COSTLY INTERMEDIATION AND THE POVERTY OF NATIONS*

This article has two goals: (i) to reduce the 7‐fold productivity differential required to explain the observed 33‐fold income difference between the richest and poorest countries of the world; and (ii) to explain cross‐country differences in the capital‐output ratio. To achieve the first goal we modify the production function of the standard neoclassical growth model to include public capital whose provision is subject to intermediation costs. For the second goal we distort private investment by introducing credit frictions. The model, quantified using cross‐country data, generates an income gap of 33 with productivity differences of only 3 under the measured variations in public and private capital. The required productivity gap declines even further, to 2.1, when we introduce a home‐production sector. On the second goal, however, credit frictions do a poor job of explaining cross‐country variations in the capital‐output ratio.     

Relative Emission Standard versus Tax under Oligopoly: The Role of Free Entry

We compare the effects of an emission tax, and those of a relative emission standard, on welfare and pollution levels under oligopolistic market structures. We consider the cases where the number of firms is fixed and where there is free entry and exit of firms. When the number of firms is fixed, (i) a relative emission standard is welfare-superior to an emission-equivalent emission tax, and (ii) an emission tax is emission-superior to a welfare-equivalent relative emission standard. Under free entry and exit, the results are just the opposite when the inverse demand function is concave.     

A tale of two states: Maharashtra and West Bengal

In this paper we study the decline of West Bengal relative to Maharashtra, historically two of the most important states of India. In 1960, West Bengal's per capita income exceeded that of Maharashtra, the third richest state at the time. By 1993, it had fallen to just 69 percent of Maharashtra's per capita income. We employ a “wedge” methodology based on the first order conditions of a multi-sector neoclassical growth model to ascertain the output and factor market sources of the divergent economic performances. Our diagnostic analysis reveals that a large part of West Bengal's development woes can be attributed to: (a) low sectoral productivity, especially in manufacturing and services; and (b) sectoral misallocation in labor markets between the manufacturing sector and the other sectors of the economy. We also present evidence on the labor market, the manufacturing sector, and public infrastructure that suggest a systematic worsening of the business environment in West Bengal during this period.     

Input Intensity: A Missing Link between Production,Trade Patterns,and Environmental Standards

Trade and production implications of a change in environmental policy using the 2 × 2 Heckscher–Ohlin framework are identified. For otherwise identical economies a difference of environmental policy standards generates two effects: the “effective‐endowment effect” where the abatement activity uses up some resources of the economy leaving less for the production of the final goods and the “factor‐price effect” where changes in the abatement requirement affects factor prices that in turn affect production. The direction and relative strengths of these two effects determine whether production and trade patterns are consistent with or opposite to the pollution haven expectation.     

Endogenous skill heterogeneity and inflation

This paper examines the implications of ex ante skill heterogeneity for long run inflation. We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model in which there are two types of labor (skilled and unskilled), two types of capital (human and physical), and money is introduced via a cash in advance constraint on consumption purchases. Skill heterogeneity is characterized in terms of (i) a parameter governing the ease with which the two types of labor can be substituted for each other in production; and (ii) the “productivity” of human capital in the production of skill. The model includes the accumulation of human capital which in turn creates skill heterogeneity among workers through an efficiency wage mechanism. Numerical experiments indicate that there is a range of parameter estimates in which the Friedman Rule may not be optimal. Furthermore, our quantitative experiments also indicate that there is a range of parameter values in which a greater degree of skill heterogeneity may be associated with a greater preference for inflation. Empirically, we also find that the inflation and heterogeneity correlation is positive.     

A note on the underestimation and overestimation in stochastic input-output models

Here we show that (i) the Leontief inverse (I – A)^-1 is underestimated when the elements of A, the fixed coefficient input–output matrix, are biproportionally stochastic, and (ii) the output vector in a non-linear input–output system is overestimated when the final demand vector is stochastic.     

Bilateral war in a multilateral world: carrots and sticks for conflict resolution

Abstract.  This paper constructs a three-country, specific-factor, trade-theoretic model in which two of the countries are in conflict and where war effort is determined endogenously in a Nash equilibrium. The third country does not take part in the war, but trades with the warring countries. In the framework, we examine, inter alia, how war and welfare are affected by globalization and by two instruments available to the third country – one carrot and one stick. Our overall conclusion is that the third parties do have the incentives for, and can play an effective role in, conflict resolution. JEL classification: F02, F11, H56, H77     

Rational expectations and the short-run Phillips curves

The purpose of the present paper is to study certain derivable implications of the rational expectations hypothesis (REH) in the context of a simultaneous wage-price model of the U.S. economy and to subject the REH to statistical tests. The empirical evidence indicates that implementation of the REH in the context of these models does wipe out the conventional short-run Phillips curves, and the assumption that public expectations of future rates of inflation are true conditional mathematical expectations based on all available information is indeed borne out quite well against its alternatives.