Robustness of Forecasting Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies with Data Revisions—A Note

Data revisions routinely introduced by the World Bank can lead to significant revisions in empirical results. We show this by re-estimating our aggregate indicator for predicting the 1997 Asian crisis utilizing the 1999 and 2004 updates of the 1996 World Bank data and comparing these results to those we obtained (this Journal, 2000) for predicting the same event using the original, unrevised, 1996 World Bank data. Since most data-gathering organizations routinely revise their data, this may represent a much greater problem for policy makers than might be recognized.     

An econometric model of internal migration and development: extensions and tests

The author extends a previous work on migration in Italy "from 1958-1976 to 1958-1981, tests for the stability of the model and its coefficients, and uses the model for policy simulations and forecasting. The model performs as well over the extended sample period as over the original period and, even more important..., the model is found to be quite stable. This is remarkable in view of the economic turmoil that characterized the years by which the original sample period was extended."     

On Crop Biodiversity, Risk Exposure, and Food Security in the Highlands of Ethiopia

This paper investigates the effects of crop genetic diversity on farm productivity and production risk in the highlands of Ethiopia. Using a moment-based approach, the analysis uses a stochastic production function capturing mean, variance, and skewness effects. Welfare implications of diversity are evaluated using a certainty equivalent, measured as expected income minus a risk premium (reflecting the cost of risk). We find that the effect of diversity on skewness dominates its effect on variance, meaning that diversity reduces the cost of risk. The analysis also shows that the beneficial effects of diversity become of greater value in degraded land.     

Crop genetic diversity, farm productivity and the management of environmental risk in rainfed agriculture

This paper presents an assessment of the linkages between cropgenetic diversity, farm productivity and risk management. Aflexible moment-based approach is used to analyse the impactof crop genetic diversity on the mean, variance and skewnessof yield. Using farm-level data from Sicily (Italy), econometricevidence shows how crop genetic diversity can increase farmproductivity and reduce risk exposure. The empirical resultsindicate that crop genetic diversity can reduce variance, butonly if pesticide use is low. Furthermore, high diversity levelscan reduce downside risk exposure (e.g. the risk of crop failure).This provides useful insights on the linkages between resilienceand crop genetic diversity.     

Limits to creative destruction and technologies in practice: the case of ham radio

Drawing on the structurationist notion of ‘technologies-in-practice’, this article analyses the different types of technological actions that users perform, after technological change, in order to keep a declining technology alive over time. The research question of the article is: How do technologies-in-practice based on the application of new technology hamper the creative destruction of old technology? The case study of ham radio technology and amateur radio operators is explored. The results of the investigation support the development of a technology-in-practice ‘experimentation’ and four inductive research propositions.     

Design principles for long‐lived Internet agents

Prior research on intelligent Internet agents has failed to address the needs of long‐lived data‐collecting agents, focusing instead on short‐lived transaction agents. Transaction agents typically run for a few seconds and retrieve information for a single transaction. With the staggering growth of electronic commerce, researchers and practitioners will want to design long‐lived data‐collecting agents that intelligently search for, retrieve, interpret, categorize, and store vast amounts of related information each time that they run. Such agents can run over the course of days rather than seconds and can be used by practitioners for decision support applications or by researchers as part of an empirical research methodology. This paper proposes a framework for agent sophistication, and emphasizes a number of design concepts for long‐lived Internet agents, including intelligence, validation, concurrency, recovery, monitoring, and interactivity. These concepts are used in the development of an illustrative tool called Electronic Data Retrieval LexicaL Agent (eDRILL), an object‐oriented data‐collecting agent. eDRILL is designed using the Unified Modeling Language (UML) and is written in Java. It gathers research data from an online auction. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How limiting deceptive practices harms consumers

There are two competing sellers of an experience good, one offers high quality, one low. The low‐quality seller can engage in deceptive advertising, potentially fooling a buyer into thinking the product is better than it is. Although deceptive advertising might seem to harm the buyer, we show that he could be better off when the low‐quality seller can engage in deceptive advertising than not. We characterize the optimal deterrence rule that a regulatory agency seeking to punish deceptive practices should adopt. We show that greater protection against deceptive practices does not necessarily improve the buyer welfare.