Estimating the impact of incidents on urban controlled-access highways: an empirical analysis

An empirical analysis is developed that quantifies the impact of different types of traffic incidents on the speed and maximum flow averages of vehicles on a controlled-access highway. The incident types considered include damage to highway infrastructure, vehicle rollover, crashes (into stationary objects), collisions (with moving vehicles), rain, fog, vehicle breakdowns, pedestrians on roadway, etc. Using real-world data from Chile’s most heavily used urban motorway/freeway, estimates of incident impacts on speed are generated using a multiple linear regression model incorporating instrumental variables to correct for endogeneity. Flow results are then generated using the fundamental traffic equation relating speed, flow and density. A ranking of the impacts on highway traffic of the different incident types based on incident frequency as well as impact size demonstrates that for the real case studied, the incidents with the greatest cumulative effect are (in order of magnitude) vehicle breakdown, collisions and rain.     

A dynamic factor model for nowcasting Canadian GDP growth

This paper estimates a dynamic factor model (DFM) for nowcasting Canadian gross domestic product. The model is estimated with a mix of soft and hard indicators, and it features a high share of international data. The model is then used to generate nowcasts, predictions of the recent past and current state of the economy. In a pseudo-real-time setting, we show that the DFM outperforms univariate benchmarks, as well as other commonly used nowcasting models, such as MIDAS and bridge regressions.     

Crisis Transmission: Evidence from the Debt, Tequila, and Asian Flu Crises

This article analyzes how external crises spread across countries.The authors analyze the behavior of four alternative crisisindicators in a sample of 20 countries during three well-knowncrises: the 1982 debt crisis, the 1994 Mexican crisis, and the1997 Asian crisis. The objective is twofold: to revisit thetransmission channels of crises, and to analyze whether capitalcontrols, exchange rate flexibility, and debt maturity structureaffect the extent of contagion. The results indicate that thereis a strong neighborhood effect. Trade links and similarityin precrisis growth also explain (to a lesser extent) whichcountries suffer more contagion. Both debt composition and exchangerate flexibility to some extent limit contagion, whereas capitalcontrols do not appear to curb it.     

Tax Amnesties and Income Tax Compliance: The Case of Spain

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the long‐term impact on Spanish individual income tax (IRPF) compliance of the amnesty measures granted in 1991 within the framework of the 1988–91 income tax reform programme. To that end, we combine time‐series techniques with outlier detection methods and the Bai and Perron (1998) test for the endogenous estimation of structural breaks. On the basis of the analysis of the monthly IRPF tax collection series from 1979 to 1998, we find that the amnesty had no effect on tax collection in either the short or the long term. By contrast, we find evidence of the permanent positive impact caused by the legislative and administrative measures linked to the IRPF reform process begun in 1988.     

Rising Sun Shines on the Land of Carnival

Leon Hollerman, Japan's Economic Strategy in Brazil: Challenge for the United States (Lexington, Massachusetts, and Toronto: Lexington Books, D.C. Heath, 1988) 284 pp., US$41.00 and C$56.95.     

Purchasing Power Parity: Error Correction Models and Structural Breaks

This paper examines purchasing power parity (PPP) behavior using error correction models (ECM) and allowing for structural breaks. We distinguish four different objectives: first, this paper examines which variable or variables (the exchange rate and/or international relative prices) exhibit a significant error correction mechanism. Second, this paper presents empirical evidence about the adjustment velocity to the long-run equilibrium. Third, it examines the evidence regarding cointegration and the adjustment coefficients parameter instability, and finally, it analyzes whether traded and non-traded sectors exhibit different behavior. The most important results are: (1) the predominant adjustment is in the exchange rate with a larger velocity adjustment than in relative prices; (2) the evidence suggests that when there are strong depreciations or appreciations in the exchange rate, the international relative prices adjust (i.e., there is evidence of pass-through); (3) the dynamic adjustment to equilibrium is, in general, stable.     

The Autoimmunity of the EU’s Deadly B/ordering Regime; Overcoming its Paradoxical Paper,Iron and Camp Borders

ABSTRACT

In this article we argue that the EU suffers from autoimmunity: a self-harming protection strategy. Drawing on Derrida’s political understanding of autoimmunity, we contend that the root of this malfunction lies in the EU’s own b/ordering and othering policies, which are intended to immunise the foundational ethos of the EU. For this purpose, we dissect the EU border regime into three linked b/ordering mechanisms: the pre-borders of paper documents that regulate from afar the mobility of the people from visa-obliged countries; the actual land borders often consisting of iron gates and fences regulating mobility on the spot; and the post-border in the form of waiting/detention camps that segregate and enclose the undocumented migrants after entry. We make clear how this discriminatory b/ordering and othering regime has led to a recurrent drawing of ever less porous, inhumane and deadlier borders. Such thanatopolitics finds itself at odds with the humanist values that the EU is supposed to uphold, particularly cross-border solidarity, openness, non-discrimination and human rights. We argue that the EU b/ordering regime has turned fear of the non-EUropean into an increasingly unquestioned – even ‘commonsensical’ – anxiety that has become politically profitable to exploit by extreme nationalistic and EUrosceptic parties. The core of the EU’s autoimmunity that we want to expose lies within this irony: in its attempt to protect what it considers meaningful, the EU has unleashed an autoimmune disorder that has turned the EU into its own most formidable threat.     

Introducing the Bank of Canada staff economic projections database

We present a new, publicly available database of real-time data and forecasts from the Bank of Canada's staff economic projections, which will be updated on an annual basis. We describe the data construct, its variables, coverage, and frequency. We then provide a forecast evaluation for gross domestic product (GDP) growth, consumer price index (CPI) inflation and the policy rate since 1982: We compare the staff's forecasts with those from commonly used time series models estimated with the real-time data, and with forecasts from other professional forecasters, and provide standard bias tests. Finally, we study changes in predictability of the Canadian economy following the announcement of the inflation-targeting regime in 1991. Our data set is unprecedented outside the USA, and our evidence is particularly interesting, as it covers over 30 years of staff forecasts, two severe recessions, and different monetary policy regimes.     

Do employees value strategic CSR? A tale of affective organizational commitment and its underlying mechanisms

Virtually all studies that focus on the relationship between CSR perceptions and employees’ organizational commitment have not taken into consideration the fit between social and environmental activities and a firm’s business‐unit strategy. This is essential to inquire because scholars have argued that when companies ingrain CSR activities into their strategy‐making process (i.e., in their vision, mission, and overall business model), this might send a more compelling message that resonates closer to workers’ personal standards, and actually enhance employee‐level outcomes. Nevertheless, there is no certainty “if” and “how” these evaluations could affect employees’ organizational commitment. To address this issue, we use cue consistency theory and social identity theory as overarching frameworks to develop a model where we conceptually link perceptions of strategy‐CSR fit with a particular type of organizational commitment: affective. In addition, we posit and test three mediators to understand the underlying psychological mechanisms of this relationship: perceived external prestige, organizational identification, and work meaningfulness. Through structural equation modeling, and using a heterogeneous final sample of 579 employees, we find compelling evidence to support the fact that strategy‐CSR fit enhances employees’ affective organizational commitment through the proposed mediators. Academic contributions and practical implications are then discussed.     

The need for new theoretical conceptualizations on National Systems of Innovation,based on the experience of Latin America

ABSTRACT

The peripheral condition of Latin America has changed but persists in spite of a long decade of favorable economic conditions and heterodox policies. A renewed conceptualization of underdevelopment and of Innovation Systems is needed. Here it is connected with Sustainable Human Development, with the dynamics of power and with the transformative change framework. The ‘triangle paper’ is a main guide. Special attention is given to innovation heuristics forged in the South. If combined with advanced knowledge and high qualifications, they may contribute worldwide to the urgent transitions to less inequality and higher sustainability. Some elements for a related research agenda are sketched.