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961.
Studies have indicated that forecasts by market experts can be more accurate than time series forecasts. This article describes a process for structuring an expert foreign exchange forecast using Saaty's Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The specific example developed is a forecast of the yen/dollar spot exchange rate from the standpoint of a company considering the desirability of arranging for forward exchange cover. 相似文献
962.
963.
This paper expands the base of empirical evidence on the social security aggregate private saving issue by examining the behavior of consumer expenditure in 16 industrialized countries over the 1951–60 period. The results are mixed in that time series movements of social security exhibit a positive relation to consumer spending, while the cross-sectional variations reveal a negative association. Our overall conclusion is that the cross-country evidence provides neither empirical support for the hypothesis that social security depresses private saving nor an empirical refutation of that hypothesis. We argue that this indeterminacy of results applies also to previous studies of U.S. time series and to analyses of household cross sections in the U.S. 相似文献
964.
965.
966.
A method is described for constructing all Pareto-optimal allocations for a dynamic economy with many heterogeneous consumers, under certainty, in which both the technology and consumer preferences are recursive but preferences need not be additively separable over time. Optimal (perfect foresight competitive equilibrium) allocations are obtained through the study of a dynamic program. For an economy with one consumption good, sufficient conditions are given for the existence of a unique interior stationary distribution of consumption and wealth. For a two-person exchange economy, sufficient conditions are given for the global asymptotic stability of the unique interior stationary point. 相似文献
967.
Conclusions Our results indicate that the general line of reasoning embodied in the recently developed models of North-South IIT would
seem to be valid. The various measures of income and size similarity do seem to affect North-South IIT in the theoretically
predicted way. Further, this type of trade is positively impacted by the direction of quality differences and, to a lesser
degree, the extent of quality differences. Finally, it would appear that modeling this type of trade on a bilateral basis
using data detailed by both industry and country has not only theoretial appeal, but is empirically useful.
The results, however, do not address the mechanism which generates these quality differences between the exports of the North
and South. The theoretical models use different assumptions concerning the process which generates the quality differences.
Such differences may be related to capital abundance as in Falvey [1981]; a Ricardian form of comparative advantage as in
Flam and Helpman [1987]; or a complex combination of the two.15 Some preliminary evidence on the role of quality differences has been given in this paper. The difficult task of explaining
what generates these differences is an important issue left unaddressed at this point. 相似文献
968.
969.
Prior research regarding the influence of dividends and earnings on stock prices in the insurance industry is extended through comparison across insurance industry sectors. Dividends and earnings appear to have different impacts across sectors and at the high versus low levels of the annual stock price trading range. 相似文献
970.
A pilot study which was carried out to attempt to assess the effectiveness of a systematic course of instruction in the use of the domestic sewing machine is reported and discussed. 相似文献