Recognizing contributors: an experiment on public goods

We experimentally investigate the impact of recognizing contributors on public good contributions. We vary recognizing all, highest or lowest contributors. Consistent with previous studies, recognizing all contributors significantly increases contributions relative to the baseline. Recognizing only the highest contributors does not increase contributions compared to not recognizing contributors, while recognizing only the lowest contributors is as effective as recognizing all contributors. These findings support our conjecture that aversion from shame is a more powerful motivator for giving than anticipation of prestige.     

Evaluating changes in the monetary transmission mechanism in the Czech Republic

We investigate the evolution of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the Czech Republic over the course of the 1996–2010 time period through the use of a time-varying parameters Bayesian vector autoregression model with stochastic volatility. We evaluate whether the response of GDP and the price level to exchange rate or interest rate shocks has changed over time, focusing on the period of the recent financial crisis. Our results suggest that prices have become increasingly responsive to monetary policy shocks. However, in terms of credible intervals, the stability of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the Czech Republic cannot be rejected. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the exchange rate pass-through has largely remained stable over time.     

Multi-criteria Remote Asynchronous Group Decision Screening: An Experimental Study

A new visualization-based multi-criteria procedure for group decision screening is presented. The procedure supports a group in selecting a small number of alternatives from an initial list described by a collection of attributes which are used as screening criteria. We propose and experimentally study the Group Remote Asynchronous Screening Support (GRASS) procedure that can be used by a large number of participants who are not able to meet face to face. GRASS does not use any interaction between the participants and the group screening is based on the individual preferences expressed by them independently from each other. GRASS uses the concepts of Borda count, by applying the visualization of information to simplify the analysis of large lists of multi-criteria alternatives. Visualization is used to support the individual analysis of the variety of alternatives and the individual selecting of a small number of alternatives from the list for the subsequent scoring through Borda count. Visualization is carried via the Interactive Decision Maps / Reasonable Goals Method (IDM/RGM) technique. We first check a speculative supposition that participants are able to find a single best alternative by using the GRASS procedure. As it is not the case, we re-formulate our hypothesis and check whether the most preferred alternative is part of a short list of alternatives returned through GRASS. The experiment was carried out with senior applied mathematics students who managed to apply GRASS without any problem.     

The Arctic Environmental Responsibility Index: A method to rank heterogenous extractive industry companies for governance purposes

The Arctic Environmental Responsibility Index (AERI) covers 120 oil, gas, and mining companies involved in resource extraction north of the Arctic Circle in Alaska, Canada, Greenland, Finland, Norway, Russia, and Sweden. It is based on an international expert perception survey among 173 members of the International Panel on Arctic Environmental Responsibility (IPAER), whose input is processed using segmented string relative ranking (SSRR) methodology. Equinor, Total, Aker BP, ConocoPhillips, and BP are seen as the most environmentally responsible companies, whereas Dalmorneftegeophysica, Zarubejneft, ERIELL, First Ore-Mining Company, and Stroygaz Consulting are seen as the least environmentally responsible. Companies operating in Alaska have the highest average rank, whereas those operating in Russia have the lowest average rank. Larger companies tend to rank higher than smaller companies, state-controlled companies rank higher than privately controlled companies, and oil and gas companies higher than mining companies. The creation of AERI demonstrates that SSRR is a low-cost way to overcome the challenge of indexing environmental performance and contributing to environmental governance across disparate industrial sectors and states with divergent environmental standards and legal and political systems.     

The cross-section of currency volatility premia

We identify a global risk factor in the cross-section of implied volatility returns in currency markets. A zero-cost strategy that buys forward volatility agreements with downward sloping implied volatility curves and sells those with upward slopes–a volatility carry strategy–generates significant excess returns. The covariation with volatility carry returns fully explains the cross-sectional variation of our slope-sorted portfolios. The lower the slope, the more the forward volatility agreement is exposed to volatility carry risk.     

ON PROPERTIES OF ANALYTICALLY SOLVABLE FAMILIES OF LOCAL VOLATILITY DIFFUSION MODELS

We present some further developments in the construction and classification of new solvable one‐dimensional diffusion models having transition densities, and other quantities that are fundamental to derivatives pricing, representable in analytically closed form. Our approach is based on so‐called diffusion canonical transformations that produce a large class of multiparameter nonlinear local volatility diffusion models that are mapped onto various simpler diffusions. Using an asymptotic analysis, we arrive at a rigorous boundary classification as well as a characterization with respect to probability conservation and the martingale property of the newly constructed diffusions. Specifically, we analyze and classify in detail four main families of driftless regular diffusion models that arise from the underlying squared Bessel process (the Bessel family), Cox–Ingersoll–Ross process (the confluent hypergeometric family), the Ornstein‐Uhlenbeck diffusion (the OU family), and the Jacobi diffusion (the hypergeometric family). We show that the Bessel family is a superset of the constant elasticity of variance model without drift. The Bessel family, in turn, is nested by the confluent hypergeometric family. For these two families we find further subfamilies of conservative strict supermartingales and nonconservative martingales with an exit boundary. For the new classes of nonconservative regular diffusions we also derive analytically exact first exit time densities that are given in terms of generalized inverse Gaussians and extensions. As for the two other new models, we show that the OU family of processes are conservative strict martingales, whereas the Jacobi family are nonconservative nonmartingales. Considered as asset price diffusion models, we also show that these models demonstrate a wide range of local volatility shapes and option implied volatility surfaces that include various pronounced skew and smile patterns.     

Correlates of economic growth in developing countries: a panel cointegration approach

The inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) has been found to play a crucial role in the economic growth of receiving countries. Using panel cointegration techniques, this perception was found to be mitigated by an empirical approach that yields different results from previous studies. While the growth in real FDI has an influence on real GDP growth across developing countries in the short-run, year-to-year periods, it does not explain real GDP in the long-run. Rather, it appears to be the economic factors internal to a country that have the most influence on real GDP over time: human capital (measured by literacy rates), export trade, and monetary and fiscal policy.     

Implied volatility sentiment: a tale of two tails

We propose a sentiment measure jointly derived from out-of-the-money index puts and single stock calls: implied volatility (IV-) sentiment. In contrast to implied correlations, our measure uses information from the tails of the risk-neutral densities from these two markets rather than across their entire moneyness structures. We find that IV-sentiment measure adds value over and above traditional factors in predicting the equity risk premium out-of-sample. Forecasting results are superior when constrained ensemble models are used vis-à-vis unregularized machine learning techniques. In a mean-reversion strategy, our IV-sentiment measure delivers economically significant results, with limited exposure to a set of cross-sectional equity factors, including Fama and French's five factors, the momentum factor and the low-volatility factor, and seems valuable in preventing momentum crashes. Our novel measure reflects overweight of tail events, which we interpret as a behavioral bias. However, we cannot rule out a risk-compensation rationale.     

Nachhaltigkeit und Wettbewerbsrecht

Sustainability goals are frequently achieved through cooperation between companies. However, this is often inadmissible under current competition law. So far, the competition authorities have had to limit their assessment of cooperations and mergers to the effects in the relevant market. The EU Commission has now explicitly taken up the issue of sustainability in the draft Horizontal Guidelines. It introduces exemptable cooperation on “sustainability cooperation”. Thus, the exchange of information on sustainable suppliers will be permissible, as will a joint campaign to promote sustainability awareness. The article discusses the possibilities and problems arising from this.

     

International spillovers of (un)conventional monetary policy: The effect of the ECB and the US Fed on non-euro EU countries

We estimate a global vector autoregression model to examine the effects of euro area and US monetary policy stances, together with the effect of euro area consumer prices, on economic activity and prices in non-euro EU countries using monthly data from 2001-2016. Along with some standard macroeconomic variables, our model contains measures of the shadow monetary policy rate to address the zero lower bound and the implementation of unconventional monetary policy by the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve. We find that these monetary shocks have the expected qualitative effects but their magnitude differs across countries, with southeastern EU economies being less affected than their peers in Central Europe. Euro area monetary shocks have a greater effect than those that emanate from the US. We also find certain evidence that the effects of unconventional monetary policy measures are weaker than those of conventional measures. The spillovers of euro area price shocks to non-euro EU countries are limited, suggesting that the law of one price materializes slowly.