Firm heterogeneity and credit risk diversification

This paper examines the impact of neglected heterogeneity on credit risk. We show that neglecting heterogeneity in firm returns and/or default thresholds leads to underestimation of expected losses (EL), and its effect on portfolio risk is ambiguous. Once EL is controlled for, the impact of neglecting parameter heterogeneity is complex and depends on the source and degree of heterogeneity. We show that ignoring differences in default thresholds results in overestimation of risk, while ignoring differences in return correlations yields ambiguous results. Our empirical application, designed to be typical and representative, combines both and shows that neglected heterogeneity results in overestimation of risk. Using a portfolio of U.S. firms we illustrate that heterogeneity in the default threshold or probability of default, measured for instance by a credit rating, is of first order importance in affecting the shape of the loss distribution: including ratings heterogeneity alone results in a 20% drop in loss volatility and a 40% drop in 99.9% VaR, the level to which the risk weights of the New Basel Accord are calibrated.     

INVESTOR OVEROPTIMISM AND PRIVATE EQUITY PLACEMENTS

We reexamine investor tendency to overweight recent experiences when predicting future performance of firms by examining a sample of firms making private equity placements. Our findings are consistent with the projection argument that investors use the recent experiences of other firms to predict the success of placing firms. Specifically, we find that the placements preceded by a larger number of recently very successful firms are associated with the significantly more favorable market reaction to the placement announcement and significantly poorer post‐placement stock price performance.     

Excess Volatility and UK Investment Trusts

Abstract:   The issue of whether or not asset prices are more volatile than the underlying fundamentals is an empirical question with implications for market efficiency. Recent research suggests that the volatility of closed end fund returns in the USA is significantly higher than the returns on assets held by the funds. This has been attributed to noise trading as closed‐end fund shares are predominantly held by individual investors. This study demonstrates that UK investment trust returns exhibit similar excess volatility in spite of the prevalence of institutional investors. However, big investment trusts in terms of market capitalisation show greater excess volatility than small trusts. Although most of the excess volatility appears to be idiosyncratic, investor sentiment index is the most important variable associated with residual returns.     

European technology policy

European countries do less research than Japan and the United States. But their lower level of research effort has more to do with the smaller markets facing European inventors than with lower research productivity. Europe has substantial research potential, in that increasing research effort in most European countries generates bigger income benefits there than increasing research effort in the United States and Japan by equivalent amounts. Research subsidies, enhanced patent protection, support for public research, higher educational achievement and increased integration are alternative routes towards exploiting this potential. These policies increase productivity not only in Europe, but also elsewhere. One problem with implementing such policies at the national level is the potential for free riding. A second possible problem with policies to promote research concerns their distributional consequences. While all countries within the European Union would benefit from increased research output, the countries that are already best at doing research, which tend to be the richer members, do best. The benefits of policies that facilitate the adoption of innovations are more evenly spread among richer and poorer countries.     

Fearful asymmetry: The consumption of accounting signs in the Algoma Steel pension bailout

This paper examines the role of accounting in society by looking at the consumption of accounting signs during the financial restructuring of a corporation. The paper builds upon insights from prior research on accounting as simulacrum and hyperreality. It examines how accounting numbers serve as reconfigurable signs that construct appropriate “crises”, motivate government intervention, and marshal stakeholders towards solutions. The incident at the heart of this study is the 2001 bailout of the Algoma Steel pension plan by the Ontario government. The incident demonstrates how accounting technologies are required both for the production of accounting signs and for their consumption. The paper asks how the production and consumption of accounting signs is different from that of other communication signs, what role consumers of accounting signs play in determining their meaning, and what difference this makes in how corporate pension plans are protected by government. It concludes that the structures and mechanisms surrounding the consumption of accounting signs enable different stakeholders to influence the production of meaning at the moment when accounting signs are consumed, changing the way that risk and wealth are redistributed, and shaping government intervention.     

Data Feature: Earnings Biases in the United Kingdom Regional Accounts: Some Economic Policy and Research Implications

Between the late 1970s and late 1980s, the UK Regional Accounts data suggest a much smaller rise in the South East earnings premium and consequently a much smaller increase in the regional dispersion of earnings than do the other sources of data. We discuss several possible explanations for this discrepancy and conclude it was probably due to problems at the Inland Revenue in allocating tax records across the regions. The historical unreliability of the Regional Accounts has implications for economic research on regional consumption and convergence and may have caused the poorest regions to miss out on EU Structural Funds.     

Proximity and Rationalisation: The Limits of a Levinasian Ethics in the Context of Corporate Governance and Regulation

In this article, I explore how the ideas of French philosopher Emmanuel Levinas offer insights into a debate often held today in the field of corporate governance, concerning the relative merits of statutory and voluntary approaches to the regulation of business. The philosophical position outlined by Levinas questions whether any rule-based systematisation of ethical responsibility, either statutory or voluntary, can ever equate to a genuine responsibility for the other person. I reflect on how various authors have adapted Levinas’s philosophy to form a critique of bureaucracy and rule following in business, and the lack of ethical authenticity in corporate codes. However, this article also considers the question of whether a theoretical separation can be made between an ethical responsibility based on sensibility (as is suggested by Levinas) and a rational conceptualisation of how one is required to act. Considering the difficulty of disentangling these notions of ethics, I return to the problem of corporate governance and suggest an approach to stakeholder conflict based on mediation and dialogue, which rules out neither principles of conduct nor an openness of responsibility to the Other.