The “flat tax(es)”: principles and experience

This paper reviews experience with the ‘flat taxes’ that have been adopted in many countries in recent years. It stresses that they differ fundamentally, and that empirical evidence on their effects is very limited. This precludes simple generalization, but several lessons emerge: there is no sign of Laffer-type behavioral responses generating revenue increases from the tax cut elements of these reforms; their impact on compliance is theoretically ambiguous, but there is evidence for Russia that compliance did improve; the distributional effects of the flat taxes are not unambiguously regressive, and in some cases, they may have increased progressivity (including through the impact on compliance); adoption of the flat tax has not resolved common challenges in taxing capital income; and it may have strengthened, not weakened, the automatic stabilizers. A key reason for adoption of the flat tax seems to have been to signal a fundamental shift toward a market-oriented policy regime. Looking forward, as the value of the signal diminishes and familiar political economy forces reassert themselves, the question is not so much whether more countries will adopt a flat tax as whether those that have will move away from it.      

Realism Versus Statistical Efficiency: A Note on Contingent Valuation with Follow-up Queries

This paper shows that we can improve the statistical efficiency of dichotomous choice contingent valuation surveys by asking a second open question (anchored open-ended approach) instead of the traditional double-bounded approach. The former approach is shown to be more efficient than conventional single and double-bounded approaches using a Monte Carlo experiment, even when we allow for strategic behavior from respondents such as protest votes and yea-saying behavior.

An Extension of the Structural Change Model to International Economic Relations

In this paper Pasinetti's model of structural economic dynamics (1981) is extended to consider international economic relations. Conditions for full employment, full expenditure of income and equilibrium of the trade balance are established for an open economy that requires capital goods to produce final commodities. Analytical results concerning the benefits from free trade and international learning are formally studied. In addition, static and dynamic aspects of the ‘principle of comparative cost advantage’ are analysed considering the determinants of the specialization level.     

Pair-copulas modeling in finance

This paper concerns itself with applications of pair-copulas in finance, and bridges the gap between theory and application. We provide a broad view of the problem of modeling multivariate financial log-returns using pair-copulas, gathering together for this purpose theoretical and computational results from the literature on canonical vines. From the practitioner’s viewpoint, the paper shows the advantages of modeling through pair-copulas and makes clear that it is possible to implement this methodology on a daily basis. All the necessary steps (model selection, estimation, validation, simulations, and applications) are discussed at a level easily understood by all data analysts.     

Modelling Foreign Real Estate Investment: The Spanish Case

Foreign real estate investment in Spain has grown considerably during the last decade, representing around 40% of total foreign direct investment inflows. This trend has exerted an important macroeconomic effect maintaining a long lasting housing bubble and contributing significantly to finance the rising current account deficit. Foreign real estate investment in Spain is mostly of a housing acquisition type and therefore the analysis of its determinants requires a specific approach. In this sense, neither a pure foreign direct investment nor a portfolio theoretical model might be useful. So we propose a modelling of foreign real estate investment for Spain from the point of view of a demand for tourism services and from a financial focus. Using time series data from 1990 to 2007 the hypothesis arising from our foreign real estate investment modelling reveals the consistency of this approach. There seem to be relevant determinants from the demand side and from the financial dimension. Indeed, Gross Domestic Product per capita, expected capital gains, travel costs, tourism agglomeration and housing prices are all relevant factors explaining Foreign real estate investment. We consider that this case study may also be applied to other countries sharing similar foreign real estate investment type flows.     

论西方的崛起:肯尼斯·彭慕兰的大分流研究

为什么在世界文明大国中,只有欧洲在19世纪取得了具有革命意义的转变.肯尼斯·彭慕兰的《大分流》对此做出了解释.他认为,至迟到1800年,中国的生活水准和生产水平与欧洲大致相当.英格兰之所以首先工业化是因为充足的煤炭和新大陆大量土地集约型资源的供应.本文认为彭慕兰的观点缺乏经验可信性.与潜在的和实际的欧洲内部贸易相比,由美洲进口为英格兰带来的"生态暴利"并不明显.而中国尽管在1500年后在中亚和西南亚获得了新的领土,带来了巨大的"生态暴利",但并没有获得任何工业突破.     

Optimal portfolio choices using financial leverage

This paper investigates the role of leverage in determining the investor's optimal asset allocation over multiperiod investment horizons. To do this, we allow investors to lever their financial position by borrowing from credit markets. GMM methods are used to estimate and test the optimal portfolio weights and individual's optimal choice of financial leverage. These optimal choices are assumed to be parametric functions of a set of state variables describing the evolution of the economy. The empirical application of this methodology to a portfolio of cash, bonds and stocks reveals that a) financial leverage limits the reaction of investors to changes in the investment opportunity set; b) individuals increase leverage during recessions and deleverage in expansionary periods; c) optimal portfolio weights and financial leverage are negatively related to the degree of investor's risk aversion and positively related to the investment horizon.     

A two‐sector neo‐Kaleckian model of growth and distribution: Investment allocation and evolutionary dynamics

This paper focuses on the two‐sector neo‐Kaleckian model of growth and distribution that was developed by Dutt (1990) and challenged by Park (1995). We develop a variant of this model, focusing on the supply‐side to solve the overdetermination problem that was raised by Park. Finally, we introduce evolutionary dynamics to model the investment flows between the capital and consumer goods sectors. In this setup, the sectoral profit rates and the size of capital stocks wield an essential role upon the entrepreneur’s decision on which sector to invest in. This model is perfectly determined and it generates a stable evolutionary equilibrium over the long term.     

Coffee exports and industrialization in Brazil

We investigate the dynamic relationship between coffee exports and machinery imports in Brazil from 1869 to 1939. Our tests reveal cointegration and bidirectional causality in the temporal sense. This evidence suggests that foreign exchange real revenues from coffee exports were important for the onset of industrialization, as machinery imports proxy for real investment demand. Capital growth, in turn, also helped to boost the country’s exports.