Robustness of Distance Decay for International Pleasure Travelers: A Longitudinal Approach

Distance decay explains tourism demand in terms of destination distance from the origin. Although travelers tend to travel further over time, scant research studies have examined the relationship between temporal variant and distance decay. This study examines the relationship between distance and destination choice of Hong Kong international pleasure travelers’ activity over a decade. A constant pattern of distance decay with two secondary peaks was identified for a decade. This study suggests a threshold of a three‐hour flight for a five‐day trip before demand declined exponentially. The findings imply that the no traveling zone would result from weak pulling power. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using Non-linear Models for a Complexity Approach to Psychological Well-being

Psychological well-being in adolescence is an increasing field of study. The literature identifies a large number of dimensions of psychological well-being. However, even when considering all these dimensions, the explanatory power of most models is rather low. Complexity theories can be a productive alternative, at the theoretical but especially the methodological level, to the limitations more traditional approaches to psychological well-being have. In this paper, we suggest a structural equation modelling approach to complexity that focuses on the non-linearity property. Given the large number of dimensions, the model is estimated in two steps as described by Jöreskog [(2000) Latent Variable Scores and Their Uses. Lincolnwood IL: Scientific Software International] First, a confirmatory factor analysis is fitted and Anderson and Rubin’s factor scores are saved. Then all possible products and squared terms of the factor scores are computed and are used as predictors of the dependent variable using an ordered logit model. The results from a sample of 968 Catalan adolescents show that a non-linear model including interaction effects among the eight dimensions, age and gender, has a higher explanatory power to predict satisfaction with life as a whole, compared to a linear model. Important consequences for the study of psychological well-being in adolescence emerge from the methodological procedure we have followed, which can be used to study any type of complex psychological and psychosocial phenomenon.     

Racial Differences in Civic Participation and Charitable Giving: The Confounding Effects of Educational Attainment and Unmeasured Ability

In this paper we use human capital theory to follow the links from educational attainment to civic engagement, and to other pro-social behaviors such as charitable giving and volunteering, and in so doing we offer a cautionary explanation for observed racial differences in civic participation, giving, and volunteering. Our argument is that when, in a racialized society such as the U.S., the costs and benefits of education differ by race, and when innate ability is an unmeasured source of heterogeneity across individuals, controlling for educational attainment and not for ability will create spurious race effects in empirical studies of behaviors that depend on both education and ability. Because (1) blacks at any level of educational attainment are predicted to be of higher average ability than equally educated whites and (2) higher ability is associated with higher levels of civic participation, a regression of civic participation on educational attainment and race will produce a positive coefficient on the dummy variable that takes on a value of one if the subject is African American. Using data from the Social Capital Community Benchmark Survey, we find strong support for the interpretation of race effects as spurious artifacts of having included data on educational attainment without measures of innate ability.     

Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Domestic Performance: the Italian Manufacturing and Services Sectors

How does outward foreign direct investment (FDI) affect employment and productivity growth in the home country? Does the impact of outward investment differ among manufacturing and service sectors? In this paper we analyze the effects of investing abroad using firm-level data for Italy for the period 2003–2006. We adopt matching techniques in combination with a difference-in-difference estimator in order to investigate the causal effect of becoming multinational on domestic employment and productivity. Preliminary results suggest that Italian outward FDI has limited effects on domestic employment and performance of internationalizing firms on average. However, results significantly differ depending on the sector (manufacturing versus services) where the MNEs are operating. In particular, we find that while in the manufacturing sector, outward FDI tends to strengthen both productivity and, to less extent, employment. In the service sector, we find a negative effect on employment (two years after the investment).     

Earnings Distributions and Means-tested Benefits

This paper considers the question of whether it is possible to identify labour supply incentive effects of a tax and transfer system using information on only the distribution of earnings. The major characteristics of earnings distributions arising from a simple labour supply model are examined. These characteristics include the existence of modes and antimodes caused by kinks where effective marginal tax rates increase and non-convexities in budget constraints arising from means-testing. Actual earnings distributions, concentrating on unemployment benefit recipients, are then examined. It is suggested that the use of such an approach must be severely limited, in view of the fact that there is no one-to-one correspondence between the form of the earnings distribution and the parameters of a tax and transfer system.     

The Effect of PhD Funding on Postdegree Research Career and Publication Productivity

This paper explores the extent to which PhD funding encourages postdegree research career and leads to publications. Using novel data on Italian PhD graduates, I find positive modest effects of funding both on pursuing a research career and on publication productivity within a few years after graduation. The results are robust to a battery of checks and different model specifications. I also provide evidence that funded students invest more in research‐oriented activities and spend less time on outside (non‐research) work during the PhD, thus highlighting mechanisms that potentially account for the effect of funding.     

Structural change and female participation in recent economic growth: a multisectoral analysis for the Spanish economy

ABSTRACT

Economic growth has different impacts on gender gaps. In recent decades the growing participation of women in the labour market has reduced the gender employment gap, however a notable gender pay gap still persists standing at around 15% on average in the European Union. In this context, this paper evaluates the impact of economic growth patterns on the evolution of gender employment and pay gaps. First, sectorial feminization, direct discrimination, and structural change factors are identified and evaluated as ways to explain changes observed in the gender pay gap. Second, we explore the influence of demand, technology, and intensity factors on the evolution of employment combining gender, skill, sectorial, and temporal perspectives. As a case study, we examine Spanish economic growth from 1980 to 2007 and the influences on the size, composition (by skill), and distribution (by sector) of female and male employment, as well as the consequences for gender gaps. Our results show that structural change contributed to reduce the gender employment gap in Spain; while the evolution of the gender pay gap is less conclusive, following a sort of inverted U-shape. This paper shows the suitability and potential of the multisectorial input–output framework to analyse structural and technological changes and their impacts on the gender employment and pay gaps.     

A decomposition formula for option prices in the Heston model and applications to option pricing approximation

By means of classical It? calculus, we decompose option prices as the sum of the classical Black?CScholes formula, with volatility parameter equal to the root-mean-square future average volatility, plus a term due to correlation and a term due to the volatility of the volatility. This decomposition allows us to develop first- and second-order approximation formulas for option prices and implied volatilities in the Heston volatility framework, as well as to study their accuracy for short maturities. Numerical examples are given.     

Forecasting Tail Risks

This paper presents an early warning system as a set of multi‐period forecasts of indicators of tail real and financial risks obtained using a large database of monthly US data for the period 1972:1–2014:12. Pseudo‐real‐time forecasts are generated from: (a) sets of autoregressive and factor‐augmented vector autoregressions (VARs), and (b) sets of autoregressive and factor‐augmented quantile projections. Our key finding is that forecasts obtained with AR and factor‐augmented VAR forecasts significantly underestimate tail risks, while quantile projections deliver fairly accurate forecasts and reliable early warning signals for tail real and financial risks up to a 1‐year horizon. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.