Financial Modeling in a Fast Mean-Reverting Stochastic Volatility Environment

We present a derivative pricing and estimation methodology for a class of stochastic volatility models that exploits the observed 'bursty' or persistent nature of stock price volatility. Empirical analysis of high-frequency S&P 500 index data confirms that volatility reverts slowly to its mean in comparison to the tick-by- tick fluctuations of the index value, but it is fast mean- reverting when looked at over the time scale of a derivative contract (many months). This motivates an asymptotic analysis of the partial differential equation satisfied by derivative prices, utilizing the distinction between these time scales. The analysis yields pricing and implied volatility formulas, and the latter provides a simple procedure to 'fit the skew' from European index option prices. The theory identifies the important group parameters that are needed for the derivative pricing and hedging problem for European-style securities, namely the average volatility and the slope and intercept of the implied volatility line, plotted as a function of the log- moneyness-to-maturity-ratio. The results considerably simplify the estimation procedure. The remaining parameters, including the growth rate of the underlying, the correlation between asset price and volatility shocks, the rate of mean-reversion of the volatility and the market price of volatility risk are not needed for the asymptotic pricing formulas for European derivatives, and we derive the formula for a knock-out barrier option as an example. The extension to American and path-dependent contingent claims is the subject of future work. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Tomato Farmers and Modernising Value Chains in Indonesia

The tomato value chain in Indonesia has transformed in the last two decades. We assess this transformation here, focusing on small tomato farmers in West Java and the determinants of their market-channel choices (as well as the technology correlates of those choices). These farmers sell to traditional village traders, urban and modern wholesalers, and supermarkets, and they have all invested heavily in irrigation and rely on external inputs. We find differences among farmers selling to different market channels. To wit, non-land assets—especially irrigation—are important to farmers participating in the supermarket, or modern, channel, but farm size affects modern-channel participation only in high-level commercial zones (zones dense in infrastructure and near highways). We also find that modern-channel farmers earn more profit than farmers in other channels but do not necessarily use chemicals more intensively. Yet hardly any farmers sell graded tomatoes; the main ‘capture of rents’ goes to specialised and modernising wholesalers.     

A Critical Review of the Costs of Advertising: a Transformative Consumer Research Perspective

This critical literature review incorporates a transformative consumer research (TCR) perspective in highlighting selected transgressions in corporate social responsibility that touch on (1) wealth consolidation, (2) environmental degradation, (3) commodification, (4) semiotic contamination, and (5) an erosion of accountability. It argues for a participatory approach among stakeholders in sustaining marketing research and assessing consumer policy that is both ethical and critical for academic marketers and practitioners alike. Transformative consumer researchers work to ensure that advertisements, messaging, and integrated marketing communications play a key role in promoting honesty and transparency. At the same time, transformative consumer research recognizes that advertising often masks the underlying costs incurred by society in general, and consumers in particular. TCR practices presently exist, and examples are presented to highlight these practices in consumer policy.     

RISK DIFFERENCES AND FINANCIAL REPORTING

Financial leverage as reported by a consolidated financial statement may differ substantially from leverage for the parent company. To assess the financial risk for the parent (not the consolidated entity), employing consolidated data is hazardous; the problem is magnified by the fact that virtually all firms report only consolidated data. Consolidated leverage almost always equals or exceeds parent leverage for a wholly owned subsidiary, and many firms reporting only consolidated data have betas significantly greater than otherwise comparable firms that report both consolidated and parent company information.     

Establishing standards for intranet on-line education

Following a clear set of on-line programming standards assists educators with consistency the training expectations from participants. Placing staff educational materials and health information online is an effective way to disseminate information and an efficient method of providing ongoing staff education. The presentation of on-line programming should be organized, comprehensive, and up-to-date. In addition, on-line programming should also be appealing, dynamic, and, above all practical. Today's clinical staff are pushed to the limits of time and resources. On-line training is one way to help staff meet their learning needs in today's reality. The inception of the UWMF on-line educational programs began in January 2002. Since that date employee participation has increased steadily. The time for Intranet on-line program development is part of the staff education department. For example, one area of programming is the mandatory educational credits needed for the organizations 100 certified medical assistants (CMAs). Figure 1 shows the nearly 3.5 years (January 2002 through May 2005) of participation. The 912 sessions made available 1,870 CEs for the CMAs. If the organization's CMAs were to pay for the continuing education credits (CEs) outside of the clinic setting, it could cost on average of dollar 10.00 per CE, or dollar 18,700 during the same 3-year period. Another aspect of economics is the cost in time away from work. On-line education allows employees to participate when time is available, versus having to leave work when traditional educational inservices are being held. This flexibility in participation can lead to better staff coverage.     

Pricing the commonality across alternative measures of liquidity

We estimate latent factor models of liquidity, aggregated across various liquidity measures. Shocks to assets’ liquidity have a common component across measures which accounts for most of the explained variation in individual liquidity measures. We find that across-measure systematic liquidity is a priced factor while within-measure systematic liquidity does not exhibit additional pricing information. Controlling for across-measure systematic liquidity risk, there is some evidence that liquidity, as a characteristic of assets, is priced in the cross-section. Our results are robust to the inclusion of other equity characteristics and risk factors, such as market capitalization, book-to-market, and momentum.     

Seasonality in the cross-section of stock returns

This paper presents a new pattern in the cross-section of expected stock returns. Stocks tend to have relatively high (or low) returns every year in the same calendar month. We recognize the annual cross-sectional autocorrelation pattern documented in Jegadeesh [1990. Evidence of predictable behavior of security returns. Journal of Finance 45, 881–898] at lags of 12, 24, and 36 months as part of a general pattern that lasts up to 20 annual lags, superimposed on the general momentum/reversal patterns. This pattern explains an economically and statistically significant magnitude of the cross-sectional variation in average stock returns. Volume and volatility exhibit similar seasonal patterns but they do not explain the seasonality in returns. The pattern is independent of size, industry, earnings announcements, dividends, and fiscal year. The results are consistent with the existence of a persistent seasonal effect in stock returns.     

The divergence of liquidity commonality in the cross-section of stocks

This paper demonstrates that the cross-sectional variation of liquidity commonality has increased over the period 1963–2005. The divergence of systematic liquidity can be explained by patterns in institutional ownership over the sample period. We document that our findings are associated with similar patterns in systematic risk. Our analysis also indicates that the ability to diversify systematic risk and aggregate liquidity shocks by holding large-cap stocks has declined. The evidence suggests that the fragility of the US equity market to unanticipated events has increased over the past few decades.     

Welfare Policy in the Presence of Unionised Labour and Internationally Mobile Firms*

To what extent does the welfare state exacerbate the loss of jobs due to offshoring? We consider a model with oligopolistic sectors that are exposed to offshoring, as well as a unionised labour force that is entitled to unemployment benefits. We find that deeper economic integration induces wage moderation to the point that wages become independent of workers' outside options. Because the entire incidence of redistribution falls on net wages, the unions' willingness to moderate wages is constrained by the level of redistribution. Beyond an upper limit of redistribution, extending the welfare state compels unions to oppose wage moderation at the cost of losing jobs to offshoring. Below that upper limit, however, redistribution becomes less rather than more distortive.