Taxation, collateral use of land, and Japanese asset prices

Japan experienced a significant increase in land and stock prices in the late 1980s and a subsequent reversal in these asset prices in the 1990s. I use a neoclassical growth model to determine how much of these asset price movements can be accounted for by the observed changes in output growth and land-related taxation. In the model, corporations issue land-collateralized debt to reduce their tax liabilities, and the government follows a land-taxation policy that is countercyclical to land prices. Without these features, the model cannot generate any significant change in land values, even with a permanent increase in the growth rate of the economy, because a permanent increase in the growth rate results in a comparable increase at the rate at which agents discount future returns. The collateral use of land and countercyclical land-tax policy introduce a substantial magnification mechanism for asset prices by reducing the required return on land. I calibrate the model to Japanese data, and conduct steady-state experiments and deterministic simulations. I show that if the observed increase in the growth rate of productivity and the decline in land taxes were expected to be permanent by market participants, then the model can by and large account for the movements in land and stock prices, but has counterfactual predictions regarding the behavior of capital. If agents expect the observed changes in the fundamentals to be temporary, then the model cannot generate a significant increase in these asset prices.     

The Fed's policy decisions and implied volatility

This study examines how the Fed's monetary policy decisions affect the implied volatility of the S&P 500 index. The results show that stock market uncertainty is significantly affected by the Fed's policy decisions. In particular, we find that implied volatility generally decreases after FOMC meetings, while the relationship between target rate surprises and market uncertainty appears positive. However, our results also suggest that the apparent positive relationship between policy surprises and implied volatility is mostly driven by the volatility‐reducing effects of negative surprises. We further document that implied volatility is affected by both scheduled and unscheduled policy actions, with the scheduled path surprises having the strongest impact on volatility. Finally, our findings indicate that the impact of monetary policy decisions on implied volatility is more pronounced during periods of expansive policy. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark     

The international policies of brain gain: A review

Policymakers across OECD countries have become increasingly concerned with the national and international debate about brain drain and have launched appraisal processes of the situations in their respective countries. The debates took different turns in different countries, but nevertheless, some common issues cut across a number of countries. The issues of academic structures and traditions, legislation and management, and reputation and image have surfaced as critical factors for brain drain and brain gain. In this paper I provide a systematic analysis of the international policy debates surrounding the issue of brain drain and brain gain and make an attempt to distinguish between them by classifying them into different categories.     

Entrepreneurial Orientation,Dynamic Capabilities and International Performance

In order to be able to seize the opportunities that a dynamic operating environment opens up, entrepreneurial firms have to reconfigure their existing asset base and processes. This study explores the effect of an entrepreneurial orientation and a firm's reconfiguring capabilities on international performance by using survey data from 217 manufacturing and service organizations. Our findings indicate that a firm's entrepreneurial orientation and reconfiguring capabilities have an effect on its international performance and provide empirical support for the dynamic capability view of the firm. Entrepreneurial behavior combined with organizational reconfiguring capabilities constitutes a potential source of competitive advantage.     

FORECASTING PERFORMANCE OF AN ESTIMATED DSGE MODEL FOR THE SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY

We construct a small open‐economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for South Africa with nominal rigidities, incomplete international risk sharing and partial exchange rate pass‐through. The parameters of the model are estimated using Bayesian methods, and its out‐of‐sample forecasting performance is compared with Bayesian vector autoregression (VAR), classical VAR and random‐walk models. Our results indicate that the DSGE model generates forecasts that are competitive with those from other models, and it contributes statistically significant information to combined forecast measures.     

Cross-Listings and M&A Activity: Transatlantic Evidence

We analyze whether European firms choose to list shares in the US to facilitate acquisitions. Evidence from a sample of 547 European companies shows that cross-listed firms are significantly more active in acquiring US companies than are their domestically listed peers. This pattern holds even after we account for self-selection in the cross-listing decision. Cross-listed firms are also more likely to use equity payment in large transactions, but after taking self-selection into account, transaction size becomes the key determinant of the use of equity. After cross-listing, the proportion of aggregate M&A volume financed with equity increases.     

The Collusion-deterring Effect of Pre-attributed Supplies and the Hog Auction in Quebec

The hog/pork industry in Quebec has been going through major institutional changes since 1989, the year an electronic auction was put in place to market all of the hogs in the province. Because the auction's ability to generate high prices did not meet the expectations of hog producers, the pure auction system was replaced by a hybrid one in 1994. In this system, most of the hog supply was pre-attributed to processors at a negotiated price based on the US. price while the remainder of the provincial supply of hogs was sold through the auction. In this paper, we investigate how a seemingly inefficient marketing mechanism like pre-attributions can increase the efficiency of a usually efficient mechanism like an auction. We present theoretical arguments regarding the sustainability of collusion under the pure auction and hybrid systems in addition to analyzing auction prices with modern time series tools.     

Sensitivity analysis for applied general equilibrium models in the presence of multiple Walrasian equilibria

Summary. Pagan and Shannon's (1985) widely used approach employs local linearizations of a system of non-linear equations to obtain asymptotic distributions for the endogenous parameters (such as prices) from distributions over the exogenous parameters (such as estimates of taste, technology, or policy variables, for example). However, this approach ignores both the possibility of multiple equilibria as well as the problem (related to that of multiplicity) that critical points might be contained in the confidence interval of an exogenous parameter. We generalize Pagan and Shannon's approach to account for multiple equilibria by assuming that the choice of equilibrium is described by a random selection. We develop an asymptotic theory regarding equilibrium prices, which establishes that their probability density function is multimodal and that it converges to a weighted sum of normal density functions. An important insight is that if a model allows multiple equilibria, say , but multiplicity is ignored, then the computed solution for the i-th equilibrium generally no longer coincides with the expected value of that i-th equilibrium. The error can be large and correspond to several standard deviations of the mean's estimate. Received: December 7, 1999; revised version: December 4, 2000     

Debt renegotiation under reputation concerns and tolerance for failure

We propose a career concern model where a privately informed entrepreneur reports the firm financial situation. On this basis, the creditor may offer debt renegotiation. Due to reputation concerns, the entrepreneur may feel reluctant to restructure and may manipulate information. We analyze how creditor attitude towards failure and entrepreneurs reputation concerns interact and influence the restructuring decision. We show that debt renegotiation under more lenient conditions discourages manipulation because entrepreneurs are ensured that their reputation will not suffer from revealing financial difficulties. Intolerant creditors make entrepreneurs more concerned about reputation weakening their incentives to restructure, leading to inefficient continuation of investments.