The impact of soil conservation and output diversification on farm income in Central American hillside farming

This article analyzes the determinants of farm income among hillside farmers participating in natural resource management projects in El Salvador and Honduras. The farm income function was evaluated using a system of equations in which income is determined simultaneously by the farmer's decision to adopt soil conservation technologies and by the level of diversification (number of agricultural activities) on the farm. The database used comes from surveys administered to 678 beneficiaries of these projects during 2002. The econometric results suggest that all the variables related directly to land use (i.e., output diversification, soil conservation practices and structures, and the adoption of forestry systems) have a positive and statistically significant association with farm income. Also, farmers who own land enjoy higher farm incomes than those who do not. The results indicate that when investing in natural resource management projects, governments and multilateral development agencies should pay close attention to output diversification, land tenure, and human capital formation as effective instruments in increasing farm income.     

Supermarkets, wholesalers, and tomato growers in Guatemala

The article shows the asset‐related determinants and the impacts of the participation of small farmers in supermarkets versus traditional market channels in Guatemala. Compared to farmers selling only to the traditional market channels, farmers selling to supermarket channels are larger (but are in the upper tier of the “small farmer” category), have more capital, and are much more specialized in commercial horticulture in general and in tomatoes in particular. While they have higher yields, they also have higher input use, including use of chemicals. In fact, they severely overuse pesticides and fungicides. Moreover, these greater input expenditures mean that their profit rates are roughly similar to those of farmers in the traditional market channel. Supermarket‐channel farmers prefer the more demanding wholesale‐supermarket channel because it offers lower risks and lower transaction costs to market, a variety of quality grades of tomatoes, all year long. In turn, the supermarkets, who do not buy direct but rather source from a few specialized‐dedicated wholesalers, rely on this year‐round supply, lower transaction costs, and consistency of quality.     

The Valuation of Hidden Assets in Foreign Transactions: Why “Dark Matter” Matters

This paper clarifies how the valuation of hidden assets— what we call “dark matter”—changes our assessment of the U.S. external imbalance. Dark matter assets are defined as the capitalized value of the return privilege obtained by U.S. assets. Because this return privilege has been steady over recent decades, it is likely to persist in the future or even to increase, as it becomes leveraged by an increasingly globalized world. Once this is included in future projections of U.S. current accounts, the U.S. external position looks much more balanced than depicted in official statistics. JEL Classification F21     

Gender analysis of entrepreneurial intentions as a function of economic development across three groups of countries

The aim of this paper is to analyze the gender differences in entrepreneurial intentions by studying a range of socioeconomic and psychosocial factors. Furthermore, we aim at analyzing these differences in three groups of countries depending on the stage of economic development of each country according to the Global Competitiveness Report. Using a logistic regression analysis and data from the 2008 APS (Adult Population Survey) database which is part of the Project GEM (Global Entrepreneurship Monitor), results show the existence of gender differences in entrepreneurial intentions. The model proposed in the study has decreasing explanatory power as the degree of economic development increases, and is also more conclusive for men than women. An important methodological innovation we implemented in the current study is the use of the variable gender as a dependent variable rather than a variable of a socio demographic nature.     

Systemic financial crises and the housing market cycle

Using quarterly data for a group of 20 industrialized countries and both continuous- and discrete-time duration models, we show that financial crisis recessions are associated with a two- to three-fold increase in the likelihood of the end of a housing boom. Additionally, recessions preceded by booms in mortgage credit are especially damaging, as their occurrence coincides with an increase in the duration of housing market slumps of almost 90%.     

Can the Consumption–Wealth Ratio Predict Housing Returns? Evidence from OECD Countries

We use a representative consumer model to analyze the relation between the transitory deviations of consumption from its common trend with aggregate wealth and labor income, cay, and the housing risk premium. The evidence based on data for 15 OECD countries shows that, if financial and housing assets are seen as complements, investors will temporarily allow consumption to rise when they expect a rise in future housing returns. By contrast, if housing assets are treated as substitutes for financial assets, consumption will be reduced.     

The Impact of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skills on Professional Salaries in An Emerging Economy,Chile

Professional salaries in Chile are here explained on the basis not only of traditional human capital variables but also of variables indicative of other cognitive and noncognitive skills. As might be expected, college entrance scores (SAT), our measure of advanced cognitive skills, are found to impact strongly and nonlinearly on salaries. More surprisingly, ranking in one's high school graduation class raises one's salary 10 years later by the equivalent of one year of additional experience, suggesting that ranking stands for a more permanent noncognitive skill such as effort or self‐discipline. As is typically found, women earn less than men, but, to our surprise, they also have lower asking salaries than men.     

Machine learning advances for time series forecasting

In this paper, we survey the most recent advances in supervised machine learning (ML) and high-dimensional models for time-series forecasting. We consider both linear and nonlinear alternatives. Among the linear methods, we pay special attention to penalized regressions and ensemble of models. The nonlinear methods considered in the paper include shallow and deep neural networks, in their feedforward and recurrent versions, and tree-based methods, such as random forests and boosted trees. We also consider ensemble and hybrid models by combining ingredients from different alternatives. Tests for superior predictive ability are briefly reviewed. Finally, we discuss application of ML in economics and finance and provide an illustration with high-frequency financial data.     

BLOCOS URBANISM: Capitalism and Modularity in the Making of Contemporary Luanda

In this article we portray and unpack the fabric of urban expansion in contemporary Luanda. In doing so, we examine interdependencies and complementarities between the organization of oil extraction off the coast of Angola, the emergence of particular modalities of modernist city planning for the expansion of its capital city, and the proliferation of cement blocks in the making of new urban forms throughout its burgeoning peripheries. By showing how urban development has unfolded through the interconnected realization of multiple kinds of systematizing blocks—namely oil blocks, city blocks and cement blocks—we analyse key material components in the production of new markets and urban spaces in the Angolan capital. By tracing forms of capitalism and modularity in the making of contemporary Luanda, we develop the concept of blocos urbanism to draw attention to modes of standardization and the production of legibility in contemporary processes of urbanization. Through this study, we aim to contribute to the conceptual apparatus for deciphering our global urban condition.     

Focus on cash transfer programs: assessing the eligibility of the Bolsa Família program in Brazil

Quality & Quantity - Income transfer programs are important public policies in fighting poverty and reducing inequality. However, such a strategy is often criticised as being ineffective, as...