Uncertainty, co-ordination and path dependence

Our objective is to assess whether dynamics hinder or assist co-ordination in a game with strategic complementarities. We study two dynamic aspects: different agents make decisions at different points in time; and extra information about a payoff-relevant state of nature becomes available over time. We find that the dynamic resolution of information matters most for uniqueness of equilibrium. This is demonstrated by showing that the condition for uniqueness is weaker when learning occurs. We also analyse how successfully agents co-ordinate when there is a unique equilibrium. Finally, we show that path dependence occurs: the order in which signals arrive matters, as well as the total amount of information received.     

What did Medicare do? The initial impact of Medicare on mortality and out of pocket medical spending

We study the impact of the introduction of one of the major pillars of the social insurance system in the United States: the introduction of Medicare in 1965. Our results suggest that, in its first 10 years, the establishment of universal health insurance for the elderly had no discernible impact on elderly mortality. However, we find a substantial reduction in the elderly's exposure to out of pocket medical expenditure risk. Specifically, we estimate that the introduction of Medicare was associated with a 40% decline in out of pocket spending for the top quartile of the out of pocket spending distribution. A stylized expected utility framework suggests that the welfare gains from such reductions in risk exposure alone may be sufficient to cover almost two-fifths of the costs of Medicare. These findings underscore the importance of considering the direct insurance benefits from public health insurance programs, in addition to any indirect benefits from an effect on health.     

Assessing advertising content in a hospital advertising campaign: An application of Puto and Wells (1984) measure of informational and transformational advertising content

The following is a report of a study designed to measure advertising content based on the cognitive and affective elements of informational (i.e., information processing) and transformational (i.e., experiential) content using the measure of advertising informational and transformational content developed by Puto and Wells (1984). A university hospital advertising campaign designed to be high in transformational content did not appear to affect perceived quality of local university hospitals relative to private hospitals or increase the likelihood of choosing a university hospital in the future. Further, experiences with university hospitals that seemed to be in direct contrast to the content of the advertisements based on subject perceptions affected how university hospital advertisements were perceived in terms of content. Conclusions and implications for hospital advertising campaigns are discussed.     

Multivariate models of hotel occupancy performance and their implications for hotel marketing

Multivariate models are developed to explain the differential occupancy performance of a sample of 279 English hotels. Following a procedure established in an earlier paper, hotels are first differentiated on the basis of their overall occupancy performance, seasonality, long‐term trend and length of season. Regression models are specified and calibrated to relate each of these dimensions of occupancy performance to the location and other characteristics of the hotels. The four models produce the expected positions of hotels in ‘occupancy performance space’, against which their observed positions can be compared. The application of the models in hotel marketing is discussed and demonstrated. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hours risk and wage risk: repercussions over the life cycle*

We decompose earnings risk into contributions from hours and wage shocks. To distinguish between hours shocks, modeled as innovations to the marginal disutility of work, and labor supply reactions to wage shocks, we formulate a life-cycle model of consumption and labor supply. For estimation, we use data on married American men from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. Permanent wage shocks explain 31 percent of total risk, permanent hours shocks 21 percent. Progressive taxation attenuates cross-sectional earnings risk, but its life-cycle insurance impact is much smaller. At the mean, a one-standard-deviation hours shock raises lifetime income by 11 percent, a wage shock by 13 percent.