The strategic strength of weak signal analysis

Foresight can be seen as a social cognition process involving a complex set of methods and interactive processes intended to assist policy in becoming more adaptive and forward-oriented in unpredictable environments. As a form of foresight raw material, “weak signals” can be thought of as gross, unstructured, fragmented, incomplete and inadvertent environmental data that may be refined into valuable information regarding context and further be articulated into strategically actionable knowledge. As advanced indicators that precede significant discrete one-off events and/or novel developments in the rate and direction of trends, their analysis has the potential to facilitate the real-time alignment between organisational decision-making and changing external circumstances. These predictors of future change pose fundamental problems of identification and interpretation and represent a challenge to established mental models. Thus, the practical significance of weak signals is that they can be transformed into meaningful insight for policy action. Such a value, however, does not materialise automatically. Realising this potential requires a degree of tolerance and fluidity of the collective cognitive frameworks by which weak signals can be apprehended, assessed and acted upon. This paper aims at covering the scope of perceptions and actions typically involved in the tracing and tracking of this shaping process.     

The evaluation of forest crop damages due to climate change. An application of Dempster–Shafer method

In order to assess damage risk caused by climate change in forest areas, Dempster–Shafer theory of evidence and fuzzy measures were applied to develop a framework for the estimation of economic forest damage. According to the definition of risk supported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a function of hazard and resilience lines of evidence was defined. The results of the hazard and resilience assessment were used to develop an economic framework based on Faustmann studies. The evaluation model, implemented through a spatial analysis procedure, was carried out linking Faustmann formula with hazard and resilience raster maps. The model permitted to estimate in monetary terms two possible costs to be supported: the first one is expressed as the expected damage to the forest crop on the basis of the current obtainable woody assortments and the second one referred to the potential expenses to pay in order to mitigate the risk. Finally, the framework was tested on an area of central Italy (Tuscany region).     

Joint estimation using revealed and stated preference data: An application using a national forest

We combine contingent behaviour with travel cost data to estimate the change in the recreational use value of a National Forest due to quality and price changes. Instead of the usual improvement scenario, a hypothetical deterioration in the conditions of the forest due to a fire is considered. A dataset containing five observations for each respondent enabled the estimation of three models for which the number of scenarios differed. The results show that visitors are sensitive to price and quality changes and that in the forest fire scenario the intended number of trips would be reduced and that respondents would experience a welfare loss. Signs of inconsistency between preferences expressed by revealed and intended behaviour were found. This research also provides some indications that strategic bias affects answers to price changes.     

The Meaning(s) of Trust. A Content Analysis on the Diverse Conceptualizations of Trust in Scholarly Research on Business Relationships

Scholarly research largely converges on the argument that trust is of paramount importance to drive economic agents toward mutually satisfactory, fair, and ethically compliant behaviors. There is, however, little agreement on the meaning of trust, whose conceptualizations differ with respect to actors, relationships, behaviors, and contexts. At present, we know much better what trust does than what trust is. In this article, we present an extensive review and analysis of the most prominent articles on trust in market relationships. Using computer-aided content analysis and network analysis methods, we identify key, recurring dimensions that guided the conceptualization of trust in past research, and show how trust can be developed as a multifaceted and layered construct. Our results are an important contribution to a convergence of research toward a shared and common view of the meaning of trust. This process is important to ensure the body of trust research’s internal theoretical consistency, and to provide reliable and common principles for the management of business relationships – a context in which opportunism and imperfect information may induce economic actors to cheat and stray from fair and ethically compliant behaviors.     

Perceived benefits of loyalty programs: Scale development and implications for relational strategies

Positive outcomes of loyalty programs are clear for firms, yet little research examines customer perceptions. To address this gap, this article investigates various perceived benefits of loyalty programs using a multi-benefit framework based on utilitarian, hedonic, and relationship literature. Two quantitative studies, involving 658 French members of loyalty programs, provide a 16-item scale that measures five types of perceived benefits: monetary savings, exploration, entertainment, recognition, and social benefits. The five dimensions have different impacts on satisfaction with the program, loyalty to the program, and perceived relationship investment of the firm. This article offers a discussion of the theoretical and managerial implications of these findings for relationship marketing strategies.     

The development of new higher education courses

The main objective of this study was to present a proposal for a model explaining the construction of a new higher education course to be offered to the market. Having quite a limited theoretical basis and with few investigations dealing with innovation in educational services, a case study was made to help in construction of the model. The case study, supported by studies found and adaptation of innovation in services to the educational sector, made construction of the model possible, and this is divided in three stages: antecedents, development, and implementation of the new higher education course. The proposed model can be useful for managers of higher education institutes when they decide to put new courses on the market. As for the academic field, the study presented attempts to clarify the phenomenon, as well as showing the need for further research into the subject.     

Dynamic Efficiency Measurement: Theory and Application

Nonparametric dynamic measures of production efficiency are developed in the context of an adjustment-cost technology and intertemporal cost minimization. Bounds on each efficiency measure are derived for each firm using a nonparametric revealed preference approach. Long-run efficiency measures indicate the relative efficiency of both variable and dynamic factors while short-run measures of efficiency indicate whether variable inputs are employed efficiently in the production process. The efficiency measures are temporal in nature by describing the degree of efficiency of the firm at a particular point along its adjustment path. The empirical implementation is illustrated for a balanced panel of Pennsylvania dairy operators during 1986–1992.     

Does Economic Growth Really Benefit the Poor? Income Distribution Dynamics and Pro-poor Growth in Indonesia

We explore the nexus between poverty, inequality, and economic growth in Indonesia between 2002 and 2012, using several pro-poor growth concepts and indices to determine whether growth in this period benefited the poor. Our regression-based decompositions of poverty into growth and redistribution components suggest that around 40% of inequality in total household expenditure in Indonesia was due to variations in expenditure by education characteristics that persisted after controlling for other factors. We find that economic growth in this period benefited households at the top of the expenditure distribution, and that a ‘trickle down’ effect saw the poor receive proportionately fewer benefits than the non-poor. If reducing poverty is one of the Indonesian government's principal objectives, then policies designed to spur growth must take into account the possible impacts of growth on inequality.     

Growth machines and social movements in mature tourist destinations Costa del Sol-Málaga

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyse the new processes of tourism growth and its conflicts from the perspective of social movements. First, the urban growth machine analysis model is applied by the systematisation of six projects. Second, the resistance movements against those projects and whether this resistance could be the start of local tourism degrowth policies are examined. The methodology is qualitative, based on documentary analysis, participatory observation, discussion groups and interviews. The case study is the destination of Costa del Sol-Málaga. The results enable the development of the urban growth machine model in tourist destinations. Meanwhile, social movements demystify the argument based on neoclassical economic progress. The social movements condemn the effects of large-scale top-down projects, and implement alternative bottom-up proposals. Although the social movements do not reject tourism, they call for greater control over its impact, denounce unlimited growth, overtourism and the loss of urban quality of life. These movements advocate a lifestyle linked to the everyday space, which they believe is threatened by excessive urban-tourism growth. They are a symptom of the need to devise a proposal using the principles of degrowth.