The Predictive Value of Earnings, Cash flows and Accruals in the Period Surrounding the Asian Financial Crisis: Evidence from Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand

This paper examines the predictive value of earnings, operating cash flows and accruals in Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand for the period 1994–2001. We also examine the impact of the Asian financial crisis of 1997 on the predictive power of the accounting performance measures. We regress future cash flows and future excess returns on earnings (or cash flows and accruals) for the periods 1994–1996 (pre‐crisis period), 1997–1998 (crisis period) and 1999–2001 (post‐crisis period). Our findings indicate that the accounting measures have explanatory power for 1‐year ahead cash flows. Our analyses of 1‐year ahead excess returns indicate that investors may have undervalued the accounting measures in the pre‐ and post‐crisis periods, and overvalued the measures during the crisis period.     

A threshold model for respondent heterogeneity

Continuous models of respondent heterogeneity assume the existence of a response function where variables of interest are continuously related to explanatory variables. In many situations this assumption may not be true. In this paper we propose an approach of modeling respondent heterogeneity that identifies abrupt changes in the distribution of response coefficients around a threshold specification. Our model differs from traditional threshold models by introducing the threshold effect to describe across-unit behavior as opposed to within-unit behavior. We illustrate our proposed Bayesian threshold model for survey data from a large national retail bank that examines the effects of service wait times on customer satisfaction. We find evidence of a threshold effect where long in-process wait times are associated with bank branches characterized by weak associations between service quality drivers and overall perceptions of service quality. Branches with wait times below the threshold are found to have much stronger associations.     

CAPITAL FORMATION AND THE INTERNET

The Internet is expected to play a significant role in the capital-raising process. Internet investment banks like Wit Capital and WR Hambrecht are supposed to make the IPO process more equitable by giving retail investors access to deals and pricing deals more accurately, thereby leaving less "money on the table" and lowering the cost of going public.
This article argues that the Internet will not replace, but will likely "supplement," the current system. The certification function provided by traditional investment banks and their relationships with institutional investors will continue to be important determinants of a successful offering. Thus, although Internet banks will get pieces of IPO transactions, the lead managers of such deals will continue to be older firms with well-established reputations and ties with institutions.
Nevertheless, the Internet is expected to play a larger role in the case of public bond offerings. Because the issuance of bonds is a repetitive business and the pricing is much simpler, the authors predict that the Internet will significantly reduce the costs of issuing bonds and perhaps limit the role of traditional investment banks in this process.     

Evaluation of supplier capability and performance: A method for supply base reduction

Development of partnership with suppliers is widely recognised today as a potent tool for supply chain improvement. To develop an effective partnership, it is necessary to have a small supply base and an effort to reduce the supply base to a manageable level. Despite its overwhelming importance, models of supply base reduction are rare. Supplier sorting methods, used for pre-selection of suppliers and sometimes seen as methods for supply base reduction, have limitations ranging from (1) requirement of an exhaustive database of historical information (case-based reasoning), (2) inability to predefine the number of elements in a cluster (cluster analysis) and (3) inability to identify suppliers who are both highly capable as well as high performers (data envelopment analysis). In the present work, we develop a systematic framework for carrying out the supply base reduction process. The study assumes two important dimensions of suppliers—performance and capability. Performance of a supplier represents short-term effects on the achievement of supply chain objectives while supplier capability indicates long-term effects. Many of the performance and capability factors are imprecise in nature. In order to account for the imprecision involved in numerous subjective characteristics of suppliers, we use fuzzy set approach to measure the imprecision of these factors and rank a potential list of suppliers against their performance and capability. We then display their ranks in a ‘capability–performance matrix’ that helps a decision maker arrange the suppliers in decreasing order of preference. The desired numbers of suppliers are finally selected on the basis of this ordered list. The suggested framework will be of immense help to the practising managers in reducing the supply base—a prerequisite for building a strong supplier partnership and developing an effective supply chain.     

Pricing on the Internet

It is often claimed that e-commerce has created a more competitiveenvironment by encouraging the entry of new online firms andby enabling buyers to search easily for the lowest prices. Thelimited evidence that exists paints a mixed picture. Many onlinemarkets are advertising- and technology-intensive, creatinga tendency towards growing concentration. Price search is imperfectand firms can dampen price competition by increasing productheterogeneity and switching costs. In many sectors, online firmsmay come to acquire some market power. We look at the formsof pricing that are likely to emerge in such markets, includingthe greater use of price discrimination and auction-like tradingarrangements.     

Policy analysis for growth of a new technology product

Three important aspects of the growth of a new technology product are new product diffusion, rise in productivity, and new product management. The authors maintain that these three aspects are interrelated. The study presented in this paper selected a system dynamics framework to address, in a unified fashion, the above-mentioned aspects of growth in the context of the TV industry in India. The study indicates that (a) in conformity to the present trend, new product diffusion should be treated as a multiattribute phenomenon, and a study of causal factors and their relationships hold the key to understanding this phenomenon, (b) contrary to the prevailing belief, new technology may not enhance capital or total productivity, particularly after the end of the major expansion phase of the product life cycle, and (c) new product growth is generally associated with a loss of market share during the major growth phase and an overcapacity at the end of this phase. Various policy tests on the model reveal that in the case of the Indian TV industry, employee skill has the highest leverage in improving company performance in terms of increased market share, increased productivity and profitability figures, and reduced overcapacity.     

The impact of regulation FD on the information environment: evidence from the stock market response to stock split announcements

This paper examines the information environment effects of regulation fair disclosure (Reg FD). We investigate the stock market response to stock splits in the pre- and post-regulation periods. We find that abnormal returns around split announcement are positive in both periods, but the magnitude of the returns is smaller in the post-FD period relative to the pre-FD period. The difference between the pre- and post-FD period abnormal returns persists even after we control for factors that may affect split announcement returns. We also find that the magnitude of the association between announcement returns and the unexpected portion of the split factor has increased post-regulation. Our analysis of performance trends for split firms reveals that patterns of profitability and changes in profitability in the years around stock splits are similar in the pre- and post-FD periods. However, we find that announcement returns are associated with lagged profitability changes in the pre-FD period, but with future profitability changes in the post-FD period. Collectively, our results imply that Reg FD has reduced information asymmetry and improved price efficiency.     

A comparison of voluntary and mandated climate change-related disclosure

This study draws on legitimacy theory to investigate the relationship between mandatory disclosure of greenhouse gas emissions by companies that are subject to specific environmental legislation (the Australian National Greenhouse Energy Reporting Act 2007) and the level of voluntary environmental disclosures. Using a sample of 535 observations, we find that i) Overall, legislation-affected companies increase their disclosures compared with non-affected companies, ii) As many companies reduce their disclosures as increase them, iii) there is an increase in the level of emissions volume disclosures in legislation-affected companies compared with the same company pre-implementation, iv) legislation-affected higher emitters have higher levels of voluntary disclosures. These findings are consistent with legitimacy theory, which predicts differential disclosures in circumstances to avoid scrutiny.     

Measuring the Accuracy of Federal Reserve Forecasts

Markets across the world pay enormous attention to every economic forecast made by Federal Reserve governors, particularly those from the chair. This article develops a new way that the academic literature can assess the accuracy of these Federal Reserve forecasts. In particular, our proposed method allows for both general and specific predictions to be assessed, while also accounting for the macroeconomic volatility that prevails at the time of the forecast. To develop this measure, we expand upon a methodology proposed by the Wall Street Journal to score the accuracy of forecasts made by the Fed. Our results show that Alan Greenspan was consistently the most accurate forecaster among Fed governors, while the most recent chair in our sample, Janet Yellen, has performed relatively poorly. More generally, we find that the chairs have become less accurate over time with their forecasts and have also tended to make fewer specific predictions.     

Co-ordination, Spillovers, and Cheap Talk

We analyze the role of cheap-talk in two player games with one-sided incomplete information. We identify conditions under which (1) players can fully communicate and coordinate on efficient Nash equilibria of the underlying complete information game; and (2) players cannot communicate so cheap-talk does not alter the equilibrium set of the Bayesian game. We present examples that illustrate several issues that arise when there is two-sided incomplete information. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C72, D82.