A panel data approach to economic forecasting: The bias-corrected average forecast

In this paper, we propose a novel approach to econometric forecasting of stationary and ergodic time series within a panel-data framework. Our key element is to employ the (feasible) bias-corrected average forecast. Using panel-data sequential asymptotics we show that it is potentially superior to other techniques in several contexts. In particular, it is asymptotically equivalent to the conditional expectation, i.e., has an optimal limiting mean-squared error. We also develop a zero-mean test for the average bias and discuss the forecast-combination puzzle in small and large samples. Monte-Carlo simulations are conducted to evaluate the performance of the feasible bias-corrected average forecast in finite samples. An empirical exercise, based upon data from a well known survey is also presented. Overall, these results show promise for the feasible bias-corrected average forecast.     

Local persistence and the PPP hypothesis

This paper examines the statistical properties of the bilateral real exchange rates of the U.S. vs. France, Germany, and the U.K. during the Post-Bretton-Woods period, and draws implications on the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis. Contrary to traditional studies that consider only unit root and stationary processes to describe the real exchange rate behavior, this paper considers an in-between process, the locally persistent process. The empirical results demonstrate the following two findings: (1) Locally persistent processes describe the real exchange rate movements better than unit root and stationary processes, which implies that PPP reversion occurs and PPP holds in the long-run. (2) The confidence intervals for half-life deviations from PPP under local persistence tend to be narrower than those obtained by assuming the ADF and the local-to-unity models.     

Medición y comprensión del comercio de tareas en el sector de los servicios

La revolución de las TIC ha generado un alto riesgo de deslocalización de las tareas más comercializables en el sector de los servicios. Se revisan aquí estudios que proponen indicadores de comerciabilidad de los servicios, exploran las implicaciones de su deslocalización y desarrollan modelos teóricos al respecto. Tanto el nivel de calificación requerido como la comerciabilidad podrían ser determinantes clave de los efectos sobre los salarios y el empleo. Sin embargo, la falta de definiciones consensuadas de comerciabilidad y de datos fiables sobre el comercio de servicios, junto con la dificultad de evaluar la competencia de las importaciones a niveles desagregados, obstaculizan el avance de los estudios empíricos y descubren áreas para futuras investigaciones.     

Negative network effects and asymmetric pure price equilibria

Portuguese Economic Journal - We show that in finite settings with identical firms and consumers, asymmetric pure price equilibria with positive profits exist. We consider a price competition...     

Combining equilibrium,resampling, and analyst’s views in portfolio optimization

This paper proposes the use of a portfolio optimization methodology which combines features of equilibrium models and investor’s views as in Black and Litterman (1992), and also deals with estimation risk as in Michaud (1998). In this way, our combined methodology is able to meet the needs of practitioners for stable and diversified portfolio allocations, while it is theoretically grounded on an equilibrium framework. We empirically test the methodology using a comprehensive sample of developed countries fixed income and equity indices, as well as sub-samples stratified by geographical region, time period, asset class and risk level. In general, our proposed combined methodology generates very competitive portfolios when compared to other methodologies, considering three evaluation dimensions: financial efficiency, diversification, and allocation stability. By generating financially efficient, stable, and diversified portfolio allocations, our methodology is suitable for long-term investors such as Central Banks and Sovereign Wealth Funds.     

De-hubbing of airports and their recovery patterns

The paper analyzes cases of de-hubbing in air transport between 1997 and 2009. It initially addresses the conditions to be met for airports to be identified as de-hubbing cases. Second, it examines what happens after de-hubbing by clustering the cases into homogenous groups that show that, on average, airports that experienced de-hubbing did not recover their original traffic within five years and that de-hubbing is likely to be irreversible. When hub carriers were replaced at least partially by low-cost carriers, airports on average recovered faster. De-hubbing adversely affects the number of destinations served less severely than the seats offered by carriers.     

Do entrepreneurs from institutionally distinct countries apply different decision logic when internationalizing their companies? A multiple-case analysis

Literature on entrepreneurs’ decision logic has either focused on effectuation or causation, lacking comparison and analysis of logics when founders come from different institutional environments. This paper presents an exploratory study examining the behaviors, beliefs, and decisions of entrepreneurs (all typical drivers for new market entries), considering those institutional differences. Research was based on the comparison of two case studies of young software companies, one from Brazil and one from Germany, each founded by two entrepreneurs with similar academic and professional backgrounds. Results indicate that apparently, business environment affects founders’ decision logics with much more strength than the institutional environment.     

Leblon Cachaça: A born global in a traditional industry

This case describes the trajectory of Leblon, a cachaça producer that since its inception regards the world as a market for its product. Founded by entrepreneurs in 2005, the firm's production process is divided between Brazil and France, and it serves several world markets besides the U.S. and Brazil. The company is a truly born global, and the most striking feature of the firm's strategy is super premium positioning. The case was developed based on interviews with the CEO and the head of operations, complemented by secondary information. The case is suitable for use in graduate courses that address issues relating to born globals, international entrepreneurship, and international marketing.     

The international strategy of state-owned firms: An organizational process and politics perspective

This paper focuses on European government-controlled enterprises (GCEs) which are normal commercial undertakings (e.g. Renault, ENI, British Leyland, Salzgitter) as opposed to public monopolies (e.g. electric or telephone companies). It asks why such companies do or do not go international and what is distinctive about their international strategy and why.     

The Influence of Auguste Walras on Léon Walras

A bstract . Auguste Walras' interest in and contribution to economic theory were prompted mainly by his quest for a valid theory of property. After a critical analysis of the current theories of value , he singled out scarcity as the only significant cause of value. He concluded that land was scarce in a very special sense and, hence, should belong not to single individuals but to society as a whole. This is not, however, incompatible with private ownership of non-land capital. His famous son. Léon Walras , not only adopted this theory but also proved the feasibility of a laissez-faire type of economy in which land is nationalized. His debt to his father is also evident in his analysis of general economic equilibrium in which he makes use of valuable economic ideas and tools devised or inspired by Auguste Walras.