An Investigation of the Impact of Interest Rates and Interest Rate Volatility on Australian Financial Sector Stock Return Distributions

Abstract:   This paper extends the existing literature by analysing the dual impact of changes in the interest rate and interest rate volatility on the distribution of Australian financial sector stock returns. In addition, a multivariate GARCH‐M model is used to analyse the impact of deregulation on the financial institutions sector. It was found that there is a consistent inter‐temporal trade off between risk and return over the different regulatory periods. Moreover, finance corporations were found to be highly sensitive to new shocks across the financial sector and deregulation increased the risk faced by finance corporations and small banks – effectively increasing the required rate of return and explaining the continued rationalisation of these sectors. Furthermore, deregulation has changed the fundamental relationship between interest rates and large bank stock excess returns from positive in the pre‐deregulation period to negative in the post‐deregulation period. This reflects the changing institutional environment from one of controlled credit rationing to a more competitive environment.     

On the Choice of Superannuation Funds in Australia

Using a sample of Australian retail and wholesale superannuation funds to proxy for choice and limited choice alternatives, respectively, we investigate the costs and benefits of providing choice to investors. We find that investors who have choice don't respond to fees. Also, loads - typical of the choice environment - are likely to be a dead-weight loss borne by investors. Employees who involuntarily contribute to (employer) funds, tend to pay the lowest fees. Given these results, the advantages of choice become questionable. Our results show that managers of limited choice funds achieve greater positive abnormal returns than retail fund managers. The analysis of flows provides insight into why choice funds do not perform better than limited choice funds. Investors are not responding to historical performance as predicted.     

Human capital and economic development

This paper develops a general equilibrium model of fertility and human capital investment with young adult mortality. Because young adult mortality is negatively related to average young adult human capital, human capital accumulation lowers mortality, inducing demographic transition and industrial revolution. Data confirm that young adult mortality is related negatively to schooling, and the rate of return to schooling, and positively to fertility. The data indicate a negative relationship between TFP growth and schooling accumulation. The model fits the data on country populations, per capita incomes, human capital, total fertility rates, infant mortality, life expectancy and conditional life expectancy.     

Keynes on Global Economic Integration

Keynes's vision of how to reorganize the world's financial system after World War II was rooted in his longstanding effort to understand both the strengths and weaknesses of the pre-1914 era of globalization under the gold standard.     

The Effect of Bank Debt Downgrades on Stock Prices of Other Banks

We find that debt downgrades of money center banks elicit negative stock price responses in nondowngraded money center banks. Stock prices of larger regional banks also react to these downgrades. Although downgrades of regional banks evoke negative stock price responses for regional banks in the same geographic region, the importance of geographic region as a factor determining the extent of intra‐industry reactions has diminished since 1989. Our results indicate that the merger and expansion activities triggered by interstate banking have blurred differences between regional and money center banks as interstate banking activity has moved towards nationwide banking