Asymmetric price adjustment in the small

Analyses of a large retail scanner price data set reveal a new and surprising regularity - small price increases occur more frequently than small price decreases for price changes of up to 10¢. That is, we find asymmetric price adjustment “in the small.” Furthermore, it turns out that inflation offers only a partial explanation for the finding. Indeed, substantial proportion of the asymmetry remains unexplained, even after accounting for the inflation. For example, the asymmetry holds also after excluding periods of inflation from the data, and even for products whose price had not increased. The findings hold for different aggregate and disaggregate measures of inflation and also after allowing for lagged price adjustments.     

Search and Wholesale Price Discrimination

Firms often choose not to post prices in wholesale markets, and buyers must incur costs to discover prices. Inspired by evidence of customized pricing (e.g., some customers pay up to 70% more than others) and search costs, I estimate a search model to study how personalized pricing impacts efficiency in a wholesale market. I find that price discrimination decreases total surplus by 11.6% and increases the sellers' profits by up to 52.1%. These effects are partially explained by price discrimination softening competition through a decrease in search incentives, illustrating how price discrimination may magnify the efficiency costs of search frictions.     

Staged investments in entrepreneurial financing

Venture capitalists deliver investments to entrepreneurs in stages. This paper shows staged financing is efficient. Staging lets investors abandon ventures with low early returns, and thus sorts good projects from bad. The primary implication from staging is that it is efficient to invest more in later rounds. The model yields a number of predictions on how the ratio of early to late round financing varies with uncertainty, the outside options of both parties, the value of the venture, the costs of investment, and project difficulty. We test these predictions against data on venture capital financings and find significant empirical support for the theory.     

Liquidity commonality in commodities

We examine liquidity commonality in commodity futures markets. Using data from 16 agricultural, energy, industrial metal, precious metal, and livestock commodities, we show there is a strong systematic liquidity factor in commodities. Liquidity commonality was present in 1997–2003 when commodity prices were relatively stable and during the recent boom. There is some support for both “supply-side” and “demand-side” explanations for this commonality. We find no evidence of a consistent link between stock and commodity liquidity in general. Energy commodities appear to provide a better hedge against equity market liquidity risk than the other commodity families.     

ETF arbitrage: Intraday evidence

We use two extremely liquid S&P 500 ETFs to analyze the prevailing trading conditions when mispricing allowing arbitrage opportunities is created. While these ETFs are not perfect substitutes, our correlation and error correction results suggest investors view them as close substitutes. Spreads increase just before arbitrage opportunities, consistent with a decrease in liquidity. Order imbalance increases as markets become more one-sided and spread changes become more volatile which suggests an increase in liquidity risk. The price deviations are followed by a tendency to quickly correct back towards parity.     

Variable reduction,sample selection bias and bank retail credit scoring

This paper investigates the effect of including the customer loan approval process to the estimation of loan performance and explores the influence of sample selection bias in predicting the probability of default. The bootstrap variable reduction technique is applied to reduce the variable dimension for a large data-set drawn from a major UK retail bank. The results show a statistically significant correlation between the loan approval and performance processes. We further demonstrate an economically significant improvement in forecasting performance when taking into account sample selection bias. We conclude that financial institutions can obtain benefits by correcting for sample selection bias in their credit scoring models.     

A cross-country comparison of the demand for labour in Europe

A Cross-Country Comparison of the Demand for Labour in Europe.-This paper investigates structural differences in the demand for labour in France, Germany, and the UK. It finds substantial differences in the sensitivity of the demand for labour to international product demand and factor prices in all three countries. In particular, it reacts to domestic factor prices in Germany but international cost competitiveness in France and the UK; it depends upon European-wide product demand in France and Germany and a wider measure of product demand in the UK. The authors attribute these differences to product market conditions and institutional factors rather than to differences in the production technology.     

An experimental investigation of soft price caps in uniform price auction markets for wholesale electricity

This paper presents the results from an auction experiment using industry professionals and student participants who compete in a simulated wholesale market for electricity. Motivated by the intervention by FERC in response to the “meltdown” of the California spot market, we investigate the effect of including a “soft” price cap in a uniform price auction as a means of mitigating high prices. When prices are driven above the soft cap, offer curves become flat, in contrast to the hockey stick shape observed in a typical uniform price auction for electricity. This flat offer curve leads to market prices that are relatively insensitive to both generation costs and demand reductions.      

Wage Determination Regimes and Pay Inequality: A comparative study of Latin American countries

The relationship between the degree of centralization of wage setting and labour market outcomes, generally discussed with reference to advanced OECD countries, is explored in this paper through the comparative analysis of eight Latin American countries, focusing on the effects of centralization on wage inequality. It is argued that the greater the decentralization of wage setting, the larger will be wage dispersion. The article starts with the presentation of the analytical model, and continues with the empirical study. This is divided into two parts. In the first, a number of institutional factors that contribute to define 'wage determination regimes' (collective bargaining structures; state intervention in wage setting; and union rights that determine union strength) are discussed, stressing the specific traits of centralization within Latin America, and the selected countries are scored in terms of those factors. In the second, the magnitude of wage dispersion across manufacturing industries is examined, and the resulting ranking of countries is contrasted with their ranking in terms of the institutional factors. It is concluded that, with some caveats, the degrees of centralization of bargaining structures and of wage inequality appear to be inversely associated, reproducing in the Latin American region the pattern found in OECD countries.