Profiting from government stakes in a command economy: Evidence from Chinese asset sales

We examine the market response to an unexpected announcement of the sale of government-owned shares in China. In contrast to earlier work, we find a negative effect of government ownership on returns at the announcement date and a symmetric positive effect from the policy's cancellation. We suggest that this results from the absence of a Chinese political transition to accompany economic reforms, so that the benefits of political ties outweigh the efficiency costs of government shareholdings. Companies managed by former government officials have positive abnormal returns, suggesting that personal ties can substitute for government ownership as a source of connections.     

The Effects of Ambiguous Information on Initial and Subsequent IPO Returns

Newly public companies must disclose significant risk factors in the offering prospectus. These disclosures are examples of “soft” or ambiguous information. Ambiguity models predict that investors will alter their portfolio weights and react to subsequent signals about such information. We test for these effects in a sample of 1,398 initial public offerings (IPOs) using word count ratios between soft and hard information as measures of ambiguity. We find a significant relationship between the soft information on risk and both initial and ex post measures of returns. These results support the view that soft information embeds ambiguity and that it influences investors’ portfolio choices.     

An empirical study of voluntary transfer pricing disclosures in China

This paper empirically investigates the factors that affect the management’s voluntary disclosures of the transfer pricing details of related-party transactions. Using Chinese data from 2004 and 2005, we hypothesize and find that firms that make voluntary disclosures of the pricing methods of related-party transactions are negatively associated with (i) a higher level of earnings management (as captured by abnormal related-party transactions) and (ii) its underlying incentives (as captured by the management’s performance-linked bonuses and the firm’s incentives to achieve earnings targets); further, they are positively associated with (i) a higher percentage of independent directors and (ii) a higher percentage of government ownership. Overall, our findings suggest that earnings management and its incentives, board composition, and ownership structure significantly influence the voluntary disclosure decisions of managers.     

Taxation of shareholder capital gains and the choice of payment method in takeovers

From December 1999, shareholders who disposed of shares in Australian takeovers in exchange for scrip could elect to defer capital gains taxation until the disposal of the shares received. We investigate payment method choice by acquiring firms before and after this regulatory change to assess whether target shareholder capital gains tax liabilities became an important factor considered in choosing the form of payment. The results show that, subsequent to the regulatory change, there is a significantly higher probability that equity will be offered as consideration where target shareholder capital gains are greater. This finding confirms the importance of shareholder level taxation in explaining corporate acquisition structure and adds to previous European and US evidence on factors associated with payment method choice in takeovers.     

Understanding the Welfare Implications of Preferential Trade Agreements

This paper examines various implications of preferential trade agreements, namely customs unions and free trade areas, in the context of a multicountry general equilibrium model. The model is calibrated to represent countries with symmetric endowments, and aggregate and disaggregate welfare change measures are used to quantify the welfare effects of preferential trade agreements. It is found that free trade areas are better than customs unions on welfare grounds for the world as a whole. Welfare decompositions suggest that a significant fraction of the welfare changes is explained by the volume-of-trade effect for both types of preferential trade agreements.     

Free trade: what are the terms-of-trade effects?

Changes in trade policy affect a nation’s economic welfare through terms-of-trade and volume-of-trade effects. A move to global free trade would imply higher world economic welfare equal to the sum of all nations’ volume-of-trade, or efficiency, effects. Since the sum of the terms-of-trade effects across all nations is zero, terms-of-trade effects are contentious. Konishi, Kowalczyk and Sjöström (2003) have shown that if customs unions do not affect trade with non-member countries, immediate global free could be achieved if free trade were proposed together with international sidepayments equal to the terms of trade effects. How large would these terms of trade effects, and hence transfers, be? This paper presents estimates from a simple computable general equilibrium model of a world economy of perfect competition. We show that, in some cases, terms-of-trade effects are small compared to efficiency gains, and transfers are not necessary for free trade. In other cases, terms-of-trade gains may account for more than 50% of a country’s gains from free trade and transfers could be large.     

TARIFF FORMATION IN A MULTIDIMENSIONAL VOTING MODEL*

The theory of endogenous trade policy formation argues that tariffs emerge from the political process. This occurs because of conflicting economic interests trying to redistribute income in their favor through the adoption of suitable trade policies. Mayer and Riezman (1987) questioned this view arguing that if individuals differ only in factor ownership they would always prefer some tax/subsidy policy to tariffs. Here we allow individuals to differ not only with respect to factor ownership, but also with respect to consumption preferences and income tax treatment. We show that tariffs might be the social decision even though nobody's individual preferences suggest tariffs as the best choice.     

Strategic Similarity and Emergent Conventions: Evidence from Similar Stag Hunt Games

This paper reports evidence on the origin of convention in laboratory cohorts confronting similar but not identical strategic situations repeatedly. The experiment preserves the action space of the game, while randomly perturbing the payoffs and scrambling the action labels in an effort to blunt the salience of retrospective selection principles. Hence, the similarity between stage games is reduced to certain strategic details, like efficiency, security, and risk dominance. Nevertheless, we do observe conventions emerging in half of the laboratory cohorts. When a convention emerges subjects's behavior conforms to the selection principles of efficiency rather than security or risk dominance. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C72, C78, C92, D83.     

Technological Scanning by Small Canadian Manufacturers

Given that in many industries new production and information technologies have fundamentally changed the way in which firms must operate and compete, the technological aspect of environmental scanning has become a critical success factor for many small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises. As little is presently known about how technological scanning manifests itself in these organizations and about what determines the nature and level of this activity, a survey study of 324 Canadian firms was done. Testing a research model resulted in identifying four interrelated dimensions of scanning activity, namely scanning objectives, type of information, information sources, and management practices. Key determinants of this activity were also identified, including the firms' strategy, environmental uncertainty, production technology, level of R&D, information networks, and the owner-manager's education level.     

Accounting Practices and the Market Valuation of Accounting Numbers: Evidence from Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand

This study examines the relation between stock prices and accounting earnings and book values in six Asian countries: Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand. The analysis is based on a residual earnings model that expresses the value of the firm in terms of book value and residual income. The model holds for any clean surplus accounting system. However, for finite time horizons, biased accounting may affect model estimates. The six countries examined in this study differ in faithfulness to clean surplus accounting as well as bias (conservatism). The study addresses two questions. First, are there systematic differences across countries in the value relevance of accounting, and are these differences related to accounting differences? Second, are there systematic differences in the incremental and relative information content of book value per share (BVPS) and abnormal (residual) earnings per share (REPS) across the countries, and are such differences related to accounting differences? We find differences across the six countries in the explanatory power of BVPS and REPS for firm values. Explanatory power for Taiwan and Malaysia is relatively low while that for Korea and the Philippines is relatively high. These differences are generally consistent with differences in accounting practice; however, since Korean accounting practice is strongly influenced by tax law, we did not expect the high association for Korea. Second, with respect to the incremental and relative explanatory power of BVPS and REPS, we find BVPS to have high explanatory power in the Philippines and Korea but little in Taiwan. In all six countries REPS has less explanatory power than BVPS in most years. Again, the evidence may be interpreted as suggesting accounting practice affects valuation (with Korea again as the exception). Finally, we provide evidence on the sensitivity of the timing of comparisons of stock prices and accounting values. We find that comparing prices at year-end (even though annual accounting information has not been released at that time), in general, provides the highest correlation between market and accounting numbers.