Potential Beneficiaries from Reverse Mortgage Products for Elderly Homeowners: An Analysis of American Housing Survey Data

A variety of reverse mortgage loan programs have been available to elderly households for over a decade. The number of unrestricted reverse mortgage loans issued by the private sector has been quite small. About 12,000 loans have been issued through mid-1992. Some researchers take this to mean that the size of the potential market for reverse mortgages is also quite small. Other researchers claim that current low levels of activity reflect supply and demand problems, but that the potential market is in fact quite large. This paper uses American Housing Survey (AHS) data to estimate the potential size of the market for unrestricted reverse mortgages. The 1989 national AHS shows that there are over twelve million elderly homeowners (age 62 and over) who own their homes free and clear. Depending on their income, age and the level of home equity, the group of households most likely to benefit from reverse annuity mortgages is considerably smaller. As one approach to defining a lower bound of the estimate of potential beneficiaries from reverse mortgages, we count the number of homeowners in a prime group consisting of the older elderly, aged 70 or above, with an annual income of $30,000 or less, with home equity between $100,000 and $200,000, who have lived in their homes for over ten years. We estimate that there are about 800,000 elderly households in this prime group. For such households, reverse mortgage payments could represent a substantial percentage increase in income; other definitions of target groups can also be explored using the tables provided. The paper uses the 1985 through 1988 AHS Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) surveys to identify areas that have a large number of elderly homeowners in the prime target group, and in which these homeowners represent a large fraction of the elderly homeowner population. These locations are likely targets for introduction of reverse mortgage products because any campaign can be targeted towards a high concentration of likely eligible beneficiaries.     

Alternate scenario planning

Although a number of organizations are attempting to add flexibility to their planning efforts by using Alternate Scenario Planning techniques, formal methodologies for preparing appropriate scenario sets are only now being developed. One 12-step scenario set generation technique is described in this article, and a particular application of the technique by a government-industry-university team is discussed.     

Integrated assessment of public investment in land-use change to protect environmental assets in Australia

A framework for comprehensive integrated assessment of environmental projects is developed and applied in partnership with a regional environmental body. The framework combines theory with practice, bringing a pragmatic and efficient approach to the rigorous assessment of projects for a large number of environmental assets in the north central region of the state of Victoria, Australia. The approach is codified as the Investment Framework for Environmental Resources (INFFER). The analysis assisted the environmental body to make strong business cases for a number of environmental projects, resulting in funding for those projects. Key features of the study include extensive participation of decision makers and stakeholders, integration of a comprehensive set of information about projects, explicit assessment of uncertainties and information gaps, and analysis of the most appropriate policy mechanism for each project. The process of applying the framework involved four steps: identification of around 300 important environmental assets in the region, filtering the list of assets to remove those that are less likely to provide opportunities for cost-effective public investment, development and detailed assessment of projects for a subset of assets, and negotiation of funding for projects. Implications for land-use policy include that environmental projects vary widely in their cost-effectiveness, requiring careful targeting of funds if environmental benefits are to be maximised. Many existing environmental programs use simplistic analyses to support decision making, resulting in missed opportunities for substantially greater environmental benefits. Promoting adoption of improved analytical methods is very challenging, requiring changes in mind-set and culture in environmental organisations. Widespread adoption is unlikely unless funders create incentives by rewarding those project proponents who undertake rigorous and comprehensive project assessments that focus on achievement of environmental outcomes.     

A model of wine tourist behaviour: a festival approach

The study constructs a temporal model of wine tourist behaviour on the basis of the social psychologist' theory of consumer attitudes and related concepts with regard to past behaviour, satisfaction, perceived value and behavioural intentions. More importantly, this study added two dimensions to this model by proposing that satisfaction and perceived value had an impact on the attendees' intentions (i) to visit a local winery and (ii) to buy local wine products. Using a path analysis approach and data collected from the attendees at a regional wine festival, the study examined the above relationships. The results of this path analysis can be summarised as: (i) past behaviour influenced the intention to revisit and the level of perceived value, but had no effect on the level of satisfaction; (ii) perceived value strongly affected the level of satisfaction; (iii) satisfaction had a strong impact on future intentions to revisit and also an effect on intentions to visit local wineries and to buy local wine products; and (iv) perceived value affected the intentions to revisit the festival and to visit local wineries but did not influence the intentions to buy local wines. It is believed that the results of the present study will be useful to organisers of wine festivals and/or wine tourism developers. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

What Do Deviations from Covered Interest Parity and Higher FX Hedging Costs Mean for Asia?

Open Economies Review - Asian countries have high demand for US dollars and are sensitive to US dollar funding costs. An important, but often overlooked, component of these costs is the basis...     

From the Soviet Union to the European Union: Estonian Trade Policy, 1991–2000

This paper examines the political economy of Estonian trade policy in the 1990s. Estonia is a unique case in the world economy, in that the country rapidly implemented unilateral free trade after regaining independence and sustained it right through the 1990s. We analyse the circumstances, interests, ideas and institutions that have shaped Estonian trade policy during the past decade. Our stress is on institutions, particularly the national decision‐making setting for trade policy. Through this prism we try to understand how a free trade regime was implemented and sustained, and what this experience suggests for the feasibility of tree trade elsewhere. We also look at the increasingly ‘multi‐track’ nature of Estonian trade policy through bilateral free trade agreements, WTO accession and, especially, the movement towards EU accession. Although the other trade policy tracks to some extent provide a lockin for unilateral reforms, we argue that EU accession is undermining the simple, classical liberal trade policy regime that existed during the 1990s.     

Adolescent risk perception,substance use,and educational attainment

This paper studies whether adolescents who are more aware of the risks on substance use in the early teenage years are later less likely to turn into binge drinkers or smokers. It also examines if reduction in substance use, due to high risk perception among adolescents, consequently improves their educational achievement. This research is important for two reasons. First, enhancing risk perception of substance use is an important strategy to prevent the youth from binge drinking and smoking. Second, adolescent substance use and educational achievement are key predictors of adulthood outcomes. We apply a bivariate probit model to a large representative dataset which codes youth risk perception, substance use, and educational attainment. The analysis shows high risk perception lowers the likelihood of substance use among the high school seniors. The resulting low alcohol use increases the chance of attending college and decreases the probability of dropping out of high school. The reduction in cigarette use caused by high risk perception has a similar effect on such two educational outcomes. It also increases high school graduation by 22%. Overall, this study suggests that enhancing recognition on the hazards of substance use is an effective policy intervention to reduce adolescent binge drinking and smoking, as well as improve educational attainment.     

Nonlinear incentives and mortgage officers’ decisions

In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, banks should ensure that their incentive compensation policies appropriately balance long-term risk with short-term rewards. Using daily output data from mortgage officers in a US commercial bank, we test the notion that nonlinear contracts create time-varying incentives for the employees and impose costs on the firm. We provide empirical evidence that mortgage officers greatly increase their output toward the end of each month, when the minimum monthly quota is assessed. This occurs through a combination of reducing the processing time and approving some marginal applications. We also find that mortgages originated on the last working day of the month have a higher likelihood of delinquency.     

A role for public procurement in system innovation: the transformation of the Greater Manchester (UK) waste system

The transformation of socio-technical systems to more sustainable states is more policy induced than market driven. Reflecting this, the potential for governments to direct system transformation has been widely debated. However, this debate concentrates on supply side policies and under analyses the potential for public buyers to steer system innovation. This paper draws from ideas on system innovation, transition management and public procurement to explore how a major public buyer was able to do just this. The paper describes the transformation of the Greater Manchester (UK) waste system from a relatively simple landfill model to a highly complex, multi-technology solution of intensive recycling, composting and energy production. The paper draws three main conclusions: (1) it is possible to orchestrate system innovation through public procurement in certain circumstances; (2) this involves developing the required interdependencies between technologies, institutions and practices; (3) system transformation can be orchestrated from within the incumbent regime.