Two scenarios for Europe: “Europe confronted with high energy prices” or “Europe after oil peaking”

A significant change in trends regarding energy prices (in particular oil) has taken place in 2003 at the beginning of the Iraq War. It has revealed a very strong tension between oil prices on the one hand and the relationship between global oil supply and demand on the other. The strong growth rates of emerging economies up to 2008 have generated a very sharp increase in oil prices. The temporary economic recession of 2008-2009 has resulted in turn into a significant decrease of oil prices, down to a level which remained, however, twice as high as that of early 2003. With the economy recovering from the recession, it is highly probable that energy prices will continue to increase and that Europe will be confronted with high energy prices in the coming decades. Against this general background, two scenarios have been elaborated which differ mainly by the time of occurrence of oil peaking.¹ The differences between the scenario hypotheses are therefore differences of context in relation to exogenous factors. Policies are also considered in the scenarios, but they are not at the forefront and their impact is considered as limited in relation to that of exogenous factors.The first scenario “Europe in a context of high energy price” assumes that the process of oil peaking will not take place before 2030, but that oil price increase will nevertheless be sustained and substantial until then. Numerous adjustments will have to be made in the economy and their territorial impacts will be significant (less polycentricity, more compact cities, decline of the importance of road and air transport). The second scenario “Europe after oil production peaking” assumes that oil production will peak around the mid-2010s (followed by gas production peaking around 2025), despite significant investments to increase production. In a context of steadily growing oil and gas demand, Europe will be confronted with serious economic difficulties. The territorial impacts will be different from those suggested by the first scenario, with stronger pressure put on rural areas and a loss of attractiveness of large cities related to increasing unemployment and social tensions. In both scenarios, the countries of central and eastern Europe will be more severely hit by the new energy context.The scenarios were elaborated in 2005 and slightly reviewed in 2009 in order to take account of the impacts of the economic recession in Europe and of the growing concerns about climate change.     

Postnormal network futures: A rejoinder to Ziauddin Sardar

Sardar's “Welcome to Postnormal Times” describes the chaotic, contradictory and uncertain climate today, and analyses the failure of progress, modernisation or efficiency to provide ethical, political or even trustworthy economic solutions to the instability of the present. Missing in his analysis is the role of knowledge, especially as it is migrating from individuals to technical networks. This paper argues that recent developments in the networking of knowledge point towards a new constellation in which networks are emerging as major powers alongside the nation and the market, the two pillars of global political economy in the 20th and early 21st century. It responds to Sardar's challenge to imagine the future by imagining the political consequences of recognising non-human agencies as political actors.     

Futurists and their schools: A response to Ziauddin Sardar's ‘the namesake’

A ‘futurist’ is the generic term for someone seriously engaged in the consideration of future conditions. ‘Futures research’ has a systems science orientation with a planning horizon in excess of 10 years. ‘Futures studies’ has a social science connotation and ‘foresight’ is the most popular term within the management science and corporate sectors. Five schools of futures researchers are defined: 1. Environmental and geosciences. 2. Infrastructure systems and engineering technology. 3. Social, political and economic science. 4. Human life, mind and information science. 5. Business and management science. The academic route to a futures qualification is outlined with a list of futures orientated organisations. The inclusion of urbanisation in the next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment, would involve replacing the notion of economic equilibrium by the concept of far-from-equilibrium stability. Finally futures research is described as an evolutionary science, which will possibly become integrated within complexity science by 2050.     

Inter-market competition for NYSE-listed securities under decimals

Blume and Goldstein (J Finance 52:221–244, 1997) suggest that quote competition between trading venues may diminish following tick size reductions. We test this suggestion by studying the competitive landscape in the NYSE-listed stocks before and after decimalization. We find that NBBO (National Best Bid and Offer) participation by non-NYSE venues declines following decimalization consistent with the prediction. At the same time, the importance of quote competitiveness in attracting order flow increases. In addition, although not as active in determining and maintaining the best quotes under decimals, non-NYSE venues become more active in price discovery. Finally, decimalization leads to lower trading costs and to smaller differences in trading costs across trading venues.     

Generalized quadratic revenue functions

In this paper we focus on the specification of revenue functions in their dual price space. We consider two distance functions–the Shephard output distance function and the directional output distance function–and define both in price space. The former is multiplicative in nature and satisfies homogeneity, whereas the latter is additive and satisfies the translation property. Functional equation methods yield the translog specification in the case of the Shephard distance function and a quadratic specification in the case of the directional distance function. Monte Carlo evidence suggests that the quadratic specification outperforms the translog in large samples and in true models with plenty of curvature.     

International mergers and acquisitions in the UK 1985-94: a comparison of national HRM practices

The paper investigates HRM practices adopted by companies from the USA, Japan, Germany and France in UK companies that they have acquired. UK/UK acquisitions are used as a control. The research is based on a survey instrument applied to 201 companies and interviews with forty. It notes that there is some convergence of HRM practices, in that, for example, all countries researched employ performance-related pay and increase the amount of training in their new subsidiaries. It finds, however, that there is a distinct difference in the HRM practices employed by companies from each of the countries, influenced by the characteristic HR practices common to companies in the country of origin of the parent.     

The Herning-Ikast textile industry: an industrial district in West Jutland

Notions of social inclusion and the need to combat social exclusion have become popular areas of attention in academic and policy circles. The importance of small firms and entrepreneurship as a means to raising inclusion has been emphasized in these new agendas. A priori, there are a number of reasons why small businesses may be regarded as providing opportunities for social inclusion. However, in this paper we argue that the recent expectations of the role of small firms and entrepreneurship in combating social exclusion are over optimistic. Some of the assumptions on which these expectations are based are questioned. Instead, we suggest that attention should start by a clearer understanding of the concept of social exclusion. Individual economic strategies, in the form of small business activity, can make some contribution but because of the complex multidimensional nature of social exclusion, over-inflated claims should be avoided. When these claims are not achieved there may be a danger of a policy backlash against the promotion of business ownership and disaffection amongst those who fail to realize their goals. This paper draws on secondary evidence and concludes with implications for policy and suggestions for further research.     

For the greater good: business networks and business social responsibility to communities

Business networks (co-operative arrangements between independent business organizations) may be the signature organizational form of the contemporary global economy. Many policy-makers and local leaders advocate business network membership as an alternative development strategy for regional economic vitality. The extant literature on business networks has focused on their association with business success. However, little is known about their impact on other aspects of community life. The purpose of this paper is to elaborate the role of network membership on one non-economic dimension of the business community interface. We examined the relationship between business network membership and business social responsibility to communities, defined as the provision of leadership and support for community betterment projects. Data were gathered from telephone interviews with a random sample of 460 non-metro small business operators in the USA. Independent t-tests and ordinary least squares regression analyses controlling for theoretically important variables were conducted. Findings show that networked businesses provide more leadership and support for their communities than non-networked businesses. However, networked businesses were no more likely than non-networked businesses to use local suppliers of goods and services.     

SEMIPARAMETRIC VECTOR MEM

Financial time series are often non‐negative‐valued (volumes, trades, durations, realized volatility, daily range) and exhibit clustering. When joint dynamics is of interest, the vector multiplicative error model (vMEM; the element‐by‐element product of a vector of conditionally autoregressive scale factors and a multivariate i.i.d. innovation process) is a suitable strategy. Its parameters can be estimated by generalized method of moments, bypassing the problem of specifying a multivariate distribution for the errors. Simulated results show the gains in efficiency relative to an equation‐by‐equation approach. A vMEM on several measures of volatility justifies a joint approach revealing full interdependence. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.