Explaining The <Emphasis Type="Italic">Hump</Emphasis> In Life Cycle Consumption profiles

Summary  This paper documents life cycle (or age) profiles of (log) household income, durable and non-durable consumption for Dutch households after explicitly controlling for time (or business cycle) effects and birth cohort effects. We find that both measures of consumption as well as income is clearly hump shaped over the life cycle. Hence, real consumption per household seems to track income over the life cycle. This empirical regularity is hard to reconcile with basic specifications of the life cycle model. We further document life cycle profiles of demographic and labor supply variables. We argue that part, but not all, of the hump in consumption may be explained by household composition variables. Durable consumption per adult equivalent stays approximately flat until age 60 after which it drops dramatically. This phenomenon may be partly explained by a decrease in work related durable expenditures after retirement. Non-durable consumption per equivalent adult increases steadily until age 55 and stays approximately flat after that.      

Consumption Behavior,Annuity Income and Mortality Risk of Retirees

Previous empirical studies have found that individuals do not draw down their assets after retirement which is at odds with the predictions of a simple life cycle model without uncertainty. Hurd (Econometrica 57(4):779–813, 1989; Mortality risk and consumption by couples, 1999) explains such saving behavior of retired singles and couples by adding lifetime uncertainty to the simple life cycle model. We tested whether predictions about consumption during retirement of this extended life cycle model hold for a sample of older Americans. We used data from the Health and Retirement Study supplemented with data from the Consumption and Activities Mail Survey. In line with theory we found that, on average, total consumption is greater than their annuity income after retirement and that this difference increases with the level of initial wealth. For older singles but not for couples our results suggest that, as predicted by the extended theoretical model of Hurd, the on average negative consumption growth decreases with higher mortality rates.     

你的国家可能是下一个希腊

孕育了民主的古希腊或许让人欣然向往,但现在希腊的财政困境则让人敬而远之。目前,资本市场要希腊为其预算问题付出沉重代价。     

卫生技术评估：澳大利亚的反映

本文分为三部分。第一部分主要是描述性的,列出了在澳大利亚应用卫生技术评估（HTA）的主要机构。首先,讨论了医疗用品管理局（Therapeutic Goods Administration,TGA）对HTA的应用。     

An economic evaluation attached to a single-centre,parallel group,unmasked, randomized controlled trial of a 3-day intensive social cognitive treatment (can do treatment) in patients with relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis and low disability

Abstract

Aims: This trial-based economic evaluation (EE) assesses from a societal perspective the cost-effectiveness of an intensive 3-day cognitive theory-based intervention (CDT), compared to care-as-usual, in patients with relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) and low disability (Expanded Disability Status Scale [EDDS] score < 4.0).

Materials and methods: The trial of the EE was registered in the Dutch Trial Register: Trial NL5158 (NTR5298). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was expressed in cost on the Control sub-scale of the Multiple Sclerosis Self-Efficacy Scale (MSSES) and the incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) in the cost per Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALY) using the EQ-5D-5L. Bootstrap, sensitivity, and sub-group analyses were performed to determine the robustness of the findings.

Results: The two groups of 79 patients were similar in baseline characteristics. The base case ICER is situated in the northeast quadrant (€72 (40.74/€2,948)) due to a higher MSSES Control score and higher societal costs in the CDT group. The ICUR is situated in the northwest (inferior) quadrant due to losses in QALY and higher societal costs for the CDT group (?0.02/€2,948). Overall, bootstrap, sensitivity, and sub-group analyses confirm the base case findings. However, when the SF-6D is used as a study outcome, there is a high probability that the ICUR is situated in the northeast quadrant.

Limitations: The relative short follow-up time (6?months) and the unexpected increase in MSSES Control in the control group.

Conclusions: When using the EQ-5D-5L to calculate a QALY, CDT is not a cost-effective alternative in comparison to care as usual. However, when using self-efficacy or SF-6D as outcomes, there is a probability that CDT is cost-effective. Based on the current results, CDT for patients with RRMS clearly show its potential. However, an extended follow-up for the economic evaluation is warranted before a final decision on implementation can be made.     

Internet and Tourism—Part XXIV: PinpointTravel

This study examines the moderating impact of consumers' time styles on their emotional reactions and evaluations of waiting time in crowded and non-crowded environments. A quasi-experimental design was used to test our hypotheses. Our results indicate that waiting in a crowded environment results in negative emotions. In addition, people who scored high on economic time style reported significantly less satisfaction with their choice of airlines when they waited in crowded conditions. These results extend the literature on crowding and waiting time, and add to our understanding of consumer emotions in service environments.     

An Initial Investigation of Integrating Innovation Diffusion Models for Drawing First‐time Visitors

Prior studies in the existing tourism literature have frequently emphasized the relatively expensive costs for drawing first‐time visitors. These studies, however, have largely failed to explain how to draw first‐time visitors to a destination. In other words, little was known regarding what destinations should do to attract first‐time visitors in an effective way. To provide more insights, this research investigated the impact of three diffusion models on attracting first‐time visitors. These models included an external influence model for impact of mass media, an internal influence model for impact of interpersonal communications, and a mixed model for impacts of both mass media and interpersonal communications. Assessing the model impact in a macroapproach for first‐time visitors to Hong Kong, empirical findings indicated that the mixed influence model provided the highest explanatory quality, with word‐of‐mouth being a dominant factor.     

Measuring E-Service Quality for Online Travel Agencies

Online travel agencies face intense competition, and thus have a great need to evaluate the e-service quality of their websites to succeed or even just to survive. The present study explores the underlying dimensions used by online customers to evaluate the e-service quality of online travel agencies, as well as the relationship of these dimensions to customer satisfaction and the repurchase intention, using both qualitative and quantitative data collection techniques. Six underlying dimensions of e-service quality are identified from the results of factor analysis; namely, Website Functionality, Information Quality and Content, Fulfillment and Responsiveness, Safety and Security, Appearance and Presentation, and Customer Relationship. Furthermore, four dimensions—Website Functionality, Information Quality and Content, Safety and Security, and Customer Relationship—are found to significantly influence online customers' evaluation of overall satisfaction and their repurchase intention. The results of multiple regression analysis show Website Functionality to be the most powerful factor in predicting customer satisfaction and the repurchase intention. Implications of the study findings are discussed, and important guidelines for the development of online travel agencies are provided.     

The Methodological Progress of Tourism Demand Forecasting: A Review of Related Literature

Research on modeling the estimation and forecasting of tourism demand has evolved with increasing sophistication and improved quality. In this study, 155 research papers published between 1995 and 2009 were identified and were classified into three main groups according to the methods and techniques adopted—an econometric-based approach, time series techniques, and artificial intelligence (AI)-based methods. It appears that the more advanced methods such as cointegration, error correction model, time varying parameter model, and their combinations with systems of equations produce better results in terms of forecasting accuracy. We also discuss the implications and suggest future directions of tourism research techniques and methods.