Un metodo di valutazione di un portafoglio assicurativo vita

Si adatta il modello proposto da L. Peccati [5] ad una concreta realtà aziendale fornendo un'analisi della redditività delbusiness assicurativo sia rispetto alla sua evoluzione temporale che alla sua origine finanziaria. Al fine di mantenere l'approccio quanto più generale possibile si modellizza il portafoglio a partire dal singolo contratto.

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Summary A method for the evaluation of life insurance portfolio has been proposed by L. Peccati in [5]. We adapt the original model to a concrete company situation. We examine the profitability of an investment in a life insurance portfolio from the viewpoint of the shareholders. In the Insurance business premia inflows preceed claims outflows so that we can consider the insurance activity as a medium/long-term funding operation. Starting from a model of the typical insurance activity, we obtain a decomposition of the NPV, distinguishing the contributions of each source of financing (i.e. equity and technical reserves) and of each time period, both for the single contract and the whole portfolio.

     

Telecommunications and investment decisions in the Philippines

This article is a rejoinder to the article written by R.J. Saunders published in the December 1983 issue of Telecommunications Policy on investment decisions in telecommunications. The author, in this brief paper, attemps to discuss the decision-making process in telecommunications investments described by Saunders and as it relates to the practical experience of the Philippines and other developing countries in a similar situation. Attention is given to how the national telephone programme in the Philippines is being developed. Efforts have been exerted to identify the similarities and basic differences of the Philippines to other developing countries.     

Optimal auction design in two‐sided markets

A key feature of online markets for advertising (e.g., sponsored links) is that clicking rates depend on the searchers' expectations that the platform selects relevant advertisers. This article studies auction design by a platform that maximizes profits in the long run, where clicking rates are mechanism dependent. In line with the practice of the major search engines, the revenue‐maximizing mechanism is a scoring auction that combines the willingness to pay and the relevance to searchers of advertisers. By trading off rent extraction and clicking volume, this mechanism works as a cross‐subsidization device between searchers and advertisers.     

CONSTRUCTING OPTIMAL DENSITY FORECASTS FROM POINT FORECAST COMBINATIONS

Decision makers often observe point forecasts of the same variable computed, for instance, by commercial banks, IMF and the World Bank, but the econometric models used by such institutions are frequently unknown. This paper shows how to use the information available on point forecasts to compute optimal density forecasts. Our idea builds upon the combination of point forecasts under general loss functions and unknown forecast error distributions. We use real‐time data to forecast the density of US inflation. The results indicate that the proposed method materially improves the real‐time accuracy of density forecasts vis‐à‐vis those from the (unknown) individual econometric models. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Regional Productive Complementarity and Competitiveness

A positive international environment favors growth of the several economies in a given region, but it does not assure that the differences in the economic potential of the several countries are reduced in this process. Alternatively, the presence of productive complementarities might foster competitiveness and contribute to increasing the degree of homogeneity, even in situations of adverse terms of trade. This article reviews the experience of six sub-regional groups in Asia and Latin America in the last two decades. Latin America has recently benefitted from significant improvement in terms of trade and yet the economies in that region remain as different in their relative economic potential as they were in the beginning of the 1990s. In Asia, however, the negative impact of terms of trade has not blocked a quite fast pace of GDP growth; furthermore, productive complementarity has led to an increasing convergence of the several economies, with a sharp increase in their share of the international market. There are clear lessons from the Asian experience.     

The relative economic efficiency of urban water utilities in regional New South Wales and Victoria

In recent times the relative economic efficiency of urban water utilities has been neglected as policymakers sought to secure urban water supplies. This paper is an effort to measure the efficiency consequences of a number of recent urban water policy initiatives. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is employed in order to measure the relative technical efficiency of urban water utilities in regional New South Wales (NSW) and Victoria. We show that the almost universal policy of water restrictions is likely to reduce relative efficiency and the typically larger utilities located in Victoria are characterised by a higher degree of managerial efficiency. A number of implications for urban water policy are advanced.     

Testing for pre‐committed quantities of Australian meat demand

Pre‐committed consumption represents the portion of demand that is determined by non‐price and non‐income factors. This study uses quarterly data to estimate a Generalised Almost Ideal Demand System (GAIDS) to test for the existence of pre‐committed meat consumption in Australia. Two specifications are estimated to evaluate the impact of seasonal and time trend factors on pre‐committed demand. Evidence is found for the existence of pre‐committed chicken consumption when jointly estimated with seasonal and time trend factors. Results support improved demand modelling of Australian meat consumption using the GAIDS and provide insights into how Australian meat demand is affected by price, expenditures, pre‐committed consumption, seasonality, and trends.     

Espen Moe. Governance, Growth and Global Leadership: The Role of the State in Technological Progress, 1750-2000

There is a lot of literature on the relationship between technologicalchange, economic growth, and changing global leadership. Abramovitz(1989), on the side of economics, and Kindleberger (1996) andLandes (1969) as economic historians, showed how technologicalchange shapes economic, social, and global leadership, describingthe rise and fall of Venice, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom,and finally the United States as technological and politicalleaders in the world since the sixteenth century. In their view,the mechanism of this change was essentially     

A comparative study of airport connectivity in China,Europe and US: Which network provides the best service to passengers?

This paper investigates the connectivity of the airport networks in China, Europe and US. Our aim is to analyze which network is most beneficial to final passengers in terms of travel time and which of the network features lead to such a result. A time-dependent minimum path approach is employed to calculate the minimum travel time between each pair of airports in the three networks, inclusive of flight times and waiting times in intermediate airports. We evaluate each fastest indirect connection in terms of waiting times and routing factors to consider the effect of the hubs’ coordination and locations. The Chinese network provides the quickest travels for passengers, but this performance is explained by a small number of airports per inhabitant. The US network is the most coordinated when considering indirect connections. The EU network provides the most homogeneous level of service when comparing airports of different sizes.