Exchange Rate Regimes and Inflation: Evidence from India

Abstract

Exchange rate stability is crucial for inflation management as a stable rate is expected to reduce domestic inflation pressures through a ‘policy discipline effect’ – restricting money supply growth, and a ‘credibility effect’ – inducing higher money demand and reduced velocity of money. Alternatively, the ‘impossibility trillema’ of Mundell (1961a Mundell, R. A. (1961a). Capital mobility and stabilization policy under fixed and flexible exchange rates. Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science, 29, 475–485. doi: 10.2307/139336[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], 1961b Mundell, R. A. (1961b). Flexible exchange rates and employment policy. Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science, 27, 509–517. doi: 10.2307/139437[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) predicts that in the presence of an open capital account, a stable exchange rate may lead to lack of control on monetary policy and, hence, higher inflation. Using a monetary model of Inflation, this paper investigates the impact of the ‘empirically-claimed’ de facto stable exchange rate regime on inflation in India during different sub-periods of exchange rate stability. The results show that the impact of exchange rate regime on inflation is not visible in the Indian case, which could be because of the offsetting sterilization policy undertaken by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) during expansionary money supply growth resulting from its large-scale intervention to even out exchange rate volatility.     

Food security and government interventions: A study of Indian grain markets

Abstract

This study examines the future of Indian food security in light of possible liberalization of its agriculture sector. Demand for major food grains such as wheat and rice is projected after taking into account possible dietary changes due to income growth, urbanization and other demographic changes. Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) indicators are constructed to predict changes in supply patterns in the case of reduced government intervention. The projected demand growth suggests faster increases in per capita wheat consumption due to strong income growth and urbanization whereas per capita rice consumption is projected to level off in the next few years and then will likely decline steadily for the remainder of the projection period. This indicates that Indian wheat production may need to grow at a much faster rate than rice production in order to remain self-sufficient in the future. Based on the PAM ranking, this may be possible under reduced or no government interventions because of the comparative advantage of wheat over rice in the major growing regions.     

The effects of local labour market conditions on welfare programme participation

A fractional imputation method is applied to Iowa administrative data to deal with a problem of missing data. The effects of local labour market conditions and mobility of household heads on Family Investment Program (FIP) participation are evaluated. Results show that mobility increases the opportunity for employment and decreases the FIP participation rate for low-income families. An increase in predicted unemployment rates decreases labour force participation and increases programme participation; an increase in unpredicted unemployment rates increases labour force participation and decreases programme participation. Overall, the effects are relatively larger in rural areas than in nonrural areas in Iowa.     

Step-by-step computation of corrected asymptotic variance-covariance matrices of two-stage estimators in a simultaneous equations model with a mixture of four continuous and binary dependent variables

The current study presents easily computable formulas for asymptotic variance-covariance matrices of the two-stage estimators in a simultaneous equation model with a mixture of four continuous and binary dependent variables. For the sake of econometrics practitioners, the study uses an illustrative example from the current literature and demonstrates step-by-step computation of these variance-covariance matrices by using the matrix routine of a popular econometric software.     

Do Banks Follow Their Customers Abroad?

The market share of US business loans made by foreign‐owned banks has increased dramatically since 1980. At the same time, foreign direct investment in the US rose, so that much of the growth in foreign‐owned US‐based bank lending to businesses in the US could conceivably be accounted for by an increase in loans to the nonbank US affiliates of firms headquartered abroad, an expectation consistent with the conventional wisdom that banks "follow their customers" abroad. Our study investigates the lending patterns of US‐based banks from Japan, Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and the UK, countries that account for the vast majority of foreign bank activity in the US. Simultaneously, we look at the borrowing patterns of nonbank US affiliates of firms from those countries. We find that banks from four of the six countries (Japan, Canada, the Netherlands, and the UK) allocated a majority of their loans to non‐home‐country borrowers for some or all of the 1981–1992 period. These findings suggest that the "follow the customer" hypothesis may have a more limited applicability than previously supposed.     

The time-harried shopper: Exploring the differences between maximizers and satisficers

Schwartz and his colleagues have proposed individual differences in consumer decision goals. Maximizers are those who always strive to make the best possible decision, whereas satisficers are those who are usually willing to settle for a “good enough” option. In this study, we explore the influence of the maximizing trait in situations where consumers have to make quick purchase decisions. The context for our empirical study is online gift purchases made under a time constraint. The results support our predictions that maximizers (vs. satisficers) engage in more prepurchase browsing behavior and also perceive more decision time pressure. Furthermore, these effects are moderated by the size of the available choice assortment. The results also show that maximizers are more likely to change their initial time-constrained choices if given the opportunity to do so. We discuss the implications of the research for the study of individual differences in consumer behavior and also for customizing retail sales and Internet marketing tactics based on buyer segmentation.     

Price Asymmetry in the International Wheat Market

Most wheat exports are accounted for by a limited number of countries with different policy regimes and specializing, for the most part, in particular classes of wheat. Under these circumstances, there is likely to be considerable interaction among the major exporting countries in the determination of wheat prices. In this paper, price linkages between the U.S. and other exporting countries (Canada, the European Union, Argentina and Australia) in the world wheat market are investigated. After determining that the direction of causality is from U. S. prices to the prices of other exporting countries, the nature of the price linkages is studied. The results suggest that the major exporting countries respond asymmetrically to U.S. price changes. The degree of asymmetry differs from one exporting country to another, Argentina and the European Union show greater response to falling prices than to rising prices, while the opposite is true for Canada and Australia.     

Oil Risk Exposure: The Case of the U.S. Oil and Gas Sector

We estimate oil price risk exposures of the U.S. oil and gas sector using the Fama‐French‐Carhart's four‐factor asset pricing model augmented with oil price and interest rate factors. Results show that the market, book‐to‐market, and size factors, as well as momentum characteristics of stocks and changes in oil prices are significant determinants of returns for the sector. Oil price risk exposures of U.S. oil and gas companies in the oil and gas sector are generally positive and significant. Our study also finds that oil price risk exposures vary considerably over time, and across firms and industry subsectors.     

Asymptotic Variance–Covariance Matrices of Two-Stage Estimators in the Presence of Continuous and Binary Dependent Variables with an Empirical Application

Journal of Quantitative Economics - We develop a general procedure to derive the asymptotic variance–covariance matrices of several two-stage estimators that can be used to estimate...     

Role of psychological variables in the determination of the worker's wage: Further evidence from the United States

The current study examines the roles of three psychological variables, job satisfaction, positive attitude and self‐satisfaction, in the determination of the worker's wage. Using two samples from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youths, 1979 (NLSY79), the study for the first time models a possible simultaneous relationship among these four variables and estimates these equations by an appropriate two‐stage procedure. Our results indicate that the worker's wage is positively related to these psychological variables. This finding has important policy implications and thus it calls for future research in this direction.