Donor Strategy under the Fungibility of Foreign Aid

We develop a political–economic model of aid fungibility: a part of aid is diverted away from its intended target by lobby groups. The size of this diversion – the degree of aid fungibility – is determined endogenously by the recipient government. The donor can affect the equilibrium degree of fungibility by choosing both the size of aid and the timing of its decision. We derive a condition under which the donor's reaction to fungibility is to reduce the amount of aid. Under this condition, if the donor acts as a follower, both the donor and the target group are better off.     

Managing internationalization and innovation tradeoffs in entrepreneurial firms: Evidence from transition economies

For entrepreneurial firms (EFs), internationalization and innovation present two major avenues for growth. Prior research, based primarily on EFs from advanced economies, demonstrates mixed insights for the relationship between these strategies. A deeper understanding of the tradeoffs involved in the internationalization-innovation relationship may help better comprehend the issue. In this study, we draw on the organizational learning and capabilities-based literatures to examine the relationship in the context of EFs in transition economies (EFTEs). Our findings suggest that in EFTEs, internationalization is negatively associated with the likelihood of innovation. We also find that three knowledge-based capabilities of EFTEs (absorptive capacity, appropriation capability, and managerial capability) positively moderate the aforementioned negative relationship. We do not find any evidence of reverse causality (EFTE innovation impacting internationalization). Our research provides novel insights to the IE literature by shedding light on the internationalization–innovation tradeoffs that EFTEs experience.     

On the constancy of real interest rates

In the context of a small structural model, we show that the autocorrelation and the variance of the ex ante real rate of interest can be uniquely estimated; the random forecasting errors need not confound the problem of identifying variations in the real rate.     

On maximum likelihood estimation of functional form and heteroskedasticity

The maximum-likelihood procedure has been developed to estimate the Box-Cox functional form parameter and the degree of heteroskedasticity simultaneously. By using an illustrative example, it is shown the likelihood ratio tests conditional on homoskedastic prior can sometimes yield misleading results.     

International joint ventures and tax competition in an integrated market

The purpose of this paper is two-fold. First, it develops a theoretical model of international joint ventures to suggest a new approach to the determination of profit allocation between the partners in the joint venture. Second, we examine the issue of tax competition between two countries for an international joint venture. We find that even in the absence of any bargaining power for the domestic firms, the foreign firm would like to give up more than half of profits to its partner. Furthermore, the foreign firm would like to locate in a country in which the partner firm is more efficient. We also find, with numerical simulations, that the domestic firm will accept the joint venture if the foreign firm's technology is significantly more superior than its own.     

Remittances and income diversification in Bolivia’s rural sector

This article examines the role of remittances in income diversification strategies in Bolivia’s rural sector. Remittances can be consumed or invested by the recipient. As an investment, funds can be used for farming or to finance other nonfarm productions. In this article, we use a large and nationally representative survey to estimate the effect that remittances have on the probability of producing income from nonfarm activities (diversification) by using a bivariate probit model. Our evidence shows that remittances increase the probability that a rural family engages in nonfarm activities, at least in some regions of Bolivia. We also find evidence that the sender’s decision to remit and the recipient’s decision to diversify may be jointly determined. As such, this suggests that remittances may serve as a mechanism to overcome localized failures in Bolivia’s capital markets.     

Promoting Trade Liberalization: Theoretical Analysis of Foreign Aid as Prize

We investigate whether foreign aid can be used to induce trade policy reforms. We develop a two‐period political economic model where promise of aid in period 2 depends on chosen tariff in period 1. We consider three scenarios depending on whether the donor is passive/active and whether the two governments move simultaneously or sequentially. We find a sufficient condition for unconditional aid to increase the level of optimal tariff, and the possibility of unconditional aid increasing optimal tariff decreases when the donor is active rather than passive.     

Profit Share and Partner Choice in International Joint Ventures

This paper suggests a new approach to the determination of profit allocation between the partners in international joint ventures (IJVs). We also examine the issue of partnership choice. The foreign firm gives a large share of profits to its partner and in return receives a better tax treatment from the host government. Under linearity of costs and demand functions, it would choose the more efficient domestic firm as an IJV partner, and the domestic firms would happily accept the offer of partnership from the foreign firm. However, the host government, under certain situations, may persuade the foreign firm, by a suitable lump‐sum transfer, to form a partnership with the less efficient firm.     

Nowcasting US GDP: The role of ISM business surveys

We study the role of the well-known monthly diffusion indices produced by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) in nowcasting current quarter US GDP growth. In contrast to the existing literature on ISM surveys, we investigate their marginal impact on these nowcasts when large unbalanced (jagged edge) macroeconomic data sets are used to generate them in real time. We find evidence that these ISM indices are helpful in improving the nowcasts when new ISM information becomes available at the beginning of the month, ahead of other monthly indicators. Furthermore, while the existing literature has focused almost exclusively on manufacturing information, here we establish the increasingly significant role of the recently created non-manufacturing ISM diffusion indices in such nowcasting contexts.