A note on cross-impact analysis: a calculus for sequence-dependent events

As the example presented demonatrate, the analysis of cross-impactss amount a group of related events is somewhat more complex than perhaps heretofore imagined. Impacts of effects between such events very often carely depend on their temporal sequence. The event outcome space is accordingly multiplied considerably over the case where such dependency is ignored. The result is that high premium is placed on methods that seek to reduce analytical complexity without distorting essential event intrications.     

Falling through the cracks: International accounting rate reform at the ITU and WTO

Heightened attention to international accounting rates at the ITU and the WTO has led some observers to conclude that carriers soon will impose cost-based termination charges. This article concludes that while accounting rates have declined on some routes, many incumbent carriers can and will delay or thwart progress. The article examines the FCC's unilateral regulatory initiative as evidence of a growing schism between governments keen on immediate progress and those that fear a ‘free fall’ in accounting rates and a quick end to settlement surpluses. The article also considers technological innovations like call-back and Internet telephony with an eye toward assesssing whether and how widespread accounting rate reductions will occur.     

Ethical and Unethical Bargaining Tactics: An Empirical Study

Competitive negotiators frequently use tactics which others view as "unethical", in that these tactics either violate standards of truth telling or violate the perceived rules of negotiation. This paper sought to determine how business students viewed a number of marginally ethical negotiating tactics, and to determine the underlying factor structure of these tactics. The factor analysis of these tactics revealed five clear factors which were highly similar across the two samples, and which parallel (to a moderate degree) categories of tactics proposed by earlier theory. Data from one sample also permitted comparisons of the appropriateness of certain tactics across gender, nationality, ethnic origin and perception of one's negotiating style.     

Information search behavior of Hong Kong's inbound travelers‐a comparison of business and leisure travelers

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine the information search behavior of Hong Kong's inbound tourists, in particular business and leisure travelers. The study clearly shows that business and leisure travelers demonstrate different information search behavior. ‘Personal experience,’ ‘Travel agency/tour company,’ ‘Airlines’ and the ‘Internet’ are most frequently relied upon by business travelers in searching for travel information, while leisure travelers prefer ‘Travel agency/tour company,’ ‘Friends or relatives,’ ‘Travel guide books,’ and ‘Personal experience.’ The study also reveals that the total number of information sources used and the length of pre‐trip planning lead‐time are significantly different between these two groups of travelers. First time travelers also have a longer pre‐trip planning lead‐time than repeat travelers. Furthermore, business and leisure travelers perceive the levels of influence of several information sources, including ‘Corporate travel departments,’ ‘Friends or relatives,’ ‘Travel guide books,’ and the ‘Internet,’ differently. These information sources were classified into five different dimensions, including ‘Media,’ ‘Neutral,’ ‘Retail,’ ‘Interpersonal,’ and ‘Personal experience.’ Analysis based on travelers' purpose for traveling and demographic information was performed. Leisure travelers perceive the level of influence of ‘Neutral’ sources as significantly higher, and those with lower household incomes perceived the level of influence of ‘Personal experience’ as lower. The results of this study will allow marketers in Hong Kong to better understand travelers’ information search behavior so that they can more effectively tailor their marketing strategies to these two major markets.     

An overview of Internet-based surveys in hospitality and tourism journals

Survey research has reached an era when the Internet is commonly used as a research tool in different fields of study. Yet, the use of this method in tourism and hospitality research has not been fully explored. This study provides a state-of-the-art assessment of journal publications in the past ten years to reveal how the Internet has been incorporated into tourism and hospitality research. Various aspects of online research in tourism and hospitality are identified via reviewing relevant articles retrieved from the EBSCOhost.     

Estimating Transition Probabilities from a Time Series of Independent Cross Sections

This paper considers the implementation of a nonstationary, heterogeneous Markov model for the analysis of a binary dependent variable in a time series of independent cross sections. The model, previously considered by M offitt (1993), offers the opportunity to estimate entry and exit transition probabilities and to examine the effects of time-constant and time-varying covariates on the hazards. We show how ML estimates of the parameters can be obtained by Fisher's method-of-scoring and how to estimate both fixed and time-varying covariate effects. The model is exemplified with an analysis of the labor force participation decision of Dutch women using data from the Socio-economic Panel (SEP) study conducted in the Netherlands between 1986 and 1995. We treat the panel data as independent cross sections and compare the employment status sequences predicted by the model with the observed sequences in the panel. Some open problems concerning the application of the model are also discussed.     

The ubiquitous tourist brochure explorations in its intended and unintended use

The format and content of tourist attraction brochures are examined. Emphasis is on their function in encouraging tourists to establish authentic “traveler-like” personal contact with the local people and area. The Old Order Amish community in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, is the setting studied. Findings indicate that brochures advertising staged tourist attractions implicity encourage tourists to move away from contact with the indigenous population and culture. Attractions are presented as convenient, efficient, and authentic means of “sampling” the region. Questions are raised about the probable consequences for a local area and its people, should large numbers of tourists choose to seek our direct and “authentic” contact with the indigenous community. It may be the staged attractions, while often the object of intellectual critique, protect the community from the pressures of mass tourism.     

Pricing Options under Generalized GARCH and Stochastic Volatility Processes

In this paper, we develop an efficient lattice algorithm to price European and American options under discrete time GARCH processes. We show that this algorithm is easily extended to price options under generalized GARCH processes, with many of the existing stochastic volatility bivariate diffusion models appearing as limiting cases. We establish one unifying algorithm that can price options under almost all existing GARCH specifications as well as under a large family of bivariate diffusions in which volatility follows its own, perhaps correlated, process.     

Why statutory union recognition is bad labour policy:the North American experience

The proposed British legislation is modelled on that of the United States which has been a clear failure in its stated goal of encouraging the practice and procedure of collective bargaining (Adams, 1993). It has instead perpetuated a culture of labour-management animosity that many other nations have 113been able, to their benefit, to overcome (Adams, 1995c).