Economic Impacts of Inbound Tourism under Different Assumptions Regarding the Macroeconomy

On what is taken to be the 'Standard View', increased tourism expenditure from inbound markets has direct, indirect and induced effects on a host destination, leading to increased production, income and employment. Strong links between tourism and other sectors of business reduce import leakages from tourism expenditure thereby enhancing the multiplier effects of the injected expenditure on domestic output, value added and employment. The usual technique for analysing these effects is input-output analysis. This paper argues that economy-wide effects must be taken into account in determining the impacts of increased tourism expenditure on a destination, and that the 'Standard View' is superficial and very often misleading. An expanding tourism industry tends to 'crowd out' other sectors of economic activity, reducing the demand for traditional exports and import competing industries. The extent of these 'crowding out' effects depends, in turn, on the workings of labour markets, changes in prices and the real exchange rate, and the macroeconomic policy context. It is argued that these mechanisms can only properly be taken into account using Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models rather than input-output modelling. The paper then looks at applications of CGE modelling to tourism growth in both nations and regions, classifying the various studies according to assumptions made about labour markets and government policies. The discussion has relevance for estimating the economic contribution of tourism in all destinations. The paper concludes with some observations regarding the use of CGE modelling in tourism contexts internationally and issues for further research.     

Bound for entrepreneurship? A career-theoretical perspective on entrepreneurial intentions

International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal - Research on entrepreneurial intentions, as an important step in the decision to undertake an entrepreneurial career, tends to position career...     

Public Knowledge and Financial Regulation: Two Post Crisis Periods

Abstract:

Since at least the days of Adam Smith there has been the recognition of essentially two forms of capitalism: in their theoretical extremes, one in which private companies determine the conditions of the social provisioning of credit and money, and one in which the State representing the general interest does. As we argue, the zeitgeist of the 1930s was a high water mark in the popular understanding of money and banking and its relationship with society. In contrast, today the general population is woefully ignorant on these points. As we argue, the relationship between financial governance and those governed hinges on the knowledge of the latter. Today’s public discourse reveals a widespread ignorance over financial matters that must accompany a likewise extreme moment of private control over nations’ money and credit. As we argue, the first steps towards a capitalism at the service of humanity and under public control, the first priority is publicly diffused knowledge.     

棉花市场近期展望

今年6月27日至29日,由中国棉花协会、农业部农村经济研究中心、全国棉花交易市场共同主办的"2007’中国国际棉花会议"在乌鲁木齐召开,与会政府官员、联合国粮农组织官员,以及专家、学者就"入世五年的中国棉业与全球未来市场"主题进行了热烈讨论。现将部分官员、专家、学者的发言摘要刊登如下:     

The impact of rent seeking activity on U.S. preferential trade and World debt

Zusammenfassung Der Einflu\ von “rent seeking“-Aktivit?ten auf den Pr?ferenzhandel der USA und die Verschuldung in der Welt. - Der Verfasser untersucht die Wirkung der US-Handelspr?ferenzen für Entwicklungsl?nder auf die amerikanischen Einfuhren aus den gr?\ten Schuldnerl?ndern in den Jahren {dy1985} und 1986. Die empirischen Befunde für Argentinien, Brasilien, Indonesien, Korea, Mexiko, die Philippinen und Venezuela zeigen unbedeutende und/ oder kontraproduktive Wirkungen des revidierten Allgemeinen Pr?ferenzsystems auf die US-Importe aus diesen hochverschuldeten Entwicklungsl?ndern.

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Resumen El impacto de la actividad de “rent seeking” sobre el comercio preferencial de los EE.UU. y la deuda externa. - El autor analiza el impacto de las preferencias comerciales ofrecidas por los EE.UU. a los países en desarrollo, el Sistema Generalizado de Preferencias (GSP), sobre las importaciones estadounidenses de manufacturas de países altamente endeudados en {dy1985} y 1986. La evidencia empirica para Argentina, Brasil, Indonesia, Corea del Sur, México, Filipinas y Venezuela indica que los efectos del GSP revisado sobre las importaciones estadounidenses de esos países han sido insignificantes y/o contraproductivos.

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Résumé L’impact de l’activité de ?rent seeking? au commerce préférentiel des Etats-Unis et l’endettement des pays du monde. - L’auteur analyse les effets des préférences commerciales des Etats-Unis qui sont disponibles aux PVD - le système de préférences généralisées (SPG) - aux importations manufacturées américaines qui proviennent des nations avec l’endettement la plus grande en {dy1985} et 1986. L’évidence pour l’Argentine, le Brésil, l’Indonésie, la Corée, le Mexique, les Philippines et le Venezuela indiquent des effets négligeables et/ou improductifs du SPG révisé en ce qui concerne les importations américaines de ces pays.

     

Monetary equilibrium in an overlapping generations model with productive capital

Summary We study perfect foresight competitive equilibrium in an overlapping generations model with productive capital and a fixed nominal stock of money. We obtain almost-complete characterizations of (a) the existence of a monetary equilibrium from an arbitrary initial capital stock, and (b) the existence of anefficient monetary equilibrium from an arbitrary initial capital stock. When the initial capital stock is no larger than the golden rule stock, the necessary and sufficient condition for both (a) and (b) is the dynamic inefficiency (in the sense of Malinvaud) of the autarkic (or nonmonetary) equilibrium from the same initial stock. However, this condition, though necessary, isnot sufficient for the existence of a monetary equilibrium when the initial stock exceeds the golden rule stock (and still more conditions are needed for anefficient monetary equilibrium to exist). We provide characterizations for these cases, and as corollaries obtain examples in which (a) the nonmonetary equilibrium is inefficient but no monetary equilibrium exists, and (b) monetary equilibria exist but no efficient monetary equilibrium does.We are grateful to a co-editor and an anonymous referee for comments that greatly improved the exposition in the paper.     

Planting flexibility: Implications for agricultural sustainability

There is a general belief that federal commodity programs restrict adoption of more sustainable production systems. In the 1990 farm legislation, Congress introduced limited planting flexibility to address these concerns and to reduce federal farm program costs. This program estimates the impact of planting flexibility on selected agricultural sustainability indicators and its policy implications. Results show that planting flexibility is a necessary but not sufficient condition for implementing more sustainable production systems. Other factors such as the availability of economically viable alternatives, macroeconomic conditions, and local resource and environmental concerns need to be considered. Policy reforms can help in achieving economic and environmental gains only in locations with economically viable alternatives. In other cases, increased research and development of new systems are needed to achieve desired results.