation and solidification of a hemispheric trading bloc in the Americas. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

A contingent grouping approach for stated preferences

This paper introduces the theoretical and statistical foundations of contingent grouping, a variant of attribute-based stated preference methods, and checks for its implementation difficulty. Respondents are asked to simply group a number of alternatives as better or worse than a baseline or the status quo situation. A Monte Carlo approach shows that it performs statistically better than contingent choice according to the MSE criterion, and worse than contingent ranking, while a case study suggests that contingent grouping is less difficult to answer than contingent ranking. Furthermore, contingent choice shows a greater consistency in preferences with contingent grouping than with contingent ranking.     

Brazil Post‐Lula: Challenges and Opportunities Facing the Brazilian Business Environment

The Brazilian economy indicates great potential for future economic growth. An increasing and affluent middle class, expanding exports, and foreign reserves are testimonies of Brazil's recent accomplishments. The country, however, still faces a number of challenges that may compromise its sustainable long‐term economic goals and objectives. This article focuses on the Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva government's economic performance. The article's main findings show increasing bottlenecks being created as a result of the Lula government's eight years of low economic growth rates, which have penalized the country's competitiveness. The newly elected president, Dilma Rousseff, will inherit a substantial investment deficit in the areas of infrastructure, education, health care, research and development (R&D), and innovation, as well as Brazil's worst public debt/gross domestic product (GDP) ratio in the past 100 years. These conditions will prevent Brazil from growing and developing at faster rates. This article also elaborates on Dilma Rousseff's most recent statements and discusses likely future paths for the Brazilian economy. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Case study: TV globo– the Brazilian media giant

Brazilian multinational corporations are operating in several markets around the globe. The export of technology is an important development toward diversification of exports and gains in global competitiveness. This article shows that a Brazilian multinational, TV Globo, has engaged in the exportation of indigenous technology in an area where the level of sophistication is relatively high and traditionally controlled by multinationals from developed countries.     

Letter From the Editor

The use of transform techniques can greatly enhance The task of modeling cash flows. Considerable work has been done since Crubbatrom's on the application of transform technique to cash-flow analysis. However, little attention is given to transform techniques by the engineering economics community at large, as evidenced by the lack of ita coverage In engineering economy textbooks. This paper represents the continual effort of the authors to suggest the use of transform techniques for engineering economy problems. A loan problem is formulated using the traditional method, the Zeta-transform method, and a difference equation approach using matrix methods. Simplified results are obtained using closed-form solutions from both the transform and difference equation methods. The loan problem is extended to an equipment financing situation, which is formulated using the Zeta-transform method and the traditional method as well. An illustrative example is included.