International Monetary and Financial Arrangements: Present and Future

The paper deals with a broad range of topics under the rubric of the international monetary system: exchange rate agreements, International Monetary Fund structure, history and functioning of the European Monetary Union, monetary and fiscal policies adopted in recent years by different countries, with a special emphasis on central bank independence and inflation control, capital flows and cross-border assets growth and their influence on financial stability, and policy proposals to enhance financial stability. With more than four-fifths of world trade conducted under managed or full flexibility the present system can be regarded more as a flexible than a fixed exchange rate regime. EMU is a major institutional innovation; while its economic benefits have been amply discussed and perhaps exaggerated, the economic costs seem to have been underestimated. Financial liberalization has resulted in huge benefits to savers and borrowers as capital has tended to flow to its most productive uses around the world, but it has also led to fears that this has sharply reduced the effectiveness of monetary policy. This liberalization imposes a constraint on monetary policy in the sense that it forces a much higher degree of economic convergence than was true before.     

The Simpson paradox of school grading in Italy

Data from the 2003 OECD-PISA Survey for Italy reveal a striking difference in the relationship between students’ competence (as measured by PISA score in Mathematics) and school grades across regions: a competence level granting bare sufficiency in the North yields excellence grades in the South. This has spurred a lively debate on education policy in the country, based on the inference drawn from this evidence that grading practices are excessively different in the two areas. We show in this note that this inference overlooks a Simpson paradox hidden in the data. After a more careful analysis, the above inference is seen to be wrong. The crucial omitted variable is the school-level average competence: schools with low-performing students, all over the country, inflate grades. Students in the South get higher grades simply because they are in weaker schools; grading policy is actually homogeneous across regions.     

A simultaneous equations model of internal migration with dynamic policy simulations and forecasting: Italy, 1952-1976

The purpose of this study is to determine, with a dynamic simultaneous equations model, the relative importance of the most significant socioeconomic forces leading to the large-scale labor migration from the South to the North of Italy from 1952 to 1976, and to analyze its implications for the past and prospective development of the South. The model is estimated by Full Information Maximum Likelihood, validated by dynamic simulation, stressing dynamic policy simulations, and also presenting the results of some forecasting.     

A Comparison between Formal and Informal Mutual‐credit Arrangements

We analyze under what conditions a group of potential entrepreneurs prefer to form a Rotating Savings and Credit Association (ROSCA), or a mutual‐guarantee association, which we interpret in a rotating scheme and call Rotating Savings and Collateral Association (ROSCoA). We argue that: (1) ROSCAs (ROSCoAs) are likely to be more developed in countries with high (low) bank concentration; (2) the individual flow of savings required to participate in a ROSCoA is generally lower than that needed in a ROSCA; (3) under the assumption that members share their project income at the end of each period, ROSCAs and ROsCoAs are sustainable even without the use of sanctioning mechanisms.     

Die Reform der Erbschaftsteuer – eine erste Bewertung

Eine Arbeitsgruppe von Bund und L?ndern unter Leitung von Bundesfinanzminister Steinbrück und Ministerpr?sident Koch hat sich nach langen Verhandlungen Anfang November auf eine Reform der Erbschaftsteuer geeinigt. Welchen Grunds?tzen folgt die Neuregelung? Welche Freibetr?ge und Tarife sind vorgesehen? Wie wird künftig das Betriebsverm?gen behandelt? Denis Alt, 27, Dipl.-Volkswirt, arbeitet in der Grundsatzgruppe des Ministeriums der Finanzen Rheinland-Pfalz. Der Autor gibt hier seine pers?nliche Auffassung wieder. Dr. Salvatore Barbaro, 33, vertritt derzeit die Professur für Finanzwissenschaft an der Johannes Gutenberg-Universit?t Mainz.     

Optimal Exit Policy with Uncertain Demand*

In a framework where entrants must make sunk investment decisions with uncertain returns and have private demand information, we show that the relationship between innovation and exit value is non-monotone and features an inverted U-shaped pattern. Consumer surplus is maximised at the lowest exit value that incentivises the investment. These insights are applied to optimal merger policy. An entrant is more willing to innovate to be acquired afterwards, even if it has no bargaining power. This innovation-for-buyout effect implies that an entrant is less likely to leave the market under a lenient than a strict merger policy.     

Study of Consumer Preferences in Regard to the Blonde Orange Cv. Washington Navel “Arancia Di Ribera PDO”

Consumers’ attitude and preferences in regard to food ingredients, country of origin, social corporate responsibility toward the environment, and work conditions have changed over the last 10 years. Consumers are getting more educated and therefore more sensitive around cultivation practices in agriculture and food processing, which increases concerns in regard to production practices in agriculture. Several studies have been conducted on consumers’ preferences about quality food, but not with regard to blonde oranges cv. Washington Navel cultivated in southern Italy. This quality fruit is a niche product that achieved the Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) certification for high organoleptic properties and fine taste. In this study, by a survey of 400 Italian consumers, we discovered preferences in regard to the cv. Washington Navel PDO (Riberella) attributes and revealed variables that may influence consumers’ purchasing behavior. Cluster analysis, based on respondents’ rates on 20 attributes, revealed preference segmentation. Freshness, taste, and origin were the most important attributes for consumers, following visual appearance and quality/price ratio. In responding to the demands of consumers for quality fresh fruit, information about quality standards and about the Riberella PDO is poor. Therefore, there may be potential to develop specific policies and marketing strategies to product the position in the international market.     

The impact of public guarantees on credit to SMEs

This article provides an in-depth evaluation of the impact of public credit guarantees to SMEs in increasing credit availability and reducing borrowing costs, without compromising their financial sustainability. Extensive econometric tests have been carried out by comparing the performance of the SMEs that benefited from such guarantees in Italy with a sample of comparable firms. The findings confirm the presence of a causal relationship between the public guarantee and the higher debt leverage of guaranteed firms, as well as their lower debt cost. Italy’s guarantee instrument has proved to be an effective instrument in these respects.

Jumpstarting the use of social technologies in your organization

How do you get your organization to start using social technologies to become more innovative and productive? Where and with whom should you begin? We interviewed over 70 managers across 30 companies and found that the most successful firms employ one of three jumpstart strategies, depending on the organization's mission, work processes, culture, and industry. Some start at the bottom of the organization, finding and enabling ‘young experimenters’ to use social technologies to enhance their individual productivity. Others start in the middle, finding and helping ‘corporate entrepreneurs’ in middle management to use social technologies to improve collaboration on teams and projects. Others begin at the top, finding ‘enlightened executives’ who are open to new technology and the potential of social tools to strengthen their organizational culture. We combine our research with concepts from change management, technology adoption, and social networks to suggest ways managers can best introduce social collaboration tools into their organizations.