RETROSPECTIVE ON OIL PRICES

Energy is the most abundant resource in the universe. While energy supplies are unbounded, useful energy is not. To convert naturally occurring energy resources into useful work, mankind must invest capital and labor–resources that normally are scarce. To produce or use primary energy, both producers and consumers must invest in specialized and often inflexible equipment. In calculating the perceived value of present and future oil supplies, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and almost everyone else mistook for economic rent the windfall profits associated with short-term rigidities in energy use. Attention focused on the cost of manufacturing a synthetic crude oil, rather than on the incremental cost of changing consumption patterns in end-use markets. Mis judgments on the future value of oil were compounded by ill-conceived government policies and inaccurate forecasts. Substitution of oil for other energy commodities can occur at nearly every point along the chain downstream from the production of primary resources, but it occurs most abundantly and importantly at the point of final consumption. Liquid petroleum remains the cheapest fuel to transport, chiefly because a vast infrastructure already exists to handle it. The steady advance of technology explains the long-term decline in the real prices of most products, including retail energy prices. Often, the increasing unit costs of harvesting or extracting a finite scarce natural resource have been more than offset by improvements in manufacturing or end-use technology. The mix of commodities bought and sold in the next generation may be unrecognizable to today's consumer. Thus, the cost of any one primary resource or intermediate product may be irrelevant.     

What Do Management Earnings Forecasts Convey About the Macroeconomy?

We decompose quantitative management earnings forecasts into macroeconomic and firm‐specific components to determine the extent to which voluntary disclosure provided by management has macroeconomic information content. We provide evidence that the forecasts of bellwether firms, which are defined as firms in which macroeconomic news explains the greatest amount of variation in the forecasts, provide timely information to the market about the macroeconomy when bundled with earnings announcements. Further, we show that bellwether firms provide timely information about both industry‐specific events and broader economic events. Finally, we document that the macroeconomic news in individual forecasts is more pronounced for bad news and point forecasts.     

Event Day 0? After‐Hours Earnings Announcements

In recent years, the proportion of after-hours earnings announcements has increased to more than 40%. For after-hours announcements, earnings-related volume and price changes are not observed on the Compustat or I/B/E/S earnings announcement date, but one trading day later. This study demonstrates the importance of accounting for after-hours announcements for event studies around earnings announcements.     

Optimal Fines under Announced and Surprise Inspections

This paper examines optimal fines in a regulatory framework where the regulator can choose either surprise or announced inspections to monitor a firm for compliance. The firm can invest in detection avoidance, but it receives a fine if the regulator discovers that it is noncompliant. In the welfare maximization problem, we focus on the trade‐off between the frequency of inspections and the magnitude of the fine. We find that when inspections are unannounced, the optimal fine is maximal, but when they are announced, the optimal fine may be less than maximal.     

Optimal Incentives with State‐Dependent Preferences

In both experimental and natural settings, incentives sometimes underperform, generating smaller effects on the targeted behaviors than would be predicted for entirely self‐regarding agents. A parsimonious explanation is that incentives that appeal to self‐regarding economic motives may crowd out noneconomic motives such as altruism, reciprocity, intrinsic motivation, ethical values, and other social preferences, leading to disappointing and sometimes even counterproductive incentive effects. We present evidence from behavioral experiments that crowding may take two forms: categorical (the effect on preferences depends only on the presence or absence of the incentive) or marginal (the effect depends on the extent of the incentive). We extend an earlier contribution (Bowles and Hwang, 2008 ) to include categorical crowding, thus providing a more general framework for the study of optimal incentives and as a result, an expanded range of situations for which the sophisticated planner will (surprisingly) make greater use of incentives when incentives crowd out social preferences than when motivational crowding is absent.     

A Comparative‐Advantage Approach to Government Debt Maturity

We study optimal government debt maturity in a model where investors derive monetary services from holding riskless short‐term securities. In a setting where the government is the only issuer of such riskless paper, it trades off the monetary premium associated with short‐term debt against the refinancing risk implied by the need to roll over its debt more often. We extend the model to allow private financial intermediaries to compete with the government in the provision of short‐term money‐like claims. We argue that, if there are negative externalities associated with private money creation, the government should tilt its issuance more toward short maturities, thereby partially crowding out the private sector's use of short‐term debt.     

A survey of commercial laundry detergents – how effective are they? Part I: powders

The effectiveness of 11 non-phosphate containing powdered detergents and 12 phosphate containing powdered detergents, of varying formulations, in cleaning a standard soiled fabric in soft water (5 ppm) were evaluated. It was found that in soft water there were no differences between washing with either phosphate or non-phosphate detergent. In general, washing with detergents which contained phosphates did give somewhat better results in warm water. Detergents that contained bleach as an additive did not result in a whiter fabric.     

The Treatment of Non-Recurring Items in the Income Statement and their Consistency with FASB Concept Statements

This study provides evidence on the consistency of Accounting Principles Board Statement No. 30 (APB, 1973) classification criteria with the objectives of the Financial Accounting Standards Board's Concept Statements Nos 1 and 2 (FASB, 1978, 1980). It is hypothesized that the current APB 30 requirement to classify items of a non-recurring nature in the operating section of the income statement decreases the predictive ability of income before extraordinary items. A random sample of 50 firms with non-recurring adjustments to income, which were included in the operating section of the income statement, was selected from Standard and Poor's Corporation Records. Naive models were used to generate earnings per share forecasts for the year in which the adjustment to income occurred, the prior year and subsequent year.
The results indicate a statistically significant decrease in the predictive ability of earnings per share before extraordinary items associated with the year that the adjustment occurred and a significant increase in the variability of earnings per share. Also, differences in predictive ability were noted between small and large firms and firms with positive and negative adjustments to income.
The results of this study also imply that the managers of most firms with negative adjustments to income are not using the adjustments to smooth income for either the purpose of decreasing the variability of earnings or increasing predictability. The results are more consistent with the 'big bath' theory. These conclusions appear to be more relevant for smaller firms than larger firms.