Fertility,human capital and the wealth of families

Summary An overlapping generations model with parental altruism is examined. The existence of the optimal value function in a model with an endogenous discount rate is proven. Two development regimes are produced: a high fertility, low income and no growth steady state, and a perpetual growth equilibrium with low fertility and rising income.This paper is adapted from my dissertation. I would like to thank the members of my dissertation committee for helpful comments and suggestions, Messrs, Gary S. Becker, Robert E. Lucas, Jr., Kevin M. Murphy and Sherwin Rosen. I'd like to thank Brooks Pierce, Paul Romer, Ken Judd, Beth Ingram, Ed Prescott and Fernando Alvarez. I also thank the workshop participants of the University of Chicago, University of Pennsylvania, University of Toronto, University of Rochester, University of Washington, Penn State University, University at Buffalo, SUNY, Columbia University and University of Iowa.     

The structure of marketing channel relationships

Distribution channel research has been advanced in recent years by contributions based on the political economy paradigm, transaction cost analysis, and relationship marketing. Drawing on these bodies of thought, we propose a new conceptualization of the structure of marketing channel relationships. Relationship structure is defined in terms of decision-making structure and operational integration. The proposed model of channel structure antecedents and consequences is consistent with the major research paradigms but extends beyond simple categorical assemblages of constructs to provide an ordered set of relationships based on theory and empirical research. This conceptualization reconciles some apparent contradictions in the literature and provides a clear focus for structure, process, and performance research in channels. He received his Ph.D. in marketing from Louisiana State University. He has published in the areas of marketing channels, retailing, and logistics. His work has appeared in theJournal of Marketing Research, Journal of Marketing, Journal of Retailing, Journal of Business Research, Journal of Marketing Channels, International Journal of Physical Distribution and Materials Management, Journal of Marketing Education, and others. He served as the managing director of public relations with the Federal Express Corporation before entering the Ph.D. program at Alabama. He holds a B.B.A. in accountancy from the University of Mississippi and an M.A. in marketing from the University of Alabama.     

From edgeworth to fisher to vickrey: A comment on Michael J. Boskin's Vickrey lecture

Irving Fisher has been overlooked as an influence on William Vickrey's work on taxation and as a link between Edgeworth and Vickrey. Vickrey was Fisher's last and greatest student.     

Productivity Trends in Europe: Implications for Real Exchange Rates, Real Interest Rates, and Inflation

The paper examines a long–run (neoclassical) framework in which differences in productivity growth across sectors and countries lead to inflation differentials. In a currency union, these inflation differentials imply cross–country differentials in real interest rates. The authors estimate the likely size of these differentials for European Union countries, discuss the potential costs of persistent inflation differentials, and comment on the conflicts they may cause within Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The analytical framework is a variant of the Balassa–Samuelson "productivity hypotheisis," which relates sectoral productivity trends to trends in the relative price of home goods.     

The Effects of Occupational Injuries After Returns to Work: Work Absences and Losses of On-the-Job Productivity

We extend the research on postinjury employment by estimating productivity losses for workers with permanent partial disabilities (PPDs) in the first three years after injury. Our method distinguishes between productivity losses attributed to spells of work absence versus reduced earnings during spells of employment. The method is applied to data for 800 Ontario workers with PPDs. The results document large productivity losses persisting at least three years after injury, with different loss patterns for workers returning to stable versus unstable employment. Human capital investments or job accommodations can reduce productivity losses, but the significant determinants of losses differ for the stable versus unstable employment groups.     

Economics and underdetermination: a case study of urban land and housing economics

Underdetermination, associated with the Duhem–Quine thesis,is a familiar if under-researched theme in economics. In thelight of this, we examine the development of urban land andhousing economics. Through its Cartesian dualistic delineationof theory and data, the contemporary mainstream approach appearsunable to circumvent the problem of underdetermination. In effect,it employs the strong version of Duhem–Quine in its retentionof the assumption of a single, unitary competitive market (andassociated access–space trade-off). Conversely, we highlightthe affinity of Ely's (and the later Columbia School's) approachto pragmatists Dewey and Peirce, which provides a more fruitfulbasis for explanation.     

Shopping from a List: International Studies of Consumer Online Experiences

In response to the growth of online shopping, consumer groups from around the world participated in two mystery shopping exercises. These exercises, conducted during the Christmas holiday seasons of 1998 and 2000, involved buying a variety of products from web sites located both domestically and abroad. A number of serious problems were identified within the research, especially lack of disclosure of key consumer information and failures in delivering goods and refunding consumers when goods were returned. The research has been used by consumer organizations to enhance consumer education and to lobby governmental and self-regulatory bodies for greater consumer protection in the online environment.     

Estimating the Size of a Criminal Population from Police Records Using the Truncated Poisson Regression Model

The truncated Poisson regression model is used to arrive at point and interval estimates of the size of two offender populations, i.e. drunk drivers and persons who illegally possess firearms. The dependent capture–recapture variables are constructed from Dutch police records and are counts of individual arrests for both violations. The population size estimates are derived assuming that each count is a realization of a Poisson distribution, and that the Poisson parameters are related to covariates through the truncated Poisson regression model. These assumptions are discussed in detail, and the tenability of the second assumption is assessed by evaluating the marginal residuals and performing tests on overdispersion. For the firearms example, the second assumption seems to hold well, but for the drunk drivers example there is some overdispersion. It is concluded that the method is useful, provided it is used with care.     

Inferential Causal Models: Integrating Quality & Quantity

In-depth data analysis plus statistical modeling can produce inferentialcausal models. Their creation thus combines aspects of analysis by close inspection,that is, reason analysis and cross-tabular analysis, with statistical analysis procedures,especially those that are special cases of the generalized linear model (McCullaghand Nelder, 1989; Agresti, 1996; Lindsey, 1997). This paper explores some of the roots of this combined method and suggests some new directions. An exercise clarifies some limitations of classic reason analysis by showing how the cross tabulation of variables with controls for test factors may produce better inferences. Then, given the cross tabulation of several variables, by explicating Coleman effect parameters, logistic regressions, and Poisson log-linear models, it shows how generalized linear models provide appropriate measures of effects and tests of statistical significance. Finally, to address a weakness of reason analysis, a case-control design is proposed and an example is developed.